Short lived rise? 5944 resistance 5890 support

Good morning.
Market Summary for Wednesday
The FT100 opened above 5900 but fell sharply in afternoon trade after U.S. data showed that the economy’s service sector expanded at a slower-than-expected rate, raising concerns that weakness in manufacturing was spreading to other areas of the economy. It briefly fell below 5800 before recovering into the close. A downgrade and poor figures in the finance and banking sector also put downward pressure on the index. Commodity shares performed better as the oil price rose by 5%.

Another day of 100+ swings in the FT100 shows that there is still danger in this market as the volatility continues.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks climbed with the region’s currencies as a selloff in the dollar underpinned a resurgence in crude oil.

A gauge of Asian shares rose for the first time in three days, led by mining and energy companies, while U.S. index futures advanced. Japan’s Topix index declined as the yen surged overnight. South Korea’s won rallied the most in three months and the ringgit climbed 1.5 percent after the dollar tumbled against a basket of other currencies on Wednesday. U.S. oilextended gains above $32 a barrel after jumping 8 percent in the previous session.

“The selloff in the U.S. dollar is supportive of commodities,” said Scott Schuberg, chief executive officer at Rivkin Securities, a brokerage in Sydney. “We’ve been trading under conditions that’s been fairly gloomy. The outlook for China has been gloomy for years now. I don’t really think that there’s too much negative sentiment that could be piled on to this market. Investors should start buying slowly.”

The dollar’s retreat was sparked by data showing the U.S. services sector grew at the slowest pace in nearly two years, underscoring the vulnerability of the American economy to unsteadiness abroad. The report tipped the fixed-income market’s balance closer toward zero rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year, amid prospects central banks from Asia to Europe will act to quell the turmoil that’s roiled markets in 2016. The greenback’s drop helped boost the price of crude oil, along with speculation OPEC and other oil producing nations have agreed to an emergency meeting on market volatility.

China set a range for its economic growth target for the first time in 20 years, saying late Wednesday that the economy would likely expand 6.5 percent to 7 percent this year, slower than last year’s goal of about 7 percent. Gyrations in Chinese equity and currency markets unsettled global trading at the start of the year, with regulators’ response to the volatility fueling anxiety over their ability to manage the slowing economy.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index rose 0.7 percent at 2:49 p.m. Tokyo time, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index up 2.1 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, rallied for the first time in four days. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, a gauge of mainland Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, jumped 1.8 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index advanced 1.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index gained 1.3 percent.

The Topix fell 1.1 percent, headed for its lowest close in more than a week.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.4 percent after the gauge climbed 0.5 percent last session, amid rallies in Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

That was quite a sharp move down yesterday from 5920 to 5790 before an equally sharp recovery to bring us back above 5900. Certainly tricky conditions at the moment, though the long earlier in the day from the 5868 area worked out well for a gain. Volatile has certainly been the trend of the year so far! For today it actually looks fairly positive though there is resistance first thing at the 5945/5950 area so we may see an initial dip, which would work out well to test the 25ema on the 30min at 5910ish, which would be a decent long entry. Its NFP news tomorrow so something to bear in mind today and tomorrow morning, generally at the moment the news flow is fairly positive. Oil is holding steady around the $32 area as well. We have a pretty decent rising channel on the 10min chart as well at the moment with a rise to 6000 showing as possible, and with a cluster of resistance levels around here the bulls might have a bit of a job here. If it goes really bearish today (don’t think it will) then 5827 is the bottom of the 10 day Bianca, with 5800 bottom of the 10 day Raff. So, fairly simple trade plan at the moment, short term looks bullish up to 6000.

208 Comments

  1. Hello chaps.
    Still trying to get my head around yesterday’s antics and the relationship between oil/$/equities moves, will share a few thoughts later.
    Still looks like a sell the rallies over 5900 approach is the way to play it, buy the dips not so much.

  2. Morning all, where did that come from?! Out half of Barclays position for 3 and bit points, nice. Looked at the chart last night, seems when I got stopped on my 5924 long at ’10 that it was a “flash crash”! Dunno what happens from here but I think it might try and push up some.

  3. Morning all,
    Held my short from last night and added at 940, now all closed at 850 🙂
    Might sit today out and wait for tomorrow.
    Gl all

  4. Hey guys, I’m sure we’re all glad that other members are making money, but non real time trade reporting is of limited value to the rest of us.
    Nobody’s doubting your word, but longer term visitors will remember a few people who ‘always made money’ but told us about it afterwards and it has made us (me) a little cynical.

    1. tmfp
      seem to agree with you.
      this forum would be more productive if traders call out their trades – immediately
      with stop & targets. this really would help not only the others in the board but also the announcer him/herself
      hats off to tmfp for this
      and not forgetting our Genius Chairman – Nick. ps. Great call, would’nt expect anything else from the master

      1. Hey guys,to be fair,pretty sure I remember him posting it last night,out of hours,short without a stop loss I think.

    2. Hi tmfp, some of us have day jobs too and trade with stops and when having a peek, sees that the stop has hit or whatever.

      If you prefer me not to post I will refrain from doing so, I have been following this forum for about 2 and half years and have posted very limited posts.
      If you are doubting what I am saying I could upload you some screenshots, something I have also done in the past when I was doubted…

      1. Havies
        from my side, look consider this forum as a constructive place.
        there are many ways to skin the cat, and i am sure your style, reasons for the trade and perception of the market is totally different to the rest of us.
        by posting these reasons, we learn, you learn. after all this is what it is all about.
        tmfp – is clear. it makes u think
        though i just cannot get this image off tmfp from my head
        .
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_bn83Tbnc0

        1. He did post it,”Willing to put the whole weeks profit on this trade, so its staying open and no s/l.” 20 something last night,so he met your criterion.

          1. I don’t have any criteria WSF, it’s not my forum, just a thought about something that’s cropped up in the past.

      2. It doesn’t bother me that much Havies, just saying.
        I know I post a lot of drivel I but try to keep focused on what’s happening now and in the near future, trying out my thoughts and reading others, so we can all get an insight and hopefully make some money..
        What’s gone is gone and congrats.

        1. Well that’s not working is it? Took a -25 bath on the 02, and averaging up the 16 to 26 with another short at 36.

          1. took a handful against average and slimmed the short down to default. One of those sideways morning periods coming up? Hope not..

  6. Morning all,Carney exercising his ego from Midday,think he’s on stage at 12.45.
    Re the NFP thing on Fri cant help wondring if it isnt discounted now the ADP no. yesterday beat expectations by a bit,but not enough to make anyone think it’ll matter with Interest rate decisions,just a thought.

  7. Just to ease the pain a little, will be shorting at 940 again or buying at yesterday’s lows, unless I see something else ot hear something else…
    Will put 20 point stop losses on those and will be looking for 40+ points

  8. morning guys, Havies trade was legit from last night, I think he even mentioned playing with all this weeks profit banking on a fall, with no stop loss. By the way, fantastic call by Nick this morning pre-open by the way…..
    Just gone short at 5933 stop above opening high at 5950, target 5900. Don’t feel we are going to move much from 5900 before NFP tomorrow, play the range 5940-5880?

  9. Out of half at 5921 +12 ticks-running half with s/l at b/e 5933. Think we may have another look for support around 5870ish.

  10. Taken a Long 5920
    target initially 5983 & possibly 6120
    only problem is the stop – placed it 30 points away initially
    formation – inverted H&S & W pattern.
    should really be a breakout trade at 5945, so jumping the gun a little bit
    will probably pay for it

  11. Could be another fail of this 5920-40 region, with gold showing no signs of coming back below 1140 I wonder if it is a pre cursor to another sharp move down to 5870?

    1. Morning Paul,well I love some light hearted banter……..I love your two videos about characters in our little community .Keep it up,I can’t wait for episode three……:0)

      1. I’ve just watched it again……LOL…..I love it……green army…..argyle said that a couple of weeks back:0)…..whens episode three coming out….I just can’t wait…….

  15. Just trying to glean something from yesterday’s action, about the $/oil/equities relationship…
    timeline
    0700 oil starts breaking higher off a bit of a bottom formation, equities follow, $ quiet.
    1030 dollar starts weakening, oil continues up, equities sideways.
    1430 DOW opens and starts selloff as dollar fall accelerates but oil hesitates and pulls back with equities. (or do equities shake out on lack of belief in oil rally?)
    1530 Oil bounces and so do equities but then sideways, $ keeps falling with no pullback
    1900 $ fall stops, oil continues up and equities rally strongly steepens

    So, what was first, chicken or egg? Oil started it and dollar followed, as did equities after thinking about it? Or was the forex big brother on a mission and the others followed it with varying degrees of enthusiasm?
    Or as Chris Weston IG says “a more mysterious theme”?
    What do you reckon?

      1. Still say on a slightly longer timeframe the market is going back up…..T Boone Pickens reckons oil will double by end of 2016…… And I think this is how we will get our market recovery…..I think by spring we may have seen some upward movements that will make tdays prices seem like a bargain……no more thoughts or opinions or feelings now for a bit though …..its what’s in front of us now that matters!

  16. Out of short from 5933 @ 08. +25 ticks.
    Looking to go long at 5900 for move back up to test morning highs. if we break that it could be push through of the neckline of an bullish H&S on the 10 mins. Also see if we get round number support at 5900. Stop at 5875

    1. I have placed a small short on the Dow with 100 point stop…..I’m thinking a dip and rise on the Dow.its from 57

    1. Placed a Ftse long at 90 looking for ten but I have just had to repost because it didn’t show up,mustn’t have pressed submit or something.

    2. Nice one anstel, put these profits in the short ‘bank’, will help your confidence, although 100 stop for 31 profit needs a bit of thinking about.

  22. Groundhog Day for me, make some money off early shorts, reshort late morning and get out through boredom, lack of focus.
    5900 holding okish atm but as anstel says, DAX uninspiring. After yesterday’s stuff, back where we started.
    DOW still showing no inclination to go through 450, or the DAX 9600 and until they do short 5920+ seems like the only plan.

    Both us and DAX breaking lower now, can’t get excited about a long till 50’s.

  23. Anstel going short, good stuff nice +26. We’ll get you through this nasty shortaphobia that you’ve got and look at me, long 5900 and sweating!!

    1. Yeah I noticed you where long…..we have both got to be more flexible …..I’m trying my bloody hardest :0)

  24. OMG, OMG. The most peculiar thing happened to me right now. I didn’t trade yesterday, I didn’t trade today looking occasionally on the charts. Just now I decided, OK I will just place a long trade on my min stake first (actually planned 9420), and logged in into my account. Straight away opened a ticket Germany, £1 and pressed long. Then I briefly noticed some numbers in blue something like £186 or something, then I’ve seen trade accepted and I see no position. What??? Then I looked at my account and it changed the first digit for a higher number!!!! I was really astonished as I was dreaming about it the other day. Then something cleared up in my mind and I remembered that after I had a short 9574 at 4pm on 2nd Feb +20, I put an order for 9607.2 (I must have hoped for some retrace) but I COMPLETELY FORGOT ABOUT IT. Not a trace of it in my mind. Honestly.
    Today, not realizing I closed for 186 points/pounds at 9420.8. Goodness me. That was a pleasant surprise. It was triggered at 7.01 thin morning.
    LOL
    That’s what I mean, the only times I’ve ever made money when I forgot or was dragged from my computer.

    4. That’s fantastic news, I only just read the post……there’s no emotional stress when you don’t know you have a trade on……works wonders…..Nice one Jack and good luck.

  25. anstel
    looks like the bears are out, must be the “rutting season ” or something
    i went in a long – a breakout trade at 45 , like a big hero – too early
    trolling the u-tube for a video for you, not found one yet.
    but reckon paul whitehouse & tmfp are the same, what do u think ?

      1. Oh FFS stop making my bloody laugh……..I can’t see how much money I’ve bloody lost on that Ftse long…….Lol and my undies do ride up :0) hahahahahaha lol :0)

        1. Hey no worries tmfp….I’m probably older than he is anyway………but I have sense of humour !!!!

          2. Lol yeah Havies Poitier……..we love you Sir……now give me some more detention after you have tucked your pants in at the back……lol….Sir :0)

  26. So these things do happen, good luck to you Jack. When I was at Salomon’s our Ftse trader put an order into APT{it was one of the first computerised versions of open outcry} to sell 100 at say 3500{this was mid 90s}. The order was filled near the close of APT{about 6pm} and no one could get hold of the trader overnight. Anyway it was the night before Barings announced their Nick Leeson exposure in Singapore and the guy came into work 150+ ticks onside on a 100 lot which was £25 a contract I think, so 150x100x25- he got sacked about 3 months later!

        1. Think I’ll just sweat it.cant see properly…..I’ve got tears in my eyes! My Dow trade more than covers it if it doesn’t retrace which I think it will.

  29. Long at 60, stop at 40. Only because the Dax is on yesterdays lows, if the Dax breaks, then I may switch short down to FTSE lows of yesterday and long again…

  30. Complete punt – short 1152 in gold with a stop at 54. -£200 if stopped but seen these big moves retrace quickly, looking for pull back to 1141.

    1. Could be, but no meaningful bounce after -75 drop and DAX struggling….+ no-one’s going to take much of a position with unpredictable DOW just round the corner. We might get away with the longs, +20 will do me

          1. I dunno what that means, but it sounds like you set yourself up for a potentially expensive whipsaw selling near the lows while the DAX tests major support.
            Glad you’re clawing your way out, but you could have avoided this by using a realistic stop on the original position.
            You can’t just let stuff drift when it’s this volatile, look all round you, tight stops.
            You talk about ‘communication’ on the forum, but you don’t listen.

          2. I’m trying to tow the line tmfp just old habits die hard.I have to intergrate my views though as well ,after all we do trade our beliefs.I will keep trying to conform though.thanks

          3. All I meant was with the hedge…….it was extremely weak so I sold 5x my long for +8 and got out quick.a bit risky but the weakness was quite extreme.

          4. Yes I realised that was what you were doing, heavily leveraged selling after a two hour long drop to recover losses on an unprotected long.
            While you view basic trading advice as being forced to conform and losing your individuality, then I’ll not waste any more time giving it.
            It’s like telling a kid that running across the road is dangerous and it might be a good idea to look both ways first, and they reply “But it’s fun, don’t tell me what to do, I won’t get run over!”
            GL as always.

          5. tmfp…..basic trading advice is the foundation of everyone’s trading…..all the advise you have given me and others on here is good solid stuff……I know I have to listen to you. you have years of experience,and I’m very grateful for your help advice,input and experience….please dont stop giving it……but please consider sometimes I might see an opportunity that although is unorthodox I feel it’s appropriate for me at that time…….. I can’t help having my own views sometimes. I’m going for a cup of Tea cheers matey.

    2. 1 min’s a bit too narrow these moves anstel, switch to 3 min 8 or 10 for a more reliable short term indicator.

  45. 9250 is a biggest defence barrier. But will it break today? It may do, I don’t see anything stopping it. Oh dear, but not more trades today.

    1. Could this be the last visit to the Sub 5850’s
      US markets look like breaking the highs of 1 feb,
      moved my stop to b/e 5864

      1. Interesting timing too,first annual decline in U.S Factory Orders since 2009 was announced at 15.00. 🙂

  49. Here we are again then, 900’s with the DOW attempting the 450 breakout, 511 the prev high. Worth a short near 920 again?

        2. No, it’s my 3×1 min candle closing above stop level thing anstel, bent the rules v slightly today to make it 3 continual not cumulative Naughty 🙂

          2. Good self discipline, self administered stops. If I do bend the rules, another -5 is usually an absolute line in the sand.

          5. a tick in the price, 0.1, the one that always seems to trigger your stop before moving the other way.

          6. Oh I see thanks…..its like a tenth of a point……I didn’t know it was called a tick…..cheers tmfp.

  52. Popped back in from the cold (and wet) to see I’ve missed a load of fun. Closed vix at b/e so didn’t pay for mistake earlier.

  55. The 17th MHH on the trot coming up today, still just hanging in there with my shorts, it’ll either be 950 or 900 close. Answers on a very quick postcard pls

          1. Let’s hope so…..I haven’t got anywhere near enough confidence on the short side yet…..but we are going to need it at some point….just hope We have enough time to be more comfortable shorting for when we really need it.very well done on that trade..I know I don’t always do stuff the right way Paul but have a look at a video called The thief in the Night by Rande Howell on You Tube…..I don’t think tmfp or Nick would disagree with it……compare it to that trade last week or whenever when you didn’t take the profit…..Its helped me alot but I have to keep watching the video to drive it into my stubborn little head….I thinks it’s sinking in slowly! Up the Bulls :0)

    3. Thanks , I wanted to do my usual …. wait….wait…..and just be bloody pig-headed,
      but too much blue to let go this time

      1. If you’re still bullish, it gives the the freedom to re enter on the inevitable dip with a paid for stop. All good, going for the Big One only works in the movies. Or if your name’s Buffet.
        🙂

  58. A bit early to call that DOW a fail at new highs, but not exactly according to script, 120 off already.
    900+ shorts still working then (wakes up to 6050 in the morning 🙂 )
    Cheers all.

  59. sorry tmfp, had to go and pick my 4 year old up stop is staying at b/e now-running it for a break of 5950 still-would take some now but I really feel a move much lower is imminent-advice……..

    1. I always like to see some immediate fruit for my labours, but no, go for it, if you get through tonight’s DOW at b/e then no reason there’s not a +100 in it.

  60. You’re right, I’ve been scratching around all day picking up +6, +8 etc on £4 or £5. I am currently short £26 @ 5925 so it should be banked. Taken £10 off at 5895(16.43), cheers tmfp

  62. I’m kicking myself Bigtime here……I had the dealing tab open to short the Dow at 471 and didn’t …….oh well.

    1. I pretend not to take myself to seriously GG,and I love a good lark around because it helps me with my emotional regulation…..underneath the front though I’m deadly serious ……it’s very difficult what we are attempting to do so if a little humour lightens the mood it can only be a good thing……mind you,with Paul’s videos earlier ,I had tears in my eyes,I was laughing that much…. and I couldnt see my trade properly…..Good Luck matey.

  64. thinking of your comment earlier tmfp, oil, $ & equities……..dow was under 16250 before oil started that 100+ move to the upside, now oil is back -50 is dow not worth a small sell at these levels 16350? That’s if we are assuming oil is the leading indicator-tell you what, I’ll paper trade 5 dow sell at 16340

    1. I wasn’t drawing any fixed conclusions, things are too volatile for that, it was that support breaking DOW slump that I was trying to put into context. None the wiser really, I think we should just learn to ignore 100+ moves these days, or at least not attach any huge meaning to them.

      Talking of volatile moves, that 95 short cover’s not looking too sad now, is it? 🙂

    1. Yes it was WSF and 6100 for the Ftse……….but I best keep my mouth shut…….How’s you day been buddy….have you made a few points….I hope so :0)

      1. I’m thinking if we get a push up again between now and NFP that a short on the Dow if we get above 16500 could be a good move.im not sure how much above but it would not surprise me if it went above 500 to the 600 area……just when we get comfortable with ranges someone moves the goalposts …..but I will definitely have a stop on that after watching today’s performance.It could be a prime example of buy the rumour sell the fact unless some oil supply cuts come out in which case it’s light the blue touch paper!

      2. anstel
        have you tried the mystical magic potion called
        elliott – 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c
        like with anything ,you either get it or you need a bottle of asprin.

        1. Hi Paul ,….Elliot Wave……yes i have looked at it………don’t want to elaborate really…..I’m sure it works sometimes.

      3. Thanks,yes,good day so far,if they can push a Dow close over 500 the day chart on the Dow will probably give you that bull lead for tomorrow,105 isnt much when they are only 90 odd up on the day.Hope you’ve had a good day 🙂

        1. It been ok some unorthodox points in the bag,I’m not setting myself up to make numbers with three noughts on at the moment……just looking for wages that’s all and trying to improve.I learnt some time ago that bigger position size maybe worked better when the market had a bit more stability……with the volatility we are presently experiencing and 100. – 200 pt moves I think small size is the way to go and make the money through price movement……..not scaring yourself to death with 10s and 20s 50s or whatever in position size……Little and often and try to improve is what I’m trying to do…..learn smallish,and if we ever get through this very difficult period we can use the experience and maybe trade slightly bigger then……no quick fixes in this game……I tried it and the results were less than ideal!

          1. Yeah the Prop guys in that film,the best two,were mostly 40’s 50’s and 60 odd a day,consistently and with decent stakes,that’ll more than do it.

  67. anstel, you are right, I wish I forgot about my last trade long 9267 which was b/e already after a few minutes. But I did close it early. That’s the problem when you watch the price. I need to consider leaving b/e trades and just walk off if I have nothing to lose. It might surprise me later. But I’m quite happy today, 204 points on half stake would result in 102 points.

    1. Make sure you protect your maximum loss so that it is not going to affect your life detrimentally.The market won’t kill us……health and staying fit is more important in my view,.it might upset us and get us dissapointed but unless we can remove the fear from our trading I personally believe we might as well give up……just me matey….lifes too short might as well have a go I say……at least if it all goes pear shaped we can take comfort in the fact we had a good try…….Good Luck Jack 2…..I wish you well.

      1. Hey,Jack well done with the luck earlier,hope you didnt describe it like that at home and cheered everyone up.

        1. WSF, no way I would do that. I am honest here as I see no other way. You know how I struggle to hold and the last couple of days were hard here at home (my partner lost a job) so that order was completely wiped out from my memory. Just gone. I have forgotten orders in the past (last year), I wrote about it here before. Generally I don’t take orders so that’s why I forgot.
          I would post a screenshot if it was possible.

          1. Oh hey Jack,I just meant it might Cheer up your partner a bit if you told her it was at least as much judgement as luck,hope you got her some Flowers or something anyway,always used to think with Horses or something that when it was chance it was good to share it like that.Dow seems to be trying hard to close over last night,definite Bullish push at the moment.Have a great Evening.

  71. http://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/market-news/40068062016/nfp-prep-leading-indicators-warn-of-weakness/

    “The January Non-Farm Payroll report will be released tomorrow at 8:30 EST (13:30 GMT) with expectations centered on a headline print of 192k after last month’s stellar 292k reading. My model suggests that the report could miss even these subdued expectations,with leading indicators suggesting a January headline NFP reading of 160K.”

    “NFP Jobs Created Likely USD Reaction Likely Equity Reaction
    250k Slightly Bullish Slightly Bearish”

    1. Dont know why the no’s didnt copy,basically they think:
      200k to 250k neutral for equities and Bearish above, Bullish below.

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