FTSE Trading Help | Support 6526, 6510, 6488, 6447, 6381 Resistance 6573, 6584, 6608, 6629, 6684, 6754

Good morning. Well that was slightly frustrating as it played out as per the arrows with the rise to 6575 and then fell away but it just missed the short order at 6577 for all those of us that just leave it to do its things. Annoying to have a 150 point rise and then miss the order by 2 points! Anyway, todays another day and never look back as they say. Apart from missing the order I gather lots of you got points on the way up and then on the way back down again as well.

Greece Latest
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was given hours to come up with a plan to keep his country in the euro as citizens endure a second week of capital controls.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said “time is running out” as she and French President Francois Hollande, leaders of the two biggest countries in the euro bloc, responded to Sunday’s referendum. The European Central Bank piled on the pressure by making it tougher for Greek banks to access emergency loans. Finance ministers and leaders from the 19-member region gather Tuesday.

After promising Greek voters a “no” outcome against austerity would strengthen his negotiating hand, the onus is on Tsipras to prove he can get a deal with creditors insistent on tax hikes and spending cuts as the price for a new bailout of Europe’s most indebted nation.

“The last offer that we made was a very generous one,” Merkel said Monday at the Elysee Palace in Paris. “On the other hand, Europe can only stand together, if each nation takes on its own responsibility.”

Heading into the Brussels talks — 1 p.m. for the finance chiefs, and 6 p.m. for the summit — Greece made a pre-emptive concession to its trio of creditors with the resignation of outspoken Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis who clashed with his counterparts from other countries, especially Germany’s Wolfgang Schaeuble. [Ref]

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index rebounding from the biggest drop since February 2014, as investors weighed developments in Greece’s debt crisis before an emergency meeting of European leaders.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4 percent to 144.06 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo after falling 2 percent on Monday. The initial shock waves that hit markets after Greece’s decision to call a referendum on austerity terms dissipated into a ripple by the end of Monday trading, as investors speculated the crisis wouldn’t spread beyond the nation’s borders. Greece is now under pressure to come up with a plan to stay in the euro after Greeks voted to reject further austerity in Sunday’s vote.

“With a muted reaction to the Greece situation from Europe overnight, I would expect a bounce in defensives today after having seen two very solid days of selling,” Evan Lucas, a markets strategist in Melbourne at IG Ltd., wrote in an e-mail to clients. “Clearly the market sees the risks from Greece as being ring-fenced and unlikely to create contagion.”

Euro-area leaders and finance ministers gather Tuesday for an emergency meeting after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said “time is running out” for Greece to come up with a plan to stay in the currency union. The European Central Bank maintained the level of Emergency Liquidity Assistance available to Greece, while tightening terms related to collateral. Greek banks remain shut through Wednesday.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras replaced Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, who resigned Monday after more than five months of fruitless back-and-forth in negotiating with creditors. Tsipras is betting that a less confrontational face will help him bring German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other European leaders back to the table.

Regional Gauges
Japan’s Topix index climbed 1.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index gained 0.7 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index increased 0.3 percent, as did New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to open.

FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.6 percent in most recent trading, after most Chinese stocks fell on Monday as a fresh round of government support measures failed to spark gains outside the largest state-run companies. More than two shares dropped for each that rose on the Shanghai Composite Index, which closed 2.4 percent higher. The ChiNext measure of smaller companies sank 4.3 percent, while the Shenzhen Composite Index retreated 2.7 percent.

China Steps
China suspended initial public offerings and brokerages pledged to buy shares in weekend measures aimed at halting the market rout. Mainland shares posted their biggest three-week slump since 1992 on concern leveraged traders are liquidating bets after valuations exceeded levels seen during China’s stock-market bubble of 2007.

Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.5 percent in the most recent session. The measure sank the most since 2012 on Monday, bringing its decline from an April peak to 11 percent and meeting the common definition of a correction.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 index added 0.1 percent today after the equity measure lost 0.4 percent on Monday. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 1.2 percent on Monday. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction and trading help
FTSE 100 Prediction and trading help

As I write this at 06:25 there is resistance initially at the 200ema on the 30min chart, so I think we will see a slight dip from here. However the moving averages both 10min and 30min are bullish so I think we may well get a rise towards the top of the 10 day Bianca at 6608 today, a good level for a short if seen. We also have the top of the 10 day Raff at 6629 if it overshoots Bianca, and then the 25ema on daily at 6684. Generally, looking at the charts I feel pretty bullish for today though of course a lot will depend on the Greek situation throughout the day, and there are more talks later this afternoon.There is a decline PRT channel with resistance at 6586, which I think we will see some bearishness from if the bulls break the 200ema level at 6563. On the support side of things, we have the daily pivot at 6510, and the T3 trend line at 6526 just above that. If both of those break then the bottom of the 20 day Bianca channel at 6447 is worth a long. The bottom of the 10 day Bianca is a lot lower at 6381, don’t think we will see that unless Greece leaves the Eurozone and then there is a panic sell off. I think the rest of the Eurozone want to keep Greece in otherwise it sets off the domino effect with Spain, Italy, Portugal etc also looking to renegotiate and/or leave.

94 Comments

  1. Morning all, Mr. Bear here.
    What an impressive performance so far sarc/
    I watch a basket of indicators on a U.S. technical site, based on cash trading times.
    Eight time periods (1 min to weekly), moving averages and indicators.
    @ 6525, out of a total of 168 recommendations ranging from strong sell to strong buy, 165 are strong sell.

    1. It’s called technical analysis Argyle, a bit controversial and newfangled, but some people think it’s a better way of predicting market moves than relying on what politicians say and waiting for the Central Bank Cavalry to arrive.
      😉

  5. Just to try and pass the time of day – been reading about Lunar Cycles and Investing!
    Aye up here we go ….6519 …

  6. The actual real FTSE is now trading at new lows for this move according to LSE figures. Previous cash hours low was 6520.98 on 30th June.
    Time for the Cavalry…and here they are, buy, buy, buy 🙂

        1. Well, I mean I know when it happened, at the opening, IG went to 6501 at 08.02, but what I’m saying is that they are bookie/platform prices, not proper Exchange cash trades.

  8. how did the dow reach 17810 in the overnight markets? Is this a break from the ranging with European indices

    1. ?
      It only got above 17800 briefly this morning dragged up by the bullish European pre market about 0600, when 90% of US traders were in bed. Doesn’t mean anything.

  9. Well that’s that micro support at 23 broken, time to attack the lows
    DAX has been quietly melting down, over 100 points since 8 am.

      1. Also pinged <20 1min rsi for a cheeky little long which has just yielded 12.
        Looking to short around here 28 for a 3rd test of the lows.

    1. Yeah, all over its shoes….. lol I’m so funny 🙂
      I see quite a crucial DOW performance this pm. Europe’s obviously as weak as a kitten despite all the rhetoric and fears of direct CB buying support, but the DOW’s within striking distance of key support @ 17600.
      Everything’s very vulnerable imo.

      1. oil prices are very low, that should drag down a lot of firms and its even more uncertain with Greece, no both the germans and greek will not budge

        1. Yeah I took squillions on my short at 80, should have longed, looking for a good bounce to sell again.
          Maybe 505 or 17650 equiv DOW.

          1. Missed the dead cat 🙁
            This is type of situation where RSI should be used with caution Hugh 😉

  14. How is gold also dropping? I know there’s strong resistance but whers all the cash going?

    1. Thanks mate.
      I’ve made no secret of being a bear for a while have I?
      Today just felt very weak from the start. When that coincided with seeing the supposed 17600 support on the DOW being so tempting for the bears over there to attack, it all fell into place.
      I covered my shorts too early as usual, but that closing finesse was great. 🙂
      Still looking for 6100-6300.
      GL

        1. There’s one going on at the moment, back up to 6470 now.
          Dead cat, worth a short?
          17600 has got to be resistance now on the DOW, if it can’t close over that then it could be 17200 next stop, which is low 6300’s?

  19. Do Greek banks start to be inoperative (bust) tomorrow, failing agreement today? This mess underlines the fragility of the EC, due in part to the economic imbalance within it.

    1. I don’t normally trade out of hours but I think 95’s worth a short 15 point stop

        1. Play it by ear I think, 100+ DOW points down from here = ~6450?
          Be out by 21.30 whatever.

        1. I was expecting maybe 17660 after the big fall, but this last 100 point rise is inexplicable to me.
          We were promised Fed buying, maybe it’s that.

          2. Whatever, it will make an interesting candle formation.
            An ‘engulfing dragonfly doji’ looks like being the daily on the DOW, which is amazing bullish apparently.
            Wouldn’t that be something, to be able to manipulate the markets, not only up or down, but also in to certain technical patterns?
            Then you just sit back and the market takes over and does what you want because of the pattern you forced it into.
            Anyway, this foray into after hours trading reminds me why I don’t do it lol.
            I shall take a 2 point loss to add to the earlier 23 point one and bid you Goodnight 🙂

  23. look at the bounce. Is this not market manipulation. Is there literally some stop loss hunter out there cleaning out all the little retail traders

    1. Lol calm down Senu, there’s no gaps anywhere yet, we’re just back where we were 12 hours ago.
      Goodnight.
      🙂

  25. I’ve put a small short on at 6530. I don’t buy that the market is going to gap up 100points from today’s close – there’s no major news tonight so am looking for it to pull back as we approach the “real” open at 8am. Reckon pivot is around 6470 so would be happy with that!

    1. Well played mate.
      That 6530 bounce was baffling. After 12 hours at it my brain wasn’t functioning otherwise I’d probably done the same as you.

        1. Morning All – Yes got my fill (From RSI Sell Trio 6520) – making up for some pretty poor trading yesterday !
          Today I’m thinking back up to 6486 area & Short here. If it breaks/closes higher than 6493 this then I’ll have a rethink..

          1. Good stuff Hugh, there’s always going to be the times when RSI based trading is going to go wrong, that’s why I suggested looking at the stop loss side of things.

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