FTSE 100 resistance 7061 | support 7007 6983 | Clinton wins debate | Asia rose

FTSE 100 Support 7007 7006 6983 6937 6913
FTSE 100 Resistance 7039 7061 7064 7072 7095 7130

Good morning. Most frustratingly my long order at 6974 missed by 1 point before the rally kicked in and we rose to 7030. Some platforms saw it trigger but mine didn’t unfortunately. The afternoon rally was helped by the oil report showing a decline in stockpiles and also the 9 point divi, and once again we are back above 7000! Resistance has moved up slightly to 7061 now. Last night’s presidential debate saw Hillary come out on top again, with the general consensus that it’s hers to lose. Gold has also started moving up now from the recent lows, so the long term longs at 1250 are looking better now. I expect we will see 1300 soon.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks rose with U.S. equity index futures and the Mexican peso as the third and final American presidential debate was seen strengthening Hillary Clinton’s prospects of winning next month’s election. Oil traded near a 15-month high after an unexpected drop in American stockpiles.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed to its high for the month, led by energy shares after crude rallied to more than $51 a barrel on Wednesday in New York. The peso, which tends to strengthen when Republican candidate Donald Trump’s chances of victory recede, rose to a six-week high. Australia’s dollar lost ground versus all of its major peers following an unexpected drop in employment, while the euro held near its weakest level since July ahead of a European Central Bank policy meeting.

The latest head-to-head between Clinton and Trump shed little new light on their policies and had less impact on financial markets than their two previous exchanges, which triggered jumps of at least 2 percent in the peso. A CNN/ORC poll of debate watchers showed 52 percent judged Clinton the winner, compared with 39 percent for Trump. Investors are counting down to the Nov. 8 election and a Bloomberg Politics national poll conducted Oct. 14-17 showed a nine percentage-point lead for the Democratic nominee.

“The peso is slightly stronger, possibly implying there was nothing in the debate to significantly swing polling away from Clinton,” said Imre Speizer, a market strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Wellington. “Risk sentiment is likely to remain positive in the wake of the debate.”
While the ECB is seen leaving policy unchanged at Thursday’s review, investors will be looking for signals regarding the outlook for its quantitative-easing program. Indonesia also has a central bank meeting and 46 percent of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast interest rates will be cut in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy.

Stocks

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was 0.5 percent higher as of 12:20 p.m. Tokyo time, with a gauge of energy shares surging 1.7 percent. Japan’s Topix index gained 0.8 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.7 percent, the best performances among regional benchmmarks.

S&P 500 Index futures increased 0.2 percent, while contracts on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index gained 0.3 percent.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index stabilized near a one-week low. The Aussie weakened 0.5 percent versus the greenback after data showed employment fell by 9,800 in Australia last month, compared with an increase of 15,000 forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey.

Mexico’s peso strengthened as much as 0.4 percent to 18.4558 per dollar, the highest level since Sept. 8. The currency has advanced about 5 percent this month as opinion polls pointed to a growing likelihood that Trump will lost the coming election. The peso has been sensitive to Trump’s fortunes because he’s proposed renegotiating or ending trade deals with Mexico and blocking remittances to force the country to pay for a wall along the U.S. border.

“With the polls so heavily in Clinton’s favor, markets are priced for her victory,” said Sean Callow, a senior strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “There probably would only have been a sharp move in markets if Trump had performed extremely well, which wasn’t the case.”

The ringgit rose 0.3 percent as the last session’s increase in oil prices brightened prospects for Malaysia, Asia’s only major net exporter of crude.

The euro was little changed at $1.0973 as traders await the ECB’s policy meeting for signals about its record monetary stimulus efforts. Most economists in a Bloomberg survey predict it will prolong its 1.7 trillion-euro ($1.9 trillion) bond-buying program in December and won’t start to taper its asset purchases before the second half of 2017.

Commodities

Crude oil declined 0.4 percent to $51.39 a barrel in New York, after surging 2.6 percent on Wednesday. Official data showed U.S. supplies dropped by 5.25 million barrels last week to the lowest level since January, while all 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast an increase. Many nations are willing to join the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in cutting production, according to Saudi Arabia’s energy minister.

Bonds

U.S. Treasuries due in a decade were little changed and yielded 1.75 percent. The securities have slumped in October as a bond-market gauge of inflation expectations rose to the highest in five months. The probability of a U.S. rate increase by December has climbed to 64 percent, fed fund futures indicate, from 59 percent at the end of September.

“If you want to buy bonds, it’s not a good time,” said Hiroki Shimazu, an economist and strategist at the Japanese unit of MCP Asset Management in Tokyo. “Whoever wins the presidential election will be negative for the bond market because they’ll plan a large economic stimulus package. There’s higher inflation.” [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

For today I am thinking that, certainly initially, the rise that started at 6976 is going to run a bit further and probably test the top of the 10 day Bainca channel at 7061. We also have R2 at 7063 and the 10 day Raff at 7072 so a short around this area looks viable. Initially I think the pivot at 7007 will hold as the bulls will once again be keen for 7000 to remain in tact, though the bears are probing the lower levels with more vigour so we could well see a break down soon.

With gold rising from the 1250 level now (though granted gold versus indices are not as correlated as they once were) we could see the buying stall a bit on the FTSE. So, watching 7007 and 7060 as the main levels, with lower support at the 6983 area – might be worth a long here too if it got that low. If the bulls manage to break 7072 then 7100, and probably 7130 are likely – the latter being the most recent high and if broken then the bulls will be turbo charged…. so 7070 area is pretty key for the bears today!

88 Comments

        1. …and financed totally by personal debt increase.
          Now at £1.5tn, forecast £2.5tn in the next five years.

          1. I watched a video on you tube on a prestige car company deposing of cars….crushing…..there was not one car you would not be proud to have on your drive…..they blew the airbags in a controlled manner,removed the cat for the platinum…drained all fluids….ripped engine out with a mechanical claw …then crushed the shell…I would imagine ….just guessing that they would have been taken in PX at a dealership and then removed from the second market to increase demand….. It was quite shocking TBH when some people in the world go to great lengths to keep their older car roadworthy due to lack of resources….The new cars keep the finance company wheels in motion too creating more debt…somebody’s smiling…..I wonder who?….

            1. Wow. Not sure what to think about that. There’s me trying every trick in the book to keep my old galaxy on the road…

  1. Managed to get out of that legacy short at Nick’s 07, looking for that 00/7 area to hold this morning before another go at 30. Doesn’t feel like a bear day so far, next support around 80.
    Draghi again today, if he hints at taper of QE could perversely be bullish, who knows?

  2. Daily trend still up until we breach 6975…seems buyers at 7007 today…I think we could see lower prices before US election as big players will want better value…

  3. Morning all
    Its a bit dead out there! Even retail sales didn’t seem to have much effect – they came in flat, which to me seems pretty bad even though its a rise from previous month. I say it seems bad, as I was expecting sterling weakness to be more supportive.

  4. Challenge for all could be simpler to one!- anonymous

    If pivot holds, 2hr is still bullish I Am running a long from@11 ! Should see some fire works soon ! Just dun get burn

      1. For me 3hrs resistance is @35.5 and if it goes past in one go then take it and close it and wait ge the candle to form! Very possibly can turn around from that area who knows !! That’s the fun

        1. As a trader we do most of the times share our trade Strategies but rarely we do about our emotional ride, we go through in that durations . Would like to share some of experiences I had I. Past
          1. Some day I hit nice trade running and I am thinking should I take the profit and I did, sooner than I can anticipate it goes in reverse and I am thinking that was good call
          Some day it continues very after I close my trade and I thinking sh*t I should have waited.
          Now in both situation I thought I was doing right at that moment.
          My question in order to avoid chasing market and end up losing and also dealing with emotions once positions is close.
          Do you guys take break after every transaction or have some decided %only to lose after winning trade.
          Feel free to comments

      1. Talk about overproduction……..so it’s more profitable to trash the 2-3 yr old stuff and try and sell some of the “new” stuff that’s been rusting in an uncovered storage facility……… Sooner or later they will have to reduce production………that’s what the scrappage scheme was all about a few years back….Its taking planned obsolescence to a whole new level……Thanks for posting JSft……

  5. moved stop to break even (7012) – should probably haven taken profit at 7025, now wondering if it’ll pullback – may be still climbing though… fingers xd.

  6. A little caution in the short term for any slow burning longs, based on that negative 11.15 3 min candle, would want to see 27 retried in the next 15 minutes or that might be far enough for the moment.

    1. Yes just to keep the wheels of industry turning…..and off course lots of vat on the sales of new stuff…..if they can’t sell enough treasury bonds they can get a few pounds extra this way….

  7. As a trader we do most of the times share our trade Strategies but rarely we do about our emotional ride, we go through in that durations . Would like to share some of experiences I had I. Past
    1. Some day I hit nice trade running and I am thinking should I take the profit and I did, sooner than I can anticipate it goes in reverse and I am thinking that was good call
    Some day it continues very after I close my trade and I thinking sh*t I should have waited.
    Now in both situation I thought I was doing right at that moment.
    My question in order to avoid chasing market and end up losing and also dealing with emotions once positions is close.
    Do you guys take break after every transaction or have some decided %only to lose after winning trade.
    Feel free to comments

  8. Manage to squeeze my daily target out of that tight range ! Will be back around the bells ! Like I said trade too live not live to trade

  9. I manage to get more than 25 pips mr benson ! Rest Depending on position. Size ! That being said quick long @7000 out for 7!! Everything adds up tbh

    1. Nice! I am only flirting with £1pp on resistance and supports (mainly resistance at mo), but would luv 2 be able to get the pips that you chaps do, with bigger stakes. I would be able to give up my silly jobs then!…ha ha wishfull thinking

      1. Stay small mrbenson……don’t get seduced by the carrot of big profits…..it’s more important to maintain your disipline ……make £5 -£10 a trade at £1 pp scalping and learn the markets….it so very hard to get money back once you have lost it…..concentrate on what you could lose …not what you could gain…….and be scared of failure and you will succeed slowly….if one day you don’t like the markets and you don’t see any set ups,step down till you do…..good luck…

      1. Lol yes ! Very rarely I trade like this but one bad one and normally stop. Like strictly off the computer ! Have a good one

  10. That was fun – i used ahem ‘aggressive averaging’ to turn a profit going long the dow + dax.
    Daily target done, but will keep playing to make up for yesterdays loss.
    Where next on the open of US ?

      1. You’re on fire today young man 🙂 Enjoy it.
        I took out some long at 40 rest going at 45 short 50

          1. That was lucky, just going to press the buy button and it fell out of bed. Long at 15 but for diff reason.

          2. and a big bit more at 04, 12 rsi on DOW and FTSE 1 min lol.

            Took the inevitable +7, kept a little.
            Fun times

  11. Will the DOW make its first hourly close above 18235 for the first time in over a week?
    Fresh air then till ~400….

  12. Thanks for appreciation guys! Long @ pivot for some bell time rally if there is any ! Not to forget 3 hrs turned bullish with those highs! Rest all abra ka dabra!!

  13. Well, that turned out alright after a quiet start.
    Still stuck between 7000 and 7055 though. Time for another visit to the latter tomorrow?

  14. Good start went long. At pivot this morning out for 15! Runnning a short from 43, 5 min rsi out at 32

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