FTSE 100 Support 7005 6996 6964 6941 6916
FTSE 100 Resistance 7027 7055 7057 7078 7082 7130
Good morning. Interesting and slightly odd day yesterday, with the 7007 long not doing much till the ECB news and Draghi speaking, then climbing to 7035 before dropping back. Asia has been weak overnight, not helped by weaker earnings data. Draghi signalled that there would probably not be any QE tapering, and that March 2017 will not be an abrupt end to it. Those comments helped the Dax bounce back from the 10600 low to hit 10747, before settling around the 10700 area.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks snapped a three-day winning streak as corporate earnings gave cause for caution and the euro sank to its weakest level since March. Crude oil retreated amid skepticism major producers will limit output.
About eight shares declined for every seven that rose on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, with Healthscope Ltd. and Keppel Corp. sliding in the wake of results. The euro slipped for a fourth day after the European Central Bank signaled on Thursday that its quantitative-easing program is likely to run past the currently scheduled end-date of March 2017. The yuan fell to a six-year low after China’s central bank weakened its daily reference rate by the most since August. U.S. crude extended losses below $51 a barrel after Russia’s largest oil company said the nation could boost production.
The latest batch of worldwide corporate earnings has presented a mixed picture with lackluster forecasts from Nestle SA and EBay Inc. being countered by upbeat news from companies including Microsoft Corp. and Deutsche Lufthansa AG. ECB President Mario Draghi said Thursday that the authority’s bond-buying program will likely be tapered before it is halted. The hint of an extension to its record stimulus comes as the Federal Reserves weighs the case for its first interest-rate hike of the year, with traders betting a move will come in December.
“There’s no shortage of things that will generate volatility,” said Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners in Wellington, which manages about $7.2 billion. “But unless something comes out of left field, the Fed will hike in December and that means the economy is on a solid footing and that’s positive.”
Financial markets in Hong Kong are closed Friday as Typhoon Haima lashes the city. Malaysia is scheduled to announce its budget for 2017 and a speech by Fed Bank of San Francisco President John Williams may shed light on the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. Daimler AG, General Electric Co. and McDonald’s Corp. are among companies reporting results.
Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3 percent as of 2:04 p.m. Tokyo time, trimming this week’s advance to 1.2 percent. Benchmarks in China, India and South Korea declined by less than 0.5 percent. Japanese shares were little changed before the nation’s earnings season ramps up next week, with more than 350 Topix index companies set to report results.
Healthscope plunged as much as 27 percent in Sydney after saying that first-quarter revenue growth at its hospitals unit was slower than expected. Keppel was set for its biggest loss in more than a month after the world’s biggest oil-rig builder announced a drop in profit and more job cuts. Nintendo Co. shares dropped by the most since July after the company’s new Switch gaming platform failed to impress investors. Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the country’s second-largest producer, rose 0.5 percent in Shanghai after the company said it swung to a profit in the third quarter.
Futures on the S&P 500 Index were down 0.2 percent. Microsoft surged as much as 6.2 percent in after-hours trading after first-quarter sales and earnings topped analysts’ estimates. Senior executives at AT&T Inc. and Time Warner Inc. have met in recent weeks to discuss various business strategies including a possible merger, according to people familiar with the matter.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.2 percent as the dollar strengthened versus most peers. South Korea’s won was the worst performer among major currencies, sliding 0.8 percent.
The euro dropped as much as 0.3 percent to $1.0896, falling for the first time through the low recorded on June 24, when the outcome of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union was announced. Draghi said Thursday that officials didn’t talk about extending or tapering the institution’s 1.7 trillion-euro ($1.9 trillion) quantitative-easing program. That leaves traders waiting until at least December for news about policy changes.
“It’s a double-whammy from the ECB meeting,” said Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at ThinkMarkets in Singapore. “Draghi didn’t talk tapering and suggested easing in December. That’s got traders pricing in a weaker euro.”
China’s yuan fell as much as 0.2 percent to 6.7590 per dollar in Shanghai, weakening beyond the 6.75 level that it was forecast to reach by year-end. The onshore yuan has declined in all but one session this month as the People’s Bank of China allowed a drop past the 6.7 level that was previously seen as its line in the sand. In offshore trading, the currency was within 0.5 percent of the weakest level recorded since trading began in 2010.
“The continued dollar strength has weighed on the yuan,” said Andy Ji, a Singapore-based currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “The PBOC won’t fight dollar strength, and it won’t draw a line, at least in the next few weeks.”
Malaysia’s ringgit fell for the first time in four days. Prime Minister Najib Razak will present the government’s budget for next year as he seeks to bolster an economy that’s forecast to expand at the slowest pace in seven years, while sticking to plans to rein in the fiscal deficit.
Commodities
Crude oil fell 0.4 percent to $50.41 a barrel in New York, extending Thursday’s retreat from a 15-month high. Rosneft PJSC Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin said Russia is capable of a substantial boost to production less than two weeks after President Vladimir Putin pledged his support for international efforts to limit output. Nigeria also said Thursday that it cut the price of every type of crude it sells in an effort to boost its global oil market share.Aluminum climbed for the first time in six days in London, trimming this week’s loss to 3.3 percent, still the steepest drop in three months.
Smelters in China, the world’s biggest producer, boosted output last month to the highest in more than a year, according to data released Wednesday.
Gold was headed for its first weekly gain in four as investors continue to boost holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by the metal. Assets in such funds increased on each of the last seven days to the highest level since June 2013.
Bonds
The yield on benchmark U.S. Treasuries due in a decade fell one basis point to 1.75 percent. It touched a four-month high of 1.81 percent this week as higher oil prices spurred speculation inflation will gather pace.
China’s 10-year bond yield held near a record low, having fallen three basis points this week to 2.66 percent as data showed industrial output missed estimates last month and a weakening yuan spurred concern about capital outflows. That’s two basis points off the lowest level since Bloomberg started compiling ChinaBond data in 2006.
“It’s still a matter of debate whether economic fundamentals have turned better,” said Luo Yunfeng, a fixed-income analyst at Essence Securities Co. “It’s possible that, some time next year, the economy might show some sort of weakness again.” [Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
For today I am still looking at the the 7055 area as decent resistance as the 10 day Bianca has dripped back down to this (was 7061 yesterday) so if we get a rise to this area I feel a short ahead of the weekend here is worth a go. Support wise, 6995 is the coral line on the 2 hour chart so should hold on a first test, however I feel like the worm might be turning and we will be on a path down towards 6800 before too long. The bulls failed to make that rise to 7035 hold with any conviction yesterday and the markets were just “choppy”, even with the prospect of no QE taper from Draghi.
A break of 6995 however and the bottom of the Bianca channels loom into view at 6941 and 6916 so shorting a break of this level is worth a go. A break for me would be a 10 minute candle closing below 6995. So, fairly simple plan today, looking at 6995 initially, 7055 for resistance.
Morning all! morning provided some movement for quick ones!
Currently running short from 40 Target 7005
FTSE still strong dispite US futures being negative…think 7007 was key yesterday…so long above short below..
Morning.
Pretty boring out there, quietly decaying away after a half hearted opening push.
DAX dead as a dodo. Might continue down to test the 7000 area again, but not worth a short for me.
The week looks like fizzling out undecided, around the middle of the 6930/7130 range.
5 mins turning into bear ! Hopefully nick’s 6995 is not too far
I was just thinking the opposite, that it may hold the 20’s for a while..
Is it options witching? That 10.10 action implies it is, I forget?
Its diffrent rise than this morning ! 57 can be good short entry if reached quickly
yes it was…
Out @24 will wait for a while
Lol what a timing !!
Nice reshort chance, doubt it will hold
Glad I took 10 on that short, looks like a third attempt at 45 coming up, although getting a little overbought, small pullback then breakthrough says my money, next stop 55.
Finally got through to 53, real nomansland now, squeezed in between 45 and 55. Needs to push on but very quiet.
Stop at 35 and flip to short?
Shouldn’t really, but took half out at 59
Hello chaps, general question to all…do any of you use level 2 data for general trading, and if so, could you point to a provider that has a simplistic version of it? I cant seem to find any clear tutorials for using level 2. I thought somebody somewhere would have run a day seminar or something to teach, but apparently not. Thanks in advance.
There’s a bit about if you Google it. IG have a DMA download.
A bit of a rabbit hole for me, too much complexity, can’t see the wood for the trees sort of thing.
Took +10 on the short of that blip.
Ok thanks tmfp.
Hi mrbenson, funny you should post that, I’ve been looking into reading the tape this week……type ADVFN into Google…..you can register for free……then you get three monitors you can customise….I have one that I have put all the constituants of the Ftse into…….but you only get a brief time when the markets moving to read the prices…..when you look to subscribe to ADVFN there is an option to subscribe to level 2 data, it’s approx £490 per annum or about £43 a month……there is an ebook you can download free that explains the basics of level 2 data..
Have a look @ priceaction.com. ……..tape reading and order flow as well it’s interesting…
Typo…..it’s priceactionroom.com Tape reading and order flow …..
Many thanks indeed anstel. Are you subscribing to advfn?
would be nice to get a sell off today…
Gone long @40
I have a short order at 7057 sitting there waiting all this week. Hard not to just hit the button all week since Monday
Took 5 ! Waiting for short entry may be @r1
I’m off for some real life. have a good day chaps, see you monday.:)
Have a good weekend surely this week been a quite one ! But Friday evening make it up for it lol! See you Monday
Ah missa fooh-see – you so strong. Love you long time.
Lol :0)
My rocket is workin tday :0)…… I put the Lego bricks back together….
7100 :0)
ten dolla
It’s hits 7055 now nick . Question is will it drop?
tenterhooks!
Short 57
Me too
Out For 10
Pretty evenly poised here at 48, right on the 3 min uptrend but looking a bit tired.
Uptrend gone and so am I
52 long 48 stp
Out for 2.. not so strong
48 shorted and wooooo
Dow looks poised to bust through to the south. Come on.
BUSTED
What makes you say that?
#thefamouscrystalball I guess!!
The fact that he’s short. Si talks a good book. 😉
Haha!
Added @55as a saparqte one ! Will close once 3 mins candle is formed
closed for 20 other one running
its sinking
Hello all.
Short on Dax @ 10698 FTSE ( multiple ) and Wall Street 18148
Long Brent crude 5060
Calling a fall!
all closed @23 .. let other earn some
Gold moving up and ftse crashing. Nick where are you planning to close your short. I’m thinking just below 7000
7000 ideally, taken some at 7020 though
Am also long on gold today at 1262 and 1264
I’m holding out for just below 7000. I’ still have my long gold from 1261 from the other day
Nice, I have some at 1250 tucked in a bottom drawer!
All of a sudden no buyers, you got to love it!
Apart from me, on rsi for some sort of bounce…
Tin foil hat ? :0)
Long at 19.8 amongst other places…
Long at 30 and 18, what to do….
Lose some at 26 and wait for the yanks I think is prudent
I honestly don’t know what to do around here, 17/060’s. Bizarre end to a weird week.
Will hold the small long, hopefully for a closing rally. Don’t like using the word hopefully when trading.
Must be the news about online gambling regulation. Wonder will it affect spread bet companies also!
It’s 2.30, it’s #crystalball time! We are going DOWN!
Rampers are running out of steam here
005 long order patiently waiting for the rally train ..
Rally train is cancelled today – haven’t you heard? 🙂
Cup and handle formation on gold (4hr)? I’m going long (again)
Big fall coming asap
Lots of downward pressure. Glad I waited and didn’t sell earlier in the week
The DOW isn’t doing a lot…
Trying to break and hold above 080 again, might have some legs if it does.
Quite a decisive break and hold above 80 so far, gave me an opportunity to dump the rest of my FTSE long at 30.
Have a good weekend all!
it would be nice if it bombed..
It will!
You mean drop?
Yes!
5:30 drop, if it hasn’t started by then we won’t see one is my guess !?
Now or next week it is