FTSE 100 Analysis | Support 6581, 6547, 6516, 6446 Resistance 6586, 6628, 6788, 6813

Good morning. Well we got the rise towards 6650 yesterday but unfortunately it didn’t dip down to the 6546 order level for the ideal long entry. Was just a case of hopping on and riding it up. It stalled at about 6640 as profit was banked and more uncertainty over Greece. I saw that IG have now also raised their margin requirements (following Intertrader last week) from Friday for trades Friday afternoon and over the weekend – so they are expecting increased volatility then. The US is closed tomorrow so we have the NFP figure being released today at 13:30.

Greece – latest
European stocks advanced amid investor optimism that Greece and its creditors can work out a bailout deal and keep the Mediterranean nation in the euro area.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras signaled he’s prepared to compromise on the starting point for talks. Shares trimmed gains after he reiterated his call for voters to reject austerity measures in Sunday’s referendum.

Greece has already missed a $1.7-billion payment to the International Monetary Fund, after previous proposals to creditors were rebuffed.

“It seems they are on their way towards some type of a deal,” said Otto Waser, chief investment officer at R&A Research & Asset Management AG in Zurich. “It’s a first step, and if they decide there is room for negotiation, the markets will stay up. One percent of the advance is just a rebound from previous days’ losses and the rest because of this new proposal. Ultimately, Greece will stay in the euro.”

Three days of capital controls, rationing pensions and the expiry of its bailout pushed the Greek government to say it’s willing to accept creditors’ latest offer as a basis for compromise. Sunday’s referendum remains a stumbling block, along with disagreements over pensions, spending and taxes. Tsipras called for voters to reject austerity measures to help strengthen the government’s negotiating position. [Ref]

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose for a third day, following gains in Europe and America, with a weaker yen buoying equities in Tokyo as investors awaited developments in Greece and U.S. jobs data.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1 percent to 146.69 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index advanced 1 percent after the yen slid 0.5 percent Wednesday. Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index gained 3.3 percent after Chinese securities regulators relaxed margin-trading rules and cut equity-transaction fees in their latest attempts to prevent its bear market from deepening.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.7 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 1.5 percent after two days of declines as Greece signaled it was ready to compromise on ending a standoff over bailout aid. The bid was rejected by euro-area leaders, who have said they won’t hold talks until after Sunday’s referendum on creditors’ demands.

“There has to be a negotiated deal there and I think the market believes there will be at the end of the day despite the drama,” Michael Cuggino, a fund manager at Pacific Heights Asset Management LLC in San Francisco, told Bloomberg TV. “Corporate earnings in the second quarter along with the labor data will give us an indication as to what we’re going to see going forward.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed and South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index advanced 0.2 percent. Hong Kong’s market reopens Thursday after a holiday.

China Futures
FTSE China A50 Index futures trading in Singapore gained after the China Securities Regulatory Commission said it will no longer require brokerages to force the sale of stock held by clients with insufficient collateral, and will allow “reasonable rollover” in margin trading. China’s two bourses will reduce the fees by 30 percent starting Aug. 1, the Shanghai Stock Exchange said.

Chinese stocks have been on a rollercoaster over the last two weeks with investors torn between hefty valuations and the government’s efforts to prop up the market.

In the U.S., companies added 237,000 workers in June, the most in six months, data from Automatic Data Processing Inc. showed Wednesday. A separate report showed manufacturing expanded in June at the fastest pace in five months, indicating domestic demand is allowing American factories to withstand sluggish overseas economies.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 were little changed on Thursday. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook & Analysis

FTSE 100 Prediction and analysis
FTSE 100 Prediction and analysis

I’m feeling a little bit bullish to start off with today, and think that we may well get a rise from the 6581 level. There hasn’t been much bearishness overnight (and we have had a pretty positive ASX200 Australia session) and also since the 30min chart rolled over to bearishness at 8pm last night we have only dropped 10 or so, whereas I would usually expect a bigger reaction from that. The pivot today is 6586 so we are just on that as initial resistance, but I think we are going to head up to 6626 where we have the 200ema on the 30min, with the 25ema on the daily at 6734 above that for a bigger picture resistance level. There is the the top of that rising 30min channel at 6666 first so might be worth a short there with a tight stop.

All that said, if the 6581 level breaks then I think we will likely see the bottom of the 20 day Bianca channel at 6516 and if it gets really bearish the bottom of the 10 day at 6446. We are not out of the woods yet with regards to resolving the Greece situation and I am still watching the S&P for a rise to 2095 before more downside. So cautiously bullish for today.

76 Comments

  1. i am short 6619 with initial exit plan for around 6595, now revised to 6580 atleast. All in real time logged in 1st july page

    1. Nice one.
      When things are quiet, let us know a bit more about your black box if you want. Is it a subscription service you pay for, or what?

  2. First trade today short @ 20, it’s like Groundhog day lol.
    Coming out now @ 6600, looking for a little bounce to reshort.

        1. 6600 holding alright atm, if we get through 10 could be another look at 20, but quiet and range bound really.

  4. senu

    Senu says:
    July 2, 2015 at 9:20 am
    Hello mate, you still hoping for 80 to close?

    No – not 6580 – now 6583

  5. Tgt to close gaps but lets see. May have to revise. Was looking for an impulse rally but that didn’t quite happen yet

  6. Kicking myself,still long from yesterday at 6575,had planned on closing at 6625 but it hit 6620 then declined.hoping for another shot at it if we get a push up on Dow due to NFP

  8. Hope so Icarus,it’s a good username that,when you get too close to the sun your wings melt, there’s a moral in there that applys to trading !!

    1. Yes it acts as a reminder of my earlier days in trading, so i like it. Keeps me from flying too high 🙂

  10. you will now see noitall saying profit has been booked for 19 points £475 easy money 🙂

    1. Good stuff anstel, if it gets through Nick’s 28 and doesn’t pull back to much less than 18, I suppose 38 is next resistance, but it doesn’t look too energetic atm.

        2. I’m thinking my next plan is to put a small short on if we get a decent spike up at NFP.Set my tolerences a bit wider for the volatility.My guess tomorrow will be a tight range and good for scalping.just got to nip out, briefly hopefully,good luck everyone.

          1. Yeah, I like the NFP spike idea, but if we clear 38/40 then there’s a bit of fresh air till 80 really.

  12. Drop to 6610 and bounce. I think europe is not going to bounce enough. I need an impulse move to go through 35 on ftse. Not liking the price movements on ftse so far

  14. RJ

    RJ says:
    July 2, 2015 at 10:53 am
    you will now see noitall saying profit has been booked for 19 points £475 easy money 🙂

    No, I have a stop at 6639, but I am not quite sure what you are insinuating ?
    Price now is roughly where I placed the trade, so why should I say I have booked
    for 19, a bit odd !!

    2. Stop to break even, no great insight, just don’t fancy it as much since 26 held twice. Too hot to think 🙁

      1. I’m too hot/lethargic to check, but I think 1500-1700 has been a sharp sell off 6 out of the last 6?
        Can’t keep happening….can it?

  19. Update
    closed all my positions around 20 mins back

    Dax 11134
    Dow 17813
    Spx 2085.33
    Ftse 6635.9

    Reason for closure:
    1. Absence of bullish momentum – spike confirmed on 5/10 min chart
    2. probably the most imp one, Phone’s battery was draining out 🙂

  20. If it breaks the 200 sma on the 1 minute it might work out quite nicely this,oops spoke to soon.

  22. If this sits on 35/38 lowest and then continues through 45 with a bit of style, we could see a bull run into the close here.
    Nothing there till 80 really.

      1. There’s a couple of ifs in there mate.
        See post above, final two hours have been a sell off last 6 out of 6.
        Long weekend coming up…..
        I’m not saying 80, just that there’s nothing much between 45 and there.
        GL

        PS I’ve switched my short round to a long at 35, stop 30.

  24. selling Dax with a feeler trade will add if she goes south need to see s&p under 2080
    going long late Friday for a yes vote on Monday but only with profit.

  26. Is there any reason why the FTSE is rallying and all the other indicies are falling. have I missed anything obvious today?

    1. Replying to myself is a little sad but is it simply because the US is closed tomorrow and the FTSE it’s waiting for a sell off tomorrow.

  30. Just closed my short for just over 17 points,had to take some heat on it earlier though.good luck all.

  33. Price divergences is the reason. The momentum in ftse was slower than Dow and spx. So if ftse has to close the gap, it must maintain the divergence and the next time Dow rallies from the same point (you will notice price hasn’t gone below the low it marked yday),.ftse can rally and close the gap.

    That’s my theory, others may say NFP

  34. Tgt 770 ish on dow
    spx around 2079

    then will order placed to buy at 700 Dow
    And 72 spx. Hopefully will meet 900 gap tomorrow

    Maybe will go for dax longs as well

  35. Closed at 740 and 2076.9
    Will buy if levels get to 700 and 72 with tight stops or will place order

  36. Buy orders
    dax 11080 Tgt 11200
    Spx 72 tgt 2085
    Dow 700 tgt 800
    Ftse 6620 tgt 6640

    tight stops. If this works, tomorrow maybe a day southward

  37. Orders weren’t filled, meaning markets undecided. Appears to have marked end of rally. May see upside for stop hunting but this must go down

  39. i would expect a massive sell-off today, whilst everyone awaits the referemdum on the weekend. who wants to open on Monday 500 point down. But then everyone says they’ll vote yes

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