Australia cuts rate FTSE resistance at 6305 and 6330 Support at 6184

Support 6271 6263 6232 6223 6184
Resistance 6300 6315 6325 6330
Good morning I hope you had a good long weekend. The US was pretty strong yesterday and we have just had a surprise rate cut in Australia. Gold moved above $1300 for the first time in a while yesterday, after a bullish end to April, and looks like its going to keep going! With the US rising, the out of hour FTSE has risen from Fridays levels and could be on for 6300 again. We also have the top of the 10 day Bianca at 6330 today. In UK news, Leicester City have won the Premier League at 5000-1 odds at the start of the season!

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Australia’s dollar tumbled against all of its major peers, while the nation’s stocks and bonds rallied after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates. Asian stocks held near a two-week low as markets including China, Hong Kong and Singapore reopened following a holiday.

Australia’s currency slid 1 percent versus the greenback as Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a record low, a decision forecast by 12 of 27 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped to its lowest level in almost a year as the yen advanced to an 18-month high. A gauge of regional equities that excludes Japan, where markets are shut until Friday, declined for a fifth day. Industrial metals dropped in London, while gold climbed to a 15-month high. Crude oil rose to around $45 a barrel in New York.

April manufacturing data released this week in the U.S., Europe and China will have done little to convince the Federal Reserve that the American and global economies can withstand higher borrowing costs. Output in the U.S. expanded in April by less than economists forecast, while pockets of weakness remain in China, the reports showed. While the greenback’s retreat is supporting raw-materials prices, a rebound in global equities is stumbling amid a mixed bag of quarterly earnings reports from the world’s biggest companies.

“We’re into the May doldrums where people are starting to reconsider portfolios and will probably not do too much,” said Sean Darby, chief global equity strategist in Hong Kong at Jefferies Group LLC. “They’ve either missed the rally from the first quarter or they’re getting a little bit too concerned about some of the weakness in the global data.”

It’s a big day for bank earnings, with BNP Paribas SA, Commerzbank AG and UBS Group AG all reporting on Tuesday. HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s largest bank, reported a bigger profit than analysts forecast as did DBS Group Holdings Ltd., Southeast Asia’s No. 1 lender. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

For today I have initial support at the 6263 area where we are looking at starting the day at 7am, this is support on the 2 hour chart. As such, if this holds then I am expecting a rise up towards the 6325/6330 resistance area. I also think that we will have a slightly bullish start as its the start of the new month and as such new money flows into funds etc. However, with the bank holiday yesterday the start can often be a little choppy on the first day back so bear that in mine. We have the 6263 support from the daily pivot area at 6270 and also the 100Hull Moving average on the 2 hour chart. As such, it’s a fairly simple plan for today with a rise then a dip from that 6325 area.

69 Comments

  1. Morning all,interesting area on the dax and ftse.Think I’ll come back when it is less interesting 🙂 have a good morning everyone.

  2. Morning again. Just delivered my morning sermon on the last page.
    Nick’s 84 and 9950 just holding, may well turn out to be the mornings lows simply because bargain hunters/selling here poor r/r, but don’t marry any longs.
    If ~9950 breaks hard could be 9920/6175 quickly and maybe an exhaustion move for a brave long, dump it if it doesn’t retrace asap.

    1. That looks like the exhaustion dip and retrace on the DAX, nearly made 20, but we didn’t play ball for my ftse long though.
      I guess cautious BTD from here, wouldn’t want to see the DAX back below 40 though.

      1. Smelt strongly of dead cat at 9960/6200, now, how low will it go, still looking for bargains, but what’s a bargain?

          1. Morning Senu, yes if I was that sort of trader I’d probably be longing in the 80’s with a 25pt stop and 6220 limit. But I’m not.
            I have 6175 stuck in my mind for some reason.

        2. Double bottom on DAX at 9920? Bounced well off there twice, Nick’s 84 also held, could be it for this morning’s downside but lots of work to do before it confirms, like 9970 break and hold, same with 200.

  4. Morning !! Interesting levels only if I could held on to the shorts from last weeks.. ANyways L@ 85!

  5. I have a question about pivot points. If you trade on the IG platform do you tend to use their pivots? I am reading up that people generally use New York close to plot theirs. Also, why does plotting weekly and monthly pivots supplied by IG rmess up the charts?

    1. Hi Anton, I don’t use them much personally, but IG default pivots are 24/7 data based as opposed to cash hours. If you have PRT then you can alter the parameters.
      Some people (me) don’t put as much stock in 24 hour data as open cash market.
      I don’t see how to get anything other than daily pivots on IG standard charts, irrespective of chart time frame, maybe a software thing.

  7. That DAX’ll have to get through 960 at this nth attempt or my 75’s looking good.
    Not looking likely atm , next 10 minutes important.

      1. stopped for nothing, but still looking long, minor encouragement from higher lows on DAX but 9955 a brick wall.

  10. Aaaaand, we’re back.
    So, got that grind up off the lows and a fail at ~6200, pretty predictable, question is what now?
    DOW looking pretty flat, destined for a look at 650? FTSE continues to show relative strength and the DAX, well there’s only so many times it can bounce (sort of) off 220.
    FTSE nomansland really in the 80’s.

    1. Bloody computers. Think there is something on the site that causes it to hang every now and again for no reason.

      1. Yeah, I’d have a look at the scripts those new autoplay ads are running.
        (Don’t really know what I’m talking about).

  11. Restraining myself from shorting for a closing sell off. Must control….
    Compromise, see where we are at 4 o/c 🙂

      1. Hung on for +12
        Not looking very good the DOW. Interesting to see what it does at 650.

        1. Beg to differ, can see Dow up over 17800 by close followed by a long day tomorrow across the indices

          1. :0 that is the first time I’ve ever seen you go long,seems against the natural order of things 🙂

        1. Maybe we should just short everything and leave it eventually it should come good…..Good plan yday going to the gym….I watched the market for nothing….that’s another day I won’t get back….oh well were under starters orders :0)

    2. That’s quite funny……first time I think oh B@llocks short everything….you get all bullish…..What’s goin on? Newsflash Newsflash tmfp had grown some horns :0)

      1. Ftse came down from that 200 at 7 on news then fell from the open to Yesterdays low which is right above the 200 sma daily so should show some supposrt here really.

        1. We’re back at the March…….will it break 200 level again….like just before Xmas…we got up to the 6400 plus area and fell back over the last 2 or 3 weeks….Mr P is the main man. But he seems to take a lot of time off on the sick….

        2. Morning WSF yes should do, but the DAX must hold those 9920ish cash lows for me or could see some stop loss

      2. lol there’s a bit of a difference between thinking the bulls will try to run it up and “going all bullish” anstel 🙂
        out for +5 50 now on the cards if the DAX dips at all

        1. Yeah you know what tmfp…..This is the biggest **** take known to man….lol you’ve just gotta laugh…he he he he….:0)

        2. well since we opened below the Close the close at 85 and the low 59 to 200sma 49 are probably the levels to watch.US ADP Employment at 13.15 probably a clue on NFP and might be an excuse for movement,EMU retail at 10,German bank pres is speeching at 11.15,but dont think he can be relied on to pump.o8.55 German PMI,09.00Emu PMI.Bit like Hill Street Blues
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jmg86CRBBtw

          1. Only thing I can say is, it very often goes up going into NFP…..so on that theory this sell off is providing the incentive ……price wise…..for a feeding frenzy as Friday nears…

  15. Just holding
    out of 65 short awaiting developments as they say
    Will this look cheap or dear in a couple of hours?

      1. That push up on 15 min Dax looks promising (even more promising on 15 min Dow) 🙂

  16. I’m looking at this again and thinking…….is the Dax driving the closed Dow…or the Shut Dow driving everything else…..my money is on the Dow…I can’t see it any other way I’m afraid.

    1. Look at the RSi on the Dow….it’s higher than the Dax on the 3 min…..surely tmfp the Dow is in control….unless Ive got it wrong …

      1. actually scratch that, I’m up 27 points so far since 8 and haven;t even looked at it
        Pudding proof eating?

        1. What I keep thinking about is that idea that we are watching a rotation away from tech and into traditional stuff.Even the Blue Chip charts I looked at over the weekend are suggesting that and as a money destination yields are amazing relative to everything else at these prices,with Utilities etc

          1. I always keep an eye on United utilities WSF as a barometer…..it’s a safe haven type of stock….everybody needs water,,,,they have a monopoly….and the increasing UK population due to immigration is putting heavy demands on the existing infrastructure…..it’s my view that if the market gets nervous that’s one place people increase exposure too.

          2. My view is that I am not an investor nor an amateur economist, I’m a guy that watches candles and presses buttons. Simple life everytime. 🙂
            Stop to 68 on the long, DAX breakout deadline extended by another 5 minutes.

          3. I think it explains some stuff about what could keep a Bull mkt going,also its the dream of capital growth you dont have to sweat over 🙂

        2. Yeah tmfp there’s no denying you are extremely good at scalping and making money which is the name of the game after all…I just havn’t found my niche …..not for lack of trying though….

  17. I’d normally take 15 on that long now but I’ll give the DAX 5 minutes to get through 950 convincingly
    Here we go?

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