Asia rises to one week high 6267 6285 resistance 6230 support

Support 6231 6228 6190 6120
Resistance 6259 6265 6267 6278 6285 6289 6299
Good morning. The FTSE 100 rose and dipped a little bit yesterday on what was mostly a consolidation day after the rises on Tuesday. Didn’t quite reach the sell order at 6280, instead dropping from 6278 down to 6245. Overnight we have dropped off a bit further and the 30min chart has some bearish EMAs showing now, with resistance at 6260. We are also back within the 20 day Bianca channel with resistance at 6267. With the S&P dropping back below 2090 this rally form 6040 ‘might’ running out of steam.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose to a one-week high and the currencies of oil-exporting nations strengthened as Brent crude traded above $50 a barrel for the first time since November. Gold rebounded from a seven-week low as the dollar lost ground versus most of its major peers.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was set for its biggest two-day advance in more than a month, while Brent crude rallied for a third day after data showed U.S. stockpiles declined more than forecast. The Norwegian krone led gains among major currencies, while Malaysia’s ringgit was the best performer in emerging markets. New Zealand’s dollar sank to a two-month low, the Japanese yen strengthened and gold snapped a six-day losing streak.

Market sentiment has improved over the past week on optimism that the global economy can withstand the tighter monetary policy being telegraphed by the Federal Reserve. Polls show growing support for the U.K. to remain in the European Union, easing concerns over the prospect of “Brexit,” and a rally in commodities is warding off the threat of deflation. Still, investor confidence is fragile and investors will be keeping a close eye on Friday’s Japanese consumer prices report and comments the same day by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The odds of a U.S. hike in June are 34 percent, Fed Funds futures show.

“Markets are now more accepting of a U.S. rate increase,” said Mitsushige Akino, an executive officer at Ichiyoshi Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “The thought is that a hike won’t stop the U.S. economy from growing, but if the global economy slows, they have the means to change their policy.”

Australia reported a bigger drop in private capital expenditure for the first quarter than economists forecast, while New Zealand Finance Minister Bill English projected growing operating surpluses in his annual budget announcement. The U.K. and Spain will release details on Thursday of how their economies performed in the last quarter, while the U.S. has durable goods orders data for April due as well as weekly jobless claims figures. In addition, leaders from the Group of Seven nations are meeting in Japan to discuss topics including economic policy, climate change and boosting infrastructure investment.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent as of 12:56 p.m. Tokyo time, after gaining 1.5 percent in the last session. Japan’s Topix index rose as much as 1.1 percent, before paring the bulk of its advance as the yen strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index slid to its lowest in almost three months, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated from a three-week high.

Energy shares led gains in the region, with Cnooc Ltd. and Inpex Corp. climbing more than 2 percent. Mitsubishi Motor Corp. surged as much as 9.5 percent in Tokyo after the company booked a charge related to its fuel economy testing scandal, providing some clarity on the scale of the losses.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index declined 0.2 percent, after the benchmark gained more than 2 percent in the last two sessions. More than $900 billion has been added to the value of global equities this week, trimming this month’s losses to about $1 trillion.

Currencies
The krone rose 0.7 percent versus the greenback and the ringgit advanced 0.5 percent as higher crude prices brightened prospects for oil exports from Norway and Malaysia. The yen strengthened 0.5 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback against 10 major peers, declined 0.2 percent following a similar-sized drop in the last session.

The kiwi slid as much as 0.6 percent to its weakest level since March after Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world’s largest dairy exporter and New Zealand’s biggest company, forecast a lower-than-expected payout to its farmer shareholders.

Commodities
Brent crude rose as much as 0.8 percent to $50.12 a barrel. U.S. inventories declined by 4.23 million barrels last week, exceeding an expected drop of 2 million, data showed Wednesday. In addition, attacks in Nigeria have cut production to a 20-year low and Venezuela is struggling to maintain output amid power cuts.

The final preparatory gathering of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries officials before a ministerial meeting next week didn’t include discussions on limiting output, signaling the group will stick with its strategy of defending market share.

Gold added 0.4 percent, after sliding 4.3 percent over the last six trading sessions as prospects for monetary tightening in the U.S. curbed the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets. Platinum and palladium gained more than 1 percent.

“It’s because of the weakening of the dollar that we see precious metals have come up a little,” said Brian Lan, managing director of Singapore-based GoldSilver Central Pte. “Previously we’ve seen gold come down sharply, so this is a slight correction.”
Investors are also waiting for more news on whether the Fed will raise interest rates in June, Lan said.

Copper advanced for a third day in London, while tin and lead were poised for their first gains in more than a week.

Bonds
U.S. Treasuries advanced following strong demand for the securities at auctions this week. The 10-year yield fell by two basis points to 1.85 percent, retreating from a three-week high. A gauge of demand at a $34 billion sale of five-year notes Wednesday rose to the highest since 2014 as primary dealers were awarded the lowest percentage at an offering of the securities in data going back to 2003. The offering came a day after a $26 billion two-year note sale also left primary dealers with the lowest award on record. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

For today I am thinking we are going to get a drop from the 6265 area down to the 6230 area. We have 6265 as the daily pivot and the 30min chart has gone bearish with 25ema resistance at 6260. We also have the top of the 20 day Bianca channel at 6267, along with the 20 day Raff at 6287. So there are a few signifcant resistance levels nearby. Admittedly with the recent surges we have broken though most resistance levels which is quite annoying for those of us that trade off S&R levels. Support wise, the 200ema on the daily chart is at 6229 currently, so as we are now above it then that is now support. We also have S2 at 6231 (S1 on live charts though), with round number support at 6200 below that. The green coral on the 2 hour chart will also be around 6200 later on today, though the Hull moving averages on the 2 hour have closed the gap slightly and could switch to short if it were to be bearish today. The longs might also be keen to start banking the profits ahead of the bank holiday weekend. So, cautiously bearish for today.

138 Comments

  1. Morning Nick and all.
    As you say, difficult to trade this if you’re a S/R type, being in new recent territory as we are.
    A lot of the medium term data could be seen as a bit stale given the last month of narrow range.
    Sellers are either burned or biding their time and buyers are sitting on profits and looking to add on dips I should think, so it’s either top picking or fomo longs without much technical support.
    I should think the “after the Lord Mayor’s Show” sideways to lightly up routine will prevail till the weekend with any dips being bought.

  2. Morning Guys well here’s my story so far…went long Ftse at daft o’clock this morning…about 5.30 am at 256.4…..had to go and do stuff…..on way home It was later than I thought about 8.40…..checked my iPad but couldn’t see it properly because of brightish sunlight….however I did see a nice bit blue number equal to +15.6pts so with chippy sat firmly on my shoulder I grabbed it before I got home to check the charts properly…it went another 7 but it doesn’t matter….that’s for the other guy….also went long last night on Dow at 60.6 and 54.5…..closed them at 63.9 and 65 respectively ……all from a park bench lol…..cup of tea now….good luck everybody…

    1. Hi tmfp, I am new to this site and like to learn from expert like yourself and others. Glta

      1. Hello matey, welcome aboard. Have a good read of Nick’s summary and try to understand what he’s saying.
        Are you planning to full time trade, short term or longer? Do you understand about the size of bet that is appropriate for your capital?
        This week is a strange week with the break out of the range and a long weekend, so take your time and ignore 90% of what I say, if not more.
        GL.
        🙂

        1. Hi tmfp, I am part time trader, scalping it’s my main style, most the time betting above/ below the pivot point on daily chart, I am doing okay for the last four weeks. Hope everyone have great day!

        2. Morning cfdf –
          I think you left a message on yesterday’s board asking about my Robot – it’s not an app – it’s part the PRT software provided by IG.

        1. tmfp up to now it seems to have support around the 54-56 area…that’s what it seems to me at the moment….it will probably change soon though…good luck matey….

          1. Yeah, just thinking the same, held reasonably well around there all day yesterday too.
            If it does break in the next couple of sessions, may well have a look at Nick’s 30 before BTDers come in.

          2. Yeah….wouldn’t surprise me if it breaks 54 next time…I’ll place one at 54 small just in case I reckon then stack them on the way down all manageable size as I don’t want to have to dump at a loss Friday night if at all possible….

        1. No don’t do fun stuff at the moment….well to be honest this is fun stuff to me…..I love it…giving it 150% ….I’m going to learn this if it kills me….got a little part time job to buy food and that’s me…At weekends I go walking or cycling to keep fit and mainly because on Friday nights I’m that wired it’s a good way to get all the trading stress out of my mind ……I’ve finally got my mind working how it needs too to increase my chance of success…..it’s all in the grey matter I reckon…..good luck Hugh…

  5. Morning all, long at 55 but agree with tmfp, it’ll probably be a fairly dull day with bank holiday coming up.

    1. Oh thanks for reminding me chippy ……Bank Holiday…better reign it in if its a long weekend cheers…good luck mate…..

    2. And out at 66. I think that could be me for the week! Have got to do about a million miles this weekend to collect children from uni so good luck all see you next week.

      2. Cheers chippy. I’m off tomorrow for a long weekend too, maybe turn into a week if the weather holds. Life’s too short…

  6. So I’ve got my Robot running today having sorted one or two issues out.
    Currently Long Av 6271 – Looking for 6281 thereabouts

    1. I just dropped a little short in at 68, Man against Machine, Deep Blue/some Russian.
      🙂

  7. Hugh, the RSI system you showed yesterday, was it based off 10 RSI because I looked back on yesterday’s data and the RSI never reached 80/20 on the 14? Also I noticed on the diagram there was more than one entry when overbought. Was the second short entered because it had briefly dipped below 80 and then went back up above 80?

    1. Hi Anton – RSI 6 – 1 Min 80/20 B/S as long as the signal stays above or below – (so it may accumulate several orders) closes when it’s got 10 points on each individual position (e.g L 6254.4 – Limit will be 6264.4) or RSI contra signal – hope I’ve explained this OK – let me know if not.

      1. Thanks Hugh, appreciate it. I think I got it. So the exit is 10 points from entry either way (profit or loss), correct? How long does it need to stay above 80 or under 20 to generate more than one entry?

        Thanks again

        1. ” How long does it need to stay above 80 or under 20 to generate more than one entry?”
          Every minute…

          “So the exit is 10 points from entry either way (profit or loss)”
          Either 10 Point profit or opposing RSI level reached.

          1. Could you cap that at an arbitrary number, say max 6 trades, without breaking say 40 or 60? Would avoid bloodbaths.

          2. Yes tmfp – there are number of options e.g number of trades or max loss.
            Bloodbath – Like Monday ? Perhaps – think it did something like (-£2K) – but to be honest, relative to other days when it brings in the bacon – it wasn’t that bad. But – yes – I know what you’re driving at…
            My only thing at the moment – is “are the results actually mirrored on the dealing site”? So far this morning – they’re not quite – but there haven’t been that many trades…

          3. Oh sure. Monday was a bit sobering but part of the % game.
            I was more irritated with my loss because the previous run up to 180 and straight back down again I got wrong too.
            I lost about £4.5k but just pottering about yesterday and today’s put a 30% hole in that.

  9. Does anyone know how I can load my saved charts on the Investing.com IOS app? I save them on the main site but there does not seem to be a way to load them in the app.

  10. You know what tmfp I think I will leave the 54 this time….I think it will drop lower you know to Nicks 30……it’s about time for a change of range….

    1. Maybe, if it does it’ll be cos DAX goes melty melty..
      Good thinking though, shows you’re not in “must trade” mentality.
      Pleasant when it goes right isn’t it, just pottering about, no white knuckle out-of-money stuff hanging over you?
      As you said to WSF the other day, +10’s soon add up. Hanging on for days looking for the +50’s is boring and restrictive.

      1. I’ve got a Dow Short position that’s a keeper….and a bit of Dax stuff iin my Box….still fancy a 1000 pt trade for posterity…:0)

      1. I’m waiting to see how it deals with 70, DAX is just turning off its little rally and if 20 breaks could run on a bit.

  12. Morning all,had a limit at 250 on the Dax and City payed at 251.3 at 8.45:31 🙂 never seen them do that before,Stop losses yes,but limits… might buy a Lottery ticket later and a few Scotch Eggs lol.

      2. Yes,as if they need to improve their edge,bet the volatility doesnt come close to jusifying it.

        1. They’ve also introduced “Trade through” which basically means you authorise them to do “their best” lol.
          For who?
          Answers on a postcard.

          1. Sounds like they are jealous of the easy money Stockbrokers get.I got 200 quid from TD waterhouse once after they stopped me below my order when the price spent 30 mins on my order.It was a good will gesture,they didnt do anything wrong,obviously.Took two phone calls and a letter and was less than they cost me.Had a chat with them about credit once and they said no because I had “low quality earnings” that was when I was on a run trading ETF’s and paying them 15 quid a transaction 🙂 got a Broker at the moment charging 10 quid and rebating for frequent trading and stuff.

          5. Yes custard, that’s what they’re saying.
            I should imagine they’re looking at FTSE long/Brexit leave straddles.

    2. Luxury Scotch Eggs…
      IG do that from time to time too, best I ever had was about 4 pts I think. Mind you, also had three “Price no longer valid” screens on a manual stop, cost me about 20 points.

      1. Yes the red ticket.I dont think the darker food colouring and the hand wrapping from a man in a hair net smelling of Old Holburn is worth the extra money to be honest,even if he does have a spotless white coat and the ability to discount Roast Chickens.I think he is the Supermarket equivalent of a Notary Public 🙂

        1. You’ve shattered my illusions there. I thought that Scotsmen laid them, that was the reason for kilts.

  13. tmfp
    did you receive a e-mail regarding the increase in margins?
    so is ftse going from 0.5% to 1%?

    1. It was in the daily notifications yesterday. I clicked “Don’t show again” and can’t find it, but I’m sure that’s what it said.

  14. Just had a long on Dax 10230, took 17 points (well, back to the original stake for time being). Didn’t keep because I wasn’t sure if 10250 would surpass promptly and couldn’t afford the retrace (if it makes sence).
    Now it’s for definite – stops forever.

    2. Well done Jack….takes guts to trade again after getting a big drawdown.keep your individual position size down to minimum on any one trade…..but try to increase your number of trades in your allocated trading time….if the opportunity presents itself…one trade at £1pp placed 10 times = one trade at £10pp placed once….but you have ten chances to get it right with the £1 trade…..the bigger one could be catastrophic if it goes againts you……Be afraid of failure and you will succeed…good luck mate….

    3. Nice Jack.
      If anyone is curious about why Yellen is talking tomorrow it’s here
      https://www.radcliffe.harvard.edu/event/radcliffe-day-2016
      you cant make this stuff up,
      “This year, on Friday, May 27, 2016, the Institute will honor Janet L. Yellen, chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, with the Radcliffe Medal, presented annually to an individual who has had a transformative impact on society.

      The Radcliffe Day lunch in Radcliffe Yard will feature personal reflections from Ben S. Bernanke ’75, a distinguished fellow in residence in the economic studies program at the Brookings Institution and the former chair of the Federal Reserve, after which Gregory Mankiw, the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University, will engage Yellen in conversation about her groundbreaking achievements.”

      1. I actually fell asleep twice reading that.
        They are just like masons. (No offence to any Brethren here).

  15. Well, after that riveting hour the ftse rate of increase is very marginally increasing and activity’s slightly picking up on the DAX so a short 78 with a 10 stop looking for mid morning high.

        1. Thanks tmfp, just getting use to this site, at the moment if Ftse crosses 6284 I am out.

  17. Hi All, just to let you know that i am moving my site to a new hosting provider. I am going to start on the move tomorrow afternoon so it may be offline for a bit, from Friday 1pm’ish.

      1. Right oh Nick…..thanks for providing this site for us all too exchange knowledge and ideas…..I have learnt so much from your book, your daily analysis…tmfp…WSF…Hugh….and chippy to name but a few and I am eternally grateful to everyone who has helped me…..you all know who you are….Have a great weekend Nick…

  19. took 9 on that short because bored and also DAX could do something silly soon like make new highs, which would be a good reshort for some pre DOW weakness.
    What the DOW’s going to do, haven’t a clue, probably around unch and a bit of wandering.

    1. Well there’s the rally to new DAX high, unlikely to be sustained for too long but you never know with those crazy germans, drag us up a bit more and I reckon FTSE shorting territory again.

    2. So far 1 win and 1 loss on demo with the 10 points either way. I will demo it properly tomorrow.

      I think this system will be good with as narrow spread as possible, maybe with Corespreads.

    1. Hey tmfp…This revolving monitor is the best thing I ever bought….It goes up even when I’m short……perfect for a short – a – phone like me …..:0)

      1. Sorry rushing…..Short – a – phobe……it’s predictive txt ..it just did it again….I was right it just changed it to phone.

  23. Re: shorting, yes it looks awful and I’m short too, but don’t get too carried away.
    As you’ve probably noticed from the many gaps between trades, volume is very light and things could turn quite quickly should the DOW come in strong (see oil strength).

  25. Ok I’m out of all my four shorts 2 at 50.5……1 at 50.8….. And 1 at 49.8 for +11pts….+19.5pts…….+15.3pts and + 20pts

      1. Out at 57 for +6pts……I’m tired now….going out for a walk and rest the eyes…..

  26. So, after a couple of grren days, will the DOW take a breather or keep plowing on?
    Logic says breather, strongish oil says maybe plow on a bit.
    Probably priced for about unchanged/+20 around 58 ftse.

  27. Half Off –
    L 6263.9 – Tgt 6273. 9 24PPP

    Hugh says:
    26th May 2016 at 1:39 pm

    Ruby Action !
    Av Long 6258 42PPP
    6250 Support level…

    1. All change –
      S 6268.7

      Think that last bunch of trades produced about £250
      Meaning £422 so far 🙂

      1. No printout proof, but she’s nearly 500 quid light 🙂 (mainly courtesy of the 72/46 short)
        Just turned round to short again at 64 but I’m running b/e stops asa +5 shows, that might be the diff.

          1. I only asked cos I thought I would win 🙂
            That 72/46 was a work of f**king art, highly chuffed.

  32. MHH too difficult to call, decline looks a bit unconvincing to break down much further than 46 and upside limited. I’m going to unplug myself 🙂

  33. Be interesting to see if they announce something from the G7 tomorrow before the weekend and the US holiday.

  34. Nicked a cheeky +5 off that closing rally to top off a very pleasant day.
    May not be back on here for a while, have a motorbike to ride.
    Good luck all, great weekend, good luck with the migration nick and thanks for everything.
    Chhers
    🙂

  35. Hi guys back again…..gone long on Ftse at 60 and 62.3 and long Dow at 21.5 and 25.6….

    1. Hi anstel
      any reasons for these entries?
      been observing your improvements in your trading over a couple of months, its really impressive. i was about to chuck my towel, but you have been an inspiration.

      1. Hi JSft……that’s very flattering of you to say,thanks it’s gives me a good feeling that I have inspired someone to not give up….well firstly I’m just having a lucky spell…..i don’t have the technical knowledge of Nick and tmfp….WSF is very knowledgable ..Hugh…there are a lot of very technically experienced people here…tmfp has been a really good influence on me….he has explained things in detail to me painlessly and sometimes I’m sure he thinks oh I give up with anstel! But I can’t change 30 yrs of my mindset quickly…..I have been self employed and this trading requires a different approach to what I’m used too…..I do listen to everything he tells me…..but sometimes I have to think about what he is telling carefully….it doesn’t sink in quickly…..I have had two big problems in trading that have almost crippled me…….No 1. I used to trade too deep………I mean tooooo deep…..I’m not going to tell you numbers but I’ve got myself in some dangerous positions,,,,I could have lost everything…..in the last year I have had four Big setbacks….the Paris bombings taught me how ruthless the SB companies are……They will take your house if you don’t have a high respect for risk…..I’m lucky to still be in the game with a roof over my head…..I started just over 2.5 yrs ago with 2k……..lost the lot :0) added another 1k to the pot….got my 2k back so I had 3k…..in 6 weeks I turned the 3k into 22k……..thought I was clever…..I wasn’t but things had happened in life that had made me change my whole attitude to risk….anyway…I jumped in deep with the 22k of profit….I put my own 3k back in the bank….the most I traded was £185pp like a complete idiot….but I thought I was good lol….was I to get a wake up call….I blew the bloody lot in about 5 days…and a chunk of my own money……got back again trading £1 pp and worked up size again and by September I had all my money back in my bank and another 20k of profit…yep you guessed it…………..I blew the bloody lot again! It’s taken all this time to realise two things……keep size manageable…..not too small though…..and……THANKS to chippy to take profits….TAKE THE BLUE….I have lost so so so so much thinking it will go more when I already had a big profit on already…..that’s being self employed and always having to push to survive against tough competition……I think I have finally learnt what not to do by making the same mistake over and over with my very hard earned capital…..tmfp will be annoyed with me with my next comment but I do feel very comfortable trading by my “feel” of the market….I have not put one trade on today using any indicators at all…….just keep an eye on the SMAs…I have 8 on each chart……3. 5. 10.20…..40-50-60…….100….and 200. When you see the 50 100 and 200 all in a parallel upswings on the longer time frames that’s when institutional money is coming in and it has momentum…..I like wide stops……and I like to get Risk off by weekend in case it gaps down…….it gapped down once on a Sunday night on me and I lost 12k so I learnt the hard way….just keep going……keep your risk within your comfort zone and instead of doing one trade at £10pp do 10 at £1……….adjust these figures to suit the amount of your life savings you want to risk in your trading account….keep trying….never never give up ever and remember there is always another trade………IF you have some capital…….don’t blow everything ….because then it’s game over…..I hope that inspires you and any others reading like Jack2…..good luck JSft…..catch you on the battlefield tomorrow or next week…..have a good night……anstel out…

        1. Forgot to add….I always have a Dax chart…a dow chart open at all times when trading Ftse…..Dax is a good indicator for overall market sentiment in my eyes…..goodnight.

  37. morning folks its flip a coin friday which way today, if we trade what we see and with trend then Bull have the upper hands, but in saying that the Bears had the upper hand until 3 days ago.

  38. Think the markets have already accepted that there going to be a rate rise so only thing Yellen could do is hint June or July.

  40. I thought the Dax would atleast push back to 10330 this morning,with 10332 as R2 and Bianca 20 just above that.German preliminary CPI for the month to month is probably out around 13.00,Dow managed about a 49 point range on Friday Dax has done more out of hours than since the open,but its above Fridays close and I dont think it will turn down unless some other Mkt influences it.

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