6260 support 6305 resistance flat ahead of bank holiday but looks weak

Support 6259 6234 6227 6215 6196
Resistance 6282 6295 6305 6326 6369
Good morning. Turned into quite the V shaped recovery day yesterday from that early sell off, all the way up to just tag the 6323 short order right on the bell which was lucky, as the selling then resumed all evening, with the Dow shedding 200 points at one point. I was all se to go long at 6220 yesterday as we hit the neared the 10 day Bianca channel at 6219, and it decided to bounce just above that… typical. Unfortunately the S&P and Dax shorts triggered a bit too early so got stopped out before it fell back which was slightly annoying. Here we are at a Friday before a bank holiday weekend so we wont see too many large positions being opened I don’t think, though it feels weak again especially so after yesterdays evenings antics.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
The dollar dropped against all of its G-10 peers after weaker-than-expected U.S. economic growth dimmed prospects for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase at a time when monetary easing is being put on hold elsewhere. Asian stocks fell and crude oil traded near $46 a barrel.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index sank to an 11-month low, while the yen was headed for its biggest weekly jump since 2008 after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly refrained from adding to record stimulus on Thursday. Japanese financial markets are shut for a holiday and an MSCI gauge of shares in the rest of the Asia-Pacific region slid for the third day in a row. The greenback’s decline is proving a plus for commodities, which are poised for their best monthly gain since 2010. Crude has jumped 20 percent since the end of March, while gold and silver are at 15-month highs.

The BOJ’s surprise decision capped a week of fence-sitting for central banks, with the Fed keeping interest rates steady for a third straight meeting and policy makers from New Zealand to Brazil also holding the line. The slowest pace of American economic expansion in two years reignited some concern over the global outlook, and pushed out bets on the potential timeline for tighter Fed policy.

“Central banks look like they have run out of bullets to a degree,” said Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners in Wellington, which manages about $7.2 billion. “We’re getting to that point where there are limits to the results they can get from anything more they do. This points to a fragile outlook with still a lot of risks out there.”

South Korea’s industrial output unexpectedly declined in March, while Taiwan’s economy shrank more than analysts forecast in the first quarter, data showed Friday. The euro area will release figures for gross domestic product, inflation and unemployment, while U.S. updates on consumer confidence and household spending are also due. Russia’s central bank has a policy meeting and six out of 41 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict the benchmark interest rate will be cut. The remainder forecast no change.

Currencies
Bloomberg’s dollar gauge, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, slipped 0.3 percent as of 12:48 p.m. in Hong Kong and was set for a 1.7 percent weekly loss. Fed Funds futures show odds of the central bank boosting borrowing costs in June fell to 12 percent following Thursday’s GDP update, having held at around 21 percent when the Fed concluded its policy meeting on Wednesday.

The yen strengthened against all 16 major peers for the second day in a row, climbing as much as 1 percent to 107.08 a dollar, the highest level since October 2014. It surged 4.2 percent this week as the BOJ defied economists’ expectations that stimulus would be stepped up.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told reporters after the review that he wants to wait and see how the introduction of negative rates in January affects the economy.

“The BOJ seems to have descended into a haze of confusion,” said Richard Jerram, the chief economist at Bank of Singapore. “They mismanaged expectations running up to the meeting — and that is clear from the market reaction.”

The yuan rose less than 0.1 percent versus the greenback after China’s central bank boosted its daily reference rate by 0.6 percent, the most since a dollar peg ended in July 2005. The steep increase in the fixing reflects the dollar’s slide rather than any policy intentions, according to Ken Cheung, a currency strategist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Hong Kong.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index fell 0.5 percent, headed for a 1.7 percent weekly decline. With the exception of Australia, benchmark shares gauges retreated across the region. Futures on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average tumbled 2.6 percent in Singapore, while contracts on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were down 0.2 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1.4 percent, led by slides in energy stocks. PetroChina Co. slumped 3.4 percent after posting its first loss since it listed in 2000, while Cnooc Ltd. dropped 3.1 percent following a decrease in first-quarter revenue. Exxon Mobil Corp., the largest U.S. energy company, and Chevron Corp. are due to release their results on Friday.

“We advise clients to reduce their investments in equities and other risky assets in both developed and emerging markets,” said Komsorn Prakobphol, a senior investment strategist in Bangkok at Tisco Financial Group Pcl. “We expect the equities to begin some correction in the second quarter after a strong rally so far this year. Oil prices are at a level that will probably see some correction.”

Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a measure of returns on 22 raw materials, rose 0.1 percent, extending this month’s gain to 7.7 percent. Oil is set for its best month in a year in New York, buoyed by data this week that showed U.S. output is at the lowest level since October 2014.

Gold and silver both rallied for the fifth day in a row and were headed for their highest closes since January 2015. Copper advanced 0.7 percent in London on Friday, while zinc and lead gained at least 1 percent.

Soybean futures in Chicago are set for an 12 percent increase this month, the most since October 2014, after heavy rains and flooding destroyed crops in South America. Iron-ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have surged 20 percent this month, the most since the contract started in 2013, and that’s prompted the authorities to clamp down on excessive speculation.

Bonds
The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index declined 0.3 percent in April, set for the first monthly loss of 2016. The 10-year yield closed Thursday at 1.82 percent, five basis points higher than at the start of the month. Similar-maturity bonds in Japan yielded minus 0.085 percent at the end of their final trading session in April. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

After that dip last night I think we might see an initial climb as some buy the dippers appear and also as overnight the 6260 area has held a few tests, and we have the 20 day Bianca here at 6259. I think a rise towards the 200ema on the 30min at 6295 is possible and then some bearishness will kick in there. There is a declining channel on the 10min with resistance here also. We also have the top of a falling channel on the 30min at 6305. If the bulls were to break through this then we will likely rise to the top of the 10 day Bianca at 6369, however I think it will be more bearish ahead of a long weekend. If the bears go for it then they will need to break the 6259 channel bottom, which opens up 6215 for the 10 day Bianca channel. So, fairly simple plan today really – inverted V…..

292 Comments

  1. Morning! Talking of picking right spot i manage to get all three right S@ 300, L@226, S@ 320 but being overcautious only took 40+ altogether , i guess sometime it is about putting a trade and keep the blue ink running ! New day New start .. good luck all !

    1. We all have good entries (like I had short dax 10315 yesterday afternoon) but the major problem as I can see after a long period of time is holding it. I know it’s something to do with the risk attitude when you are willing to continue risking the proft or SL. But not everyone is able to commit to this.

      1. thanks for your words Jack 2 ! Normally i tend to hold as I go after long term trades.. As Tmpf would agree what aint in a bank aint ours! talking of which L@ 80

    2. Lol, yes hindsight is a wonderful thing, isn’t it?
      To look back and think “if” is a good exercise in making you feel bad about what you actually did do, which was make some money.
      The mantra is always maximise profits, minimize losses and the elusive trick is to do just that.
      A compromise is partial profit taking and a trailing stop on the balance, but further to what we said yesterday, a profit is not a profit till its taken, nothing more demoralising than watching blue ink vanish into red and hope turn to desperation.

      1. I am glad got the “The” Mantra for free here lol.. Like the joker said If you are good at something dun do it for free.. 🙂 .. but what you saying totally makes sense..

        1. Take confidence from the fact that you’re getting the entry points good.
          As anstel said a while back in reference to the car trade “Something well bought is half sold already”.

  3. Morning all, 15 mins of fun on the Ftse this morning with Nick’s Bianca 20,S1 and 6250 at the bottom of the range.Some Chinese numbers Sunday morning and Draghi Mon afternoon fwiw,Dax is open Monday for anyone who doesnt want to be in a british crowd getting rained on to start next week 🙂

  4. It wasn’t as I expected today. When I was happily positioned in long 10224 first thing after open it suddently drops to 10166 after I closed 1/3 of the position at 10242. Couldn’t believe that I was upset like a beginner (I remember that feeling) and was asking myself why I didn’t put my stops (literally I forgot to do that as I took those 2 extra positions higher and didn’t have time to figure it out). Obviousely I was saved when it popped up to my av 10210 and I closed it there but it luckily slipped to 10216. So in the end I have recovered all yesterday’s losses but was gutted that I misjudged the direction.
    At 10.07 I was thinking to go long again but have doubts looking at 10min: it looks bearish. Are you in any trades today?

    1. Morning Jack,not sure if you were talking to me,but I was long Ftse on that strong support until 86 as a bit of R and am watching 94 as 38.2% area.I’m looking at Ftse 4hr as a potential Pennant.
      Dax just came up on 15 min from a potential Pennant,above 10250 I’ll be thinking about the chances of it closing + 300 today fwiw.

      1. Morning WSF I’m feeling slightly bullish (for a change) this penant on the 4 hr chart ….I’m not good with this penant formation but if it breaks 300 looks to me like 320 is possible coinciding with the 50 sma which I think could stop it going much higher….what are your thoughts buddy.cheers .

          1. 320 is cautious as an initial target,if it stopped there it wouldnt be a continuation of trend,I’d like to see it higher or if it breaks downwards further than yesterdays low.I’ve been paying a lot of attention to failed shapes as opposite indicators lately,well worth looking at,think it is something people used to do that has been a bit forgotten.probably 320 is a good spot to take a bit off and run the rest at a b/e stop like Rick does,or wait a bit and pyramid up above it and 36 maybe.If today is flat then we could still be in a narrowing range next week or break out of it out of hours Mon,but I’d expect it to pick a direction and run it for a while.

      2. WSF, Not sure about 10300 on Dax today at all, 10250 looks like a strong support at the moment and it turned back down again right now with 10240 as the top. It may change after 13.00 onwards if 10166 holds, who knows, I don’t trust the price.

        1. Unfortunately, I couldn’t see the Pennant on 4 hour on Dax but I see a developing Pennant on 30min.

          1. Yes Dax does look Bearish,there seem to be a few failed bull indicators on it,Deutsche Bank did better than expected recently though and I have their day chart as an indicator,so might be attaching too much importance to that and yesterdays low coming off the 200sma (Dax 10107 area)Dax is below sub 10 ema’s,but however you play with Fibonacci it hasnt retraced much of last week or April and even if it closes below the 10200 range there is that 200sma area and 10k etc etc it’s very close to the 20 sma crossing up through the 20sma too fwiw.

  5. Morning guys.
    Can’t see much going on today, but after last night’s antics, who knows?
    Struggling to get through 83 at the mo, but once again FTSE showing some underlying strength.
    Shorted it here three times for pennies so far and still short, if it finally struggles through then stop at 86. Back in the 60’s we might get on a bit of a roll but not expecting much outside 6250/300.

  6. Morning chaps. Feeling a bit out of touch at the moment….looks like Dow 200 -250 off recent highs….Dax 228 theres 180 potential upside there ….a long weekend who would want to go long before a long weekend? Makes you wonder….could it be a good time for our old friend Mr P to join the party….?

    2. Hiya anstel. Liberal use of the could/if word always reminds me of the saying “IF my auntie had balls, she’d be my uncle.”
      GL. 🙂

      1. Morning tmfp…..I’m back from the real world….it made a welcome change :0) good luck to you also tmfp.

        1. Regarding the use of the word “could”…….that’s the thing with Mr P……he always gatecrashers the party when you least expect it…….If he had been invited formally it would be easy :0)….

  7. Looking longer term for something to do till I go out, the three markets are way different on the weekly charts.
    Obviously leading the bull run is the DOW, looking at third time lucky break through to new highs (or a triple top and massive fail).
    The FTSE broke out of the infamous down channel at the end of Feb and is working laboriously higher.
    The DAX is the runt of the litter. Still trapped in the down channel of lower highs/lows for a year, desperately needing to break and hold above 10600 to follow the others.
    What does it all mean though?
    The DOW is the key, unsurprisingly, the next 6/700 points either new highs or test support. The others will follow.
    On that portentous note, see ya later.

  8. A good bounce there off previous 82 resistance, took a little long on my way out the door, b/e stop now, wouldn’t be surprised at a visit to the 300’s, limit 305.

    1. BTW tmfp,something came to my mind earlier in the week…..we are running the same car……These PSA motors need regular oil and filter change every 5k and keep an eye on injector number 3…..they sometimes become loose and let cylinder gases into the oil which create carbon and by the time it blocks the banjo on the turbo feed and the turbo blows the engine is full of carbon deposits….regular oil and filter changes help this engine with the correct Ineo Quartz 5w 30……

  9. RBS down 2.37%…..Berkley down 3.03% International Consolidated Airlines biggest faller on Ftse this morning down 4.36% Schroders down 2.3%……… Miners all slightly up…..

  10. Just bought short back at 70 for +11 which more than paid for last night’s flight of fancy on the Dow binary…sometimes I should have a long hard look at myself!

  12. Now this really is gambling….just bought Ftse/Dax difference at 3982. I really should get on with my long weekend but it is really cold outside..!!

    1. Bloody hell….it’s hard enough trying to work out the short term trend of the Ftse chippy…all these extra ways the SB company’s dream up of releaving us of money…Good luck buddy,hope you get some blue….

      1. Closed ftse long for +15, watching the difference trade for now, currently 20 off the money!

        1. Nice plus 15 there chippy…….like tmfp says when you really don’t want to buy and it’s looking grim…that’s usually the best time to get in…….I looked at the bianca channel and I’m wondering if we can reach 6310 – 6320 area……depends on the Dow as always…..GL.

          3. Equally I’m starting to drop a bollock on the difference trade. In the grand scale of things I’m not sure whether it will reach 6300+ but it could easily. I’m generally nervous at the moment of being long so just fiddling about really. Are you getting on OK? How are you long termers looking? Good luck

          4. Under a bit of pressure on Dax Swing at moment……that 1000 pt dream got to over 600 then dropped back…….I just don’t look in the box….The Dax is my sentiment barometer…….if it’s not happy then I’m watching like a hawk…Interesting how the different Days make you feel…..if you are up in blue ink you feel quite positive but when it’s reversing on you you feel that low feeling in your stomach……I think the trick is as Anton Kriel says is to “respect money but to be indifferent to it.”….if we can control our emotions is a big advantage…GL.

          6. Anstel, 2 things, emotions….don’t think money, think points and 2. You’ll get bored of me saying it but here goes, you never made a loss by taking a profit.
            To be fair, I do think that at some stage before the end of the year ftse will be 6500 which should mean dax will also be a lot higher so it is not that I think you are wrong, just that you could have sold and got a second bite at the cherry (ie, now).
            The above is from a bloke who is currently looking down the barrel of a stupid trade that should never have been taken on so pinch of salt time?!! Good luck matey

          7. You are quite right chippy in hindsight but It looked like very strong rises were on the cards at around 400….you never know when all the buying pressure will vanish ……it’s a chance you take…..hindsight is 20/20……just gotta try our best.

  13. Draghi’s speech on Monday is “The future of financial markets: A changing view of Asia” at the Asian Development Bank annual meeting in Frankfurt.
    D’ talking on financial mkts,Asia ,the future and the meeting being in Frankfurt all seem a bit wrong to me.

      1. Dont know if it means much with some of the earnings etc but U.S volumes have been picking up the last few days.

  16. Dows not looking very inspiring ATM…..a nice authentic rally perhaps? A little bit of encouragement would work wonders from here :0) time for a cup of tea and sit on hands for a bit.

    1. I tell you what Senu.we have to laugh at this really……all this trading comes down to one thing……our old mate Mr P…….I think if you read his school report it would A- (good with occasional lapses). He’s having a week off up to now but he will surprise us when we least expect it….maybe he’s having a long weekend who knows :0)

        1. If by any chance the Dow should recover …,,the Ftse is still at 6258….. It could possibly be a way to get the Ftse up on Dow sentiment……that’s what I’m thinking……time will tell…

          2. Yeah I reckon it’s a way to push our beloved Ftse up…..Mr P will be around soon I reckon. Probably having a Budweiser and a Cuban before going on duty….it’s a tough job but someone’s gotta do it.

  20. Tried a new mindset for my trade, mastering emotions here: short from 10088 to 10056 easily just now. The mindset was that I was going to the market that I will lose it and I set up my stop loss which was 10099 and started saying go up now if you want, I had no expectations and it went down. It wasn’t much a surprise and I just automatically closed like it meant nothing. Really weird to feel like that.
    Obviousely set up was for short but normally I’m scared to go short when I see it and miss it.

    1. You see I have a fear of getting in too late, it’s like if it’s been going down for such a long time so there’s no point of shorting because it will go up just to annoy me or something. But actually most of the time it’s not true and it will drag further.

  21. Looks a bit sick around the place but just bought more difference at 3880. Looking to get 20 odd points out of this to get the expensive ones down a bit more!

      1. Simply put if FTSE is 6250 and DAX is 10,100 then difference is 3850. If both moved down 2% then FTSE is 6125 and DAX is 9898, difference is 3773 a difference of the difference(!) of 77. As we all know, it doesn’t work like that so it swings about wildly!

        1. Bloody hell that’s got big volatility stamped all over it……can’t handle wild volatility……maybe when I get a new washing machine…..but not while I’m doing a hand wash…..life’s too short :0)

      2. If he buys the difference, he longs DAX and shorts FTSE, expecting the diff between the two to widen, but only 1:1.

        Short at 90

        1. took a fearless +5, could have a look at 300 before the close I guess, lizards and all that.

  22. turn around of long to short from 80 played well! dun wanna spoil the fun here .. but i still blv it will close >6300… anyways have a good weekend guys ! see you next month.. small long @ 50 target 300 stop b/e..

    1. It’s a ridiculously high probability to close + 6301 if you believe in cyclical probability or manipulation 🙂 Lizards or Bank holiday weekends / April all say probably higher than yesterday.

  23. Back again, been having a good time?
    Good little bounce off 17700 there. Mind you good bounce off 17800 yesterday. Good bounce off 17900 last week. Good bounce off 18000 the week before…..
    As for the soon to be four figure DAX….
    The only sign of life is our good old FTSE, bounced off 42 like a champ, 34 points to the DOW’s 38.

    Short at 85 🙂

    1. who, why and how?
      Another way to put it: “The Dows f**ked”.
      No Friday lager talk either… 🙂

        1. Maybe, but better than longs relying on free money, stock buy backs and margin waivers…
          So there.

          3. Don’t go and get all technical on me! As everyone has been saying it has been over puffed for a while and has haf a chance of being puffed further. It needs this correction for whatever reason!

        2. Mkts dont collapse when everyone is afraid and money is cheap,even a part time job in the U.S covers the interest on 10k on one of their credit cards with new phone money left over .

          2. and don’t forget welfare stamps, now that’s a bull market.
            Covered my short toooo early again, getting carried away by the (slightly desperate) general optimism.
            The little guy with horns on my shoulder, says “Don’t long this before the close”.
            Maybe short the little bounce that’s coming to 75/80 for a MHH punt on DOW through 17700? Steady now…

      1. Essentially got it at average 3921 and it is trading at 3875. You could say I’m looking for a bit of a change in Dax sentiment before the weekend!

          1. Looks like 10250 Dax and 6310 Ftse would get you out of the problem……it’s not beyond the realms of possibility if the Dow gets a leg up…..

          4. I’m trying to be optimistic in the face of adversity tmfp…..I don’t think Dax can get to 250…….100 maybe…..Ftse 6300 yes I reckon that’s possible…

        2. Don’t be sorry matey, like I said when I did it, it is a gamble not of any significant size. Far better than chucking money away on the horses or backing Scotland! If nothing else I’ll chuck it your little box to be opened up one day later!

          1. I’m looking all over for the bloody key to the box……it’s around here somewhere…..didn’t think I’d bloody need it…….I’ll get you a spare key cut….when I find it…. Oh B@llocks…..gotta keep smiling.anyway think I’m in love with Angela :0)

    1. Good weekend buddy….left you a little message about your car ^^^ under your post up there somewhere…..

    2. too early again…. I’ll get my head round this trading malarkey one day.

      Run Forrest Run….

  27. Doin a night shift WSF ?…..before settling in to some more Cod Roe later and a few tiniest?

      1. Yep,if I sit here long enough I can get the day high back,worse case scenario I’ll watch Poirot and take the Weasel in tomorrow for half a pound of tuppenny rice. 🙂

  28. So we are below 61.8 on Dow retrace last month had 17708 as a close,61.8 is at about 770 odd and 50% around 850 interesting place to be anyway lol.

      1. Joking apart this is lousy weather for a May day bank holiday…it’s really quite unusually cold for this time of year….

        2. I dont like thinking about holidays,got them as a deffered pleasure,like most things really 🙁

    2. Not wishing to butt in on the DAX Fan Club meeting, I don’t have a position in it and I know you don’t want to listen to bear stuff, BUT
      It’s a fact, as I said earlier, that it is the under performer of the three, still stuck in a year long down channel. Unless there is some sort of structural change, that’s the status quo relationship so far despite free euros etc.
      Re Fib, it always depends where you measure from.
      If you take this move on the daily as starting around 9450 early this month, then 50% retrace is somewhere in the mid high 900’s depending cash or index data.
      This is a little burrow into the broad 10000 resistance turned support from March. 61.8 is another 100 down from there.
      If you go from the 8800 lows, then 38.2 kicks in somewhere around the same levels, 9850ish. No trendline support till ~9700.
      If it gets that far without breaking trendlines, a pennant resolves in mid June around 10300.
      Weekly, it’s still trending up in a down channel and, as its the worst performer of the three, it would be logical to only expect it get to 10800+ and break out if the DOW went totally stellar.
      Monthly, middle of nowhere atm. Lower highs and lows would suggest 10800 max and no real support till 9000.
      What the fundamentals would have to be for 10800 or 9000 to break, I have no idea.
      🙂

      1. Oh sure I was just going off the most recent rally there and the weekly trend is clear,but if the Dow breaks to new highs then the dax will play catchup on the lag,Germans who put their money in in Jan have nothing to show for that decision to avoid the nothing from the bank,but every other nationality has.I think it will break up because a trend is a trend and money flow not the fact that the world is the same as 2008 is all that matters,they wont take the pain they pushed on Asia and Eastern europe during their econ collapses,they have made that clear and they are nowhere near losing control when everyone is bearish and it is still going up or sideways.fwiw.

      2. The fundamentals are there that should make it break the 9000, but it won’t. Just like in February the ftse, by rights, should have hit 5200 ish or lower.
        It is good, I think that the tree is being shaken, it makes for something more to get your teeth into. Forgetting my difference trade I’d really like to see 5800 on the ftse and whatever that might equate to on the others at some stage soon. Then I can start talking about the Santa rally before June! Have a good weekend all, see you sometime late next week.

  29. Dow looks to be showing 58 on Rsi 3 min chart at 702….. This could go back up….I’ll put my serious head back on see what we can do.

    2. Yes starting to look promising 15 min chart too,just needs a bit more to get some shorts closing or something lol.

      1. I sometimes think that the Dow is weak till after the Ftse closes and then goes up when LSE cash market is closed…..

          1. Yes no tmfp we can talk about shut stuff 🙂 I notice ASX for out of hours sentiment,highest today was around 5258 lowest 5229,it’s 39 at the moment,so the algos there are with us too 🙂

          2. No you can’t, I’m still here 🙂
            Trying to wring some life out of the computer that doesn’t like Nick’s new ads.
            17700 holding is key to the rest of today’s DOW imo, but whatever way you slice it, it’s not a good way to end the month.
            It may bounce, but the market remembers new lows, each time makes buyers a little less keen to jump in.

        2. 26.6 got my day high back,mighty relieved,can relax a bit now lower stake and tighter stop try and run it by an ema of the 5 min or something esp above about 26.

  32. I know tmfp says the shut Dow doesn’t have an impact on Ftse in the morning but if you ask me it’s the Dow that’s in control…..it doesn’t have to be open for the Algos to alter sentiment….just looked on investing and 5 min Dow technical indicators are showing a buy….. We will probably get a little wink from tmfp saying I’m still watching guys :0)

      1. Yeah I think he is you know :0)……I think we’re rubbing off on him….but being a proud bear he won’t admit it :0) BTFD for a bit longer…..but don’t tell anyone lol….

    2. Hey WSF look up there ^^^^. told you……tmfp doesn’t miss a trick….no more talking about closed markets for a couple of hours……we will get a right b@llocking…..shhhh we might have got away with it :0)

        1. Switch codes from DAX Lost Souls to Graspers of Straws.

          I may have a bit of a short on the DOW for fun in a while, it could get its arse kicked into the close.

          1. Lol knew you would be around somewhere :0)…. Read that post about oil changes on the PSA hdi I did for you earlier if you get chance……WSF we have been caught in the act …….B@llocks it’s like being at school :0)

          2. Thanks for the car tips, I work on my bikes but have no interest or the ability regarding modern cars. There’s a good Peugeot guy locally, he just plugs it in and fixes it.

          3. Main thing tmfp is regular oil and filter change on the psa hdi….it’s only got 3.75 litres of oil in sump so it gets knackered quick….anyway back to the Dow :0)

      1. Yeah but hold on a minute…….remember the whipsaw song…..what do you do with a hot news flash…..stash that flash right in the trash…..Ed knows a thing or two I reckon……

        1. You know what WSF it’s interesting,I’ve just read tmfps post re the Dax up above….tmfp has a knowledge of charts and patterns and indicators that just blows me away……..interesting thing though I think is tmfp is a dyed in the wool bear……he’s geared towards the short side…..I’m more the other way….a bit more optimistic……it’s going to have a bearing on overall market view I think……..This Markets going to collapse for sure…tmfp is right but the 6 million dollar question is when…..I don’t think its quite time yet…..It’s just trying to be short when it goes…..tmfp will be there I’m sure…..just hope we are too.

          1. I’m more cynical about what the state can do,I’ve seen guys with military escorts help themselves to natural resources working for unidentified co’s who have the right connections and so I think vested interest has the ability to mainain its safety and grow its wealth.Sure there are cycles and sure there is volatility and a random element,but the rich get richer everywhere.

          2. Yeah, I’m a hard wired bear, no doubt, a destructive side to me, hatred of bullsh*t and control.

            Little short at 7750, 60 pt stop, may add as it deludes itself higher. Back in 20 mins, errand time.

          5. Back just in time to take +50 on the expected hold of 17700, this bounce is crucial, may sell on a break of 90 but a bit early yet for real fireworks.

          7. No the decision to enter there was more on 1 minute divergence, WSF. Get some skin in the game. 720/5 for a replace I think with 760 stop, but see how it goes.
            Last half hour will be main interest for me, can just smell a big hit.

          8. Thanks yes,can see it now you point it out,higher highs with rsi falling from overbought.Thanks for that.

          10. Hey tmfp/WSF wait for me…..so that short entry was at 18.16 on the 1 min Dow just 1 min after the RSI was overbought and that red candle stayed at 47…..is that the divergence you placed the short on tmfp?

          12. The diverging set up runs on the DOW 1 min 10 rsi from 18.14 to 18.27. Higher price highs, lower rsi highs = divergence, confirmed as more than a blip by 18.28 break of 60 rsi and failure of 18.29 and 18.30 candles.

          13. No I stuck my neck out and shorted 18.26. If you’re not using IG charts, may not correlate.
            The whole possibility was triggered by the elongated 18.14 candle hitting 84 rsi. That’s a challenge, it says come on in and take over buying. I’m done. No-one stuck their hand up.

          14. Ok at 18.27 the RSI is dropping but we’re still at 750…..bloody hell I will never get that good….tmfp you are sh!t hot….thanks Guys…..

      2. Evening Tmfp,Chippy,what do you two think of that Reuters piece,read something about banning smoking in Macau Casinos having had an effect on commodity speculation 🙂

        1. Haven’t had the chance to read it, but I know from casinos and Bitcoin that the Chinese love a gamble and don’t care about leverage.
          They love speculating in copper for some reason.

      1. The Battle for 700 lol.
        The timings not quite right, so I’ll probably stop them at 30 if it gets there and look to re enter.

  35. That divergence thread is getting a bit long.
    Just to say that it obviously doesn’t work every time but gives good r/r cos you can stop it cheaply at new highs (beware a long tailed blip) and by definition there will be good potential downside because it couldn’t be overbought in the first place if it hadn’t already gone up a fair bit.

        1. Is it just me that thinks it’s cheap…if it was Tuesday I’d be like a kid at a sweatshop…..

          1. As for the DOW, I have this bee in my bonnet about a 640ish close for some reason, probably rabid.

          3. Yes anstel, we gathered that. 🙂
            Maybe it’s more like, you went long because you thought it was going up, and now you’re long you’re hoping it’s going up?
            This is called “Talking your Book”.

    1. Friday night is music night lol
      Some more at 810 for the average.
      You see anstel, thinking that something may happen doesn’t mean to say it necessarily will, there has to be something else.

      1. and out at 78 making the whole evening a futile ~ break even exercise.
        It’s good for me actually, to get these imagined meltdowns out of my system without losing too much money.
        The one at the FTSE close worked though.
        Have a great long weekend guys.
        🙂

        2. Have a great weekend tmfp….all the best buddy and thanks for your help with that divergence trade…

  37. 5 min Dow from 15.00 has formed a Loch Ness Monster shape,if it runs a bit higher might be an inverted head and shoulders.

    1. Lol you could start a ‘School of Imaginary Monster Technical Analysis Shapes’ WSF.
      Tbh, I chuck the rule book away at openings and closes.
      Cheers for the interesting input as usual.

  38. Well it did go up after all tmfp……but it’s not pushed up the Dax….I thought it would……oh well have a great weekend everybody ,,,,all the best chaps.see you next week.

  39. Hi all,
    Just read through this whole thread, having been off chat for some reason yesterday. It’s a surprisingly fun read
    In a very steady way I managed to throw away a load of cash trying to short Dow from 5pm to 6pm. Just before I had to head out I spotted the break down I’d been sure was there – the same spot as tmfp’s rsi divergence. I was watching the rsi but having been burned all the way up I held off shorting until a more conservative entry at 17731. Having been largeing it all afternoon, I put on my big boy pants and kept at the same stake (20pp). I felt in my bones that it was going to pick up a head of steam like the day before and so I set a TP at 17677 and stopped watching! I managed to not watch all the way down to 17700, but then the voices started telling me to take the profit!!! I held firm and moved my stop to 17717 which was just above some structure I’d seen previously at 17714. I’ll skip the torture of me watching those profits nearly evaporate, but I eventually took off 3/4 of the stake at 82 and trailed the rest down (or up as it transpired). average close 17685.
    Lessons learned:
    1. if I’m going to play at (for me) larger stakes, then I need to ignore the amount of cash involved and (like someone mentioned above) just think in terms of points.
    2. I need to be comfortable losing it all (un-booked profit), otherwise I’ll miss out on the big wins some of my entries deserve. I did move stop to b/e as it reached 17700 just in case it bounced all the way.
    3. Having stared at every tick of Dow and ftse for several years, at times there is something to the behaviour / movement of the market which can be ‘felt’. I have no idea how to systematise that aspect or which indicators might correlate.

    Enjoy your long weekend everyone, see you mon/tue.

  41. http://youtu.be/Sg28zaAe2T0…………If anybody’s doing any trading preparation work this weekend ……be it fundamental ……or studying charts and you pass by the site here’s something I’m working on……goin to post a couple of other links to YT videos if anyone’s interested……Jack…..I know I have areas that need improving in this area and I think it could help you too……

      1. My most watched up to now…….it’s costing me this one………http://youtu.be/lNajjh2oCgo. I’m thinking that in relation to the first video I posted….I’m getting control of the emotional state but then im losing clarity with the reasoning side of our brains…. And not taking resonable profits…..it seems to me if we can get them to work in conjunction it might be a big step forward…..don’t know….still trying to get it all together…

  42. Morning all, interesting gap up on the Dax.Above 100 the pivot is 110,with Bianca 20 sitting at 10120 and R1 at 10181,above 20 it seems pretty clear,but this 10100/105 could become an issue if it takes much longer to clear.PMI mfg at 08.55 for Germany,Europe at 09.00.German Bank Pres at 10.30,Draghi at 15.00.
    Dudley yesterday applauded the looking into the effects of what they have done in this environment they have made better with free dosh,something like that anyway 🙂 He used to work for Goldman Sachs as their Chief Economist lol
    https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2016/dud160501

    1. 10116 was where it turned back from Friday afternoon,expect it will try it again this morning,maybe off this retrace/gap close which just got eager.

    1. 20 stop loss on Dax seems a bit too tight to me……it needs plenty of breathing room…..Dax doesn’t take prisoners ……

      1. Yes it just touched 113,so bad S/L,classical mistake really I was playing my P/L, off of Friday night I think,didnt put any effort into the most important bit,the S/L ,anyway,served me right lol.

    2. Morning,did you watch that Zanger interview? Think this needs + 100/120 or sub 50/38 for potential to be honest,my Deutsche Bank indicator has turned down.

  44. Looks like 10160’s are possible to me R1 is 10180,scalp off pullbacks,1min and 15 are a bit overbought.

  45. Hi again WSF.i started watching the Zanger vid on Friday but when he mentioned the Internet bubble I stopped watching…..I’ve just watched it now fully. The chart patterns are an area that I’m weak in…..there is so so much to learn it’s incredible….I don’t pick things up instantly either…it takes me time….but once I get stuff it pretty much stays between my ears…some people can pick stuff up quick…..but then they forget it just as quick.That whole area of technical analysis is something I need to improve….I’m learning very slowly from yourself and tmfp and I really appreciate the help from you both.

    I’m focusing my attention at the moment on the psychological side of trading….it’s my belief this is going to help me ….I can control my emotions to quite a high level but on reflection this last couple of days I think I can see a flaw I have missed.

    Take a week last Weds.the Ftse was up at 6430 area….Nick was suggesting 6500 was possible…..I had reason to think he was right on the money.
    I was positioned with a substantial long position on Ftse with entries spread from the 6288 area up to 6360 area from memory anyway we got the strong rises and I was up a substantial chunk of change….I didn’t take the profit at that stage because I thought 6500 was achievable……this happens to me a lot…..I have all this blue and I don’t take it….I wouldn’t blame you for thinking what a clown take the money….but heres the kicker……i wouldn’t have got the big gains if I had taken the profit at +15 or +25 like a lot of people would…I’ve been thinking and thinking and thinking what’s going on in the grey matter…….it’s like I look at all the blue but my brain won’t let me press the button to complete the trade…..I think I may have found the answer in the first video I posted by Rande……OK so to get the gains I have controlled my emotions to such an extent that I don’t mind taking heat as the position oscillates ….take my Dax swing I have entries on that from the 9800 area…it’s been over 10400 but I’m just chilled out waiting for that 1000 pt gain …now I think this is the problem…..on that Weds when I had all those gains on Ftse all I had to do was press the button but I think I had controlled my emotions that well that, like in randes first video above the reason side of my brain was overpowered by the risk on emotional side I have developed so that’s why I couldn’t press the button….I’m out of balance…..I think I’ve controlled emotion that well that ive lost the reason side…..so in the end I closed out Friday for a small loss to minimise Risk….it’s so demoralising I did the same thing this last week to a much lesser extent but ended up coming out at a loss…. I need to control the emotion UNTIL I have a reasonable profit…..then the reason side of my brain needs to come back on line and say Grab it now……looks like I’m going to have to try again…im not sure how much resilience I have left but if I’m right with this I could be close to figuring it out….

    1. Yes,I’m with Chippy up above about the usefulness of pullbacks though,taking r off the weekly and trading off the 1min and 3min etc is uncomfortable.Something like 6343 is the weekly closing high this year now,414 on the daily close Ftse is above its S on daily,Dax opened on it and came up.Above the mid 60’s on Dax and R1 at 81 is 200 area then 300,R2 is 323.Sell in May or the 10 day trend turns back up,that 8.10 to 9.45 climb had 3 failed bear indicators in it pretty bullish.Re Psychology it’s worth writing mood stuff down in trade notes,that can tell you a lot about relationships too lol,once youve written the same stuff down in your notes 20 odd times it starts to sink in eg I really cant talk to some people and then expect to make money.

      1. Yes chippy is right take the money…..but where….it’s where to take it..if I take it too early I never get the big gains…but then it slips away…it’s the 6 million dollar question …….how much is enough and how much is too much……nobody ever said it was easy :0) arrrggghhhhh.time for a bank holiday cup of tea…..good luck .

  46. Not trading Ftse today with that spread…..not touching the Dax either….might have a look at the Dow later for clues on sentiment.GL.

    1. Yes,if you play off wider timeframes probably best to leave the dax today,apart from these bankers this week and the dollar there is the Chinese data,be clearer after their mfg tomorrow,maybe.This is just noise if you are working off 4hr,8hr charts etc mostly round numbers to watch and about 10375 I think.
      I like Zangers honesty re Tech bubble,he saw the chance made the money and kept it.I think most guys teaching trading made their money at the same time,but they never mention that,then they lost most of it and they never mention that either.Dan Shapiro is honest about when he was losing and worth a look,he lost the Tech profits.One of my favourite books is by a guy who is prety dubious,fined for his track record claims and unlicensed trading service :),but I know that and it doesnt bother me,some of the guys selling training are arrogant about it and it isnt justified,that irritates me.Shapiro is on Sang Lucci on You Tube.The Sang Lucci suff is worth a look.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR7JuZYRtGU

  47. Looks like some interest in the Dow…..little long on Dax at 44. May as well try some short term stuff…

      1. Dax is making heavy weather of 150,still think it can get to the 60’s on its own steam this seems a bit resistant though,not sure if its good or bad that the Dow is still shut now.

        1. Looking on the hourly Dax it’s hitting the 50 sma and bouncing down again off it at present.

          2. I’m thinking if Dax drops sub 130 to go long ……small the 50 sma on 3min is about 127.5

          3. yes up against descending sma’s in a few places now,still got an uptrend though 🙂

          5. Yes,I’ve started snatching at points,never a good sign with me,start to feel i am buying Resistance,I’m going to sit back for a bit and let it get away from this area.

          6. My impression now is Dax is looking at a breakout to the upside next decent pullback I’m going to add a small long.

          8. Yes I’m looking for negatives it’s just that high from 10.15 we have been pushing against for an hour or so,without the 10.15 touch I’d like it better.I’d like to see it turn above 129 or so,but all that matters is probably a close +/- 10100 for the bigger picture and that is up to the U.S.

          11. Yes,good to break the focus a bit or it breaks itself.Dow looks like it will move up from here when it opens,going by the 15min.

          12. There’s one thing I have noticed about us WSF…..we both know how hard trading is…..but we both put a large amount of effort into trying to improve …….looking at a Cameron fous video he stated he struggled for the first 3 years…….Charlie burton says its going to take between 2-4 years to be consistant…..and your video above he had been studying patterns for 7 years I think……good job we are both patient……:0)

          13. Dax got a bit higher that time.
            I reckon by the time the right Mkt arrives (metals,Oil,defence Stocks or something) I’ll be ok to do a Zanger 🙂 it’ll be easier than using Indices to get out of my former partners business plan,this is mostly slogging along,sometimes i think it’s work and discipline,but the rest of the time it’s practice,which helps with not getting tied to any trade,like doing a lot of hours.It isnt about looking for trades to hit targets and forgetting to be cautious.I really dont care about missing 20 points around 10150 or whatever,because in 6 and a half hours time I’ll still be here lol bound to hit my target.I’ve got 935 scalps this year,only comp problems kept me from hitting 1000 last month.It’s mathematically impossible not to come out ahead from that number of trades with any system and it kills most of the emotion too usually,pretty much always with the scalps unless its like that speech the other week or something.

          14. Outside of scalping the win rate is lower and it takes longer to hit the trade frequency for the stats to work,so that will have harder periods of time I think.When I was just trying to trade ranges it was a lot more miserable,felt more uncertain all the time.

          15. Re your former partners business plan….I think she made a big error….because when you finally find the path to consistency she is going to realise she has slipped up…..ha…..what a shame for her……meanwhile you can look for a younger more loyal partner who can support you and encourage you on your path to greater things :0) .

          16. I was thinking of a different Partner,but that’s true too,lol it’s complicated,better at cutting my losses with trades anyway that’s for sure.

          17. Yeah lol trading is very hard…..but chicks now there’s a proper challenge :0)

    1. U.S likes these tops and tails at the open,probably machines exaggerating orders people have placed.Draghi in 25 mins.

      1. I think that’s been my problem…I switched off fear off loss when a trade was struggling….took the emotions out of it,but in so doing I lost the reasoning side of …. there’s £x profit press the button and bank it because I’d suppressed the fear of loss that much that I wasn’t scared of losing the gains until afterwards when I realised what I’d done….all very clever stuff…..I think the secret to trading is within us…..not so much charts and technical stuff…

        1. I’m using this 1 euro Dax trade to make notes of how I feel as it moves around…..it’s very interesting…..

          1. Yes always worth writing a lot down and looking for what repeats.
            I’m hoping Dow 60 min just found its uptrend support,find out in a bit lol.

          2. Another thing to bear in mind is that when the Dax drops….. for eg now …..what is happening in reality is nobody wants to buy shares at this point in time…. Probably because they are waiting to see what Mario says…it’s just buying pressure….doesn’t always mean there’s a problem……

          8. yes if it can hold it might see an attempt at another 100,especially if they have good mfg numbers at 15.00 and the banks already know 🙂 making hard work of getting above it though.

  51. ECB say 30 mins before U.s data releases there is a pattern of Informed trading 🙂

  52. The Dax doesn’t seem to want to break through the 50 sma on the hourly….it’s like a brick wall at the moment.

    1. Dow woke up just as I was writing a negative comment re the 54,this is promising 🙂

        1. Shapiro trades off 60 min charts as a base I think,you might find that useful,if you can find an interview where he talks a bit about it,it’s probably in that link I posted,not sure.

          1. Think this has become more about staying over friday’s range than pushing up now

  53. Had to nip off visitors……Dax down a bit….Dows holding pretty nicely it’s an interesting market the Dax…very sensitive….I’m always happiest if the Dax is composed it seems to be sat on support just now on the 3 min

    1. I guess the holiday close is over and its normal close at this time on their system.

  55. I wouldn’t mind picking up some Ftse in the 40s if it became available…….

    1. I think we are in consolidation,but I’m a bit wary of all the people who didnt get the Yellen email and want to sell in May 🙂

      1. I don’t know. Sell in May and go away…….last xmas the market was weak but we still got a Santa rally of sorts…….I wouldn’t discount some selling that’s for sure this month…..on the other hand if it is opposite world who knows…..just have to take what we are given and do our best I suppose…..Maybe Mr P doesn’t like holidays :0)

        1. Hey, we would only be having a good laugh out with mates somewhere :0)…… No pain no gain…..could be worse ….we could be chasing chicks……that could potentially be very expensive :0) nah rather be trying to learn about this…..I think I’ve seen all Rande’s videos now……:0)

          1. Increases the chance of getting payed this week and having the money by Friday anyway 🙂

  57. Went to sleep with ASX at 5252 and now it’s at 5356,Australians cut rates 🙂 they sem to be saying it’s about Chinese productivity being iffy,nothing to do with the dollar lol they should charge the U.S military rent to make a bit of spare cash.

    1. The optimism hasn’t translated to the northern hemisphere yet…maybe it’s buy in May in Australia !

      1. 🙂 Well calling the top of their Property bubble has turned into a daily prayer for people who did the smart thing and rented.

      1. should of kept my short from yesterday, was expecting a rise today not another selloff only the Aussie in the blue today.

      2. Went 200sma to 50 sma,fwiw this is roughly 50% retrace on the last upswing by day chart.

      1. I’ll wait for it to clear a higher timeframe trend line,was going to short sub 200 on Ftse,but now I’m thinking I’ll go to the Gym in an hr or so and see what it looks like closer to Dow open.That has nothing to do with the Dow being 50 points above it’s Friday low as that would be embarassing to admitt 🙂

  60. What do you make of this market this morning WSF…..no buyers to speak of….it’s almost like all the buy buttons have been switched off……?

    1. Ftse is restrained compared to the dax,but the dax was playing catch up on the upside and came up pretty well before,so it’s all still within bigger picture lines on the day chart,although the dax is below the first set of levels I wrote down for today and its undeniably bearish.I dont think it will keep falling,but tomorrow might be a better day for trading Europe, I wasnt on the opening fall though so missed that rush through s1,s2 and s3 excitement,might take it more seriously if I’d had that,a lot of people called it and they wont change their minds too soon.FOMC Mester is on some panel at 15.30,still 50 points over Friday low on the Dow,even if it is shut.

      1. Thanks for the overview WSF……we are back to the …can it break 200 on Ftse at moment………tmfp said last week every time it falls it makes buyers reluctant to push it back up to previous levels…..so it’s going to need some strong positive sentiment from the Dow to push it up again….or maybe the Dax but that comes back to the Shut market debate.

  61. Hello guys, thought I’d find you here, Nick having a lie in again no doubt.
    Good clear out this morning, both the ftse and the DAX have given up on trying to find interim support and gone back to that big lateral prev resistance around 9900/10000 and 6200 from March which should hold if this is a proper bull market still.
    The thing with that type of support/resistance is that it’s a general band that can still be burrowed into but not actually be seen as broken until it’s too late.
    The Dax uptrend is around 9780 and really needs to hold and bounce strongly but there isn’t really a comparable level on the ftse.
    Intraday, I guess long rather than short around here, simply because the size of the drop so far, but certainly don’t marry anything.
    DOW might ride to the rescue later but that’s still 5 hours away and it’s had its own technical problems recently.
    Third try at 950 now on the DAX, better hold or 920 in the blink of a eye imo.
    We need 10000 and 6220 to break and hold before calling a bottom for the morning really.

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