Good morning. Bit of a slow start on the FTSE there in terms of points. The 6150 short came good, though there was a suspicious spike up to 6174 before it dropped down to the 6035 level. The long managed a few points off the support, but wasn’t quite the easy ride up I was hoping for. The 200ema at 6035 on the 30 minute chart provided good support in the evening, and the bulls are pushing to get this back above 6100 as I write. We have NFP out at 13:30 today, with the US expected to add 203K jobs in September, back above August’s 173K.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell as investors awaited a monthly government report on U.S. jobs to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.5 percent to 125.22 as of 9:16 a.m. in Tokyo. Economists expect U.S. employers to have added about 201,000 workers in September after a gain of 173,000 in August. The data will factor into the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision, due Oct. 28, as the central bank also weighs global financial-market turmoil.

The regional benchmark index’s drop Friday trimmed its advance this week to 0.1 percent with mainland Chinese markets currently shut for a week-long holiday.

“Asia is in for a bit of indigestion today,” said Angus Nicholson, a Melbourne-based market analyst at IG Ltd. “Some of the gains will be pared back as the markets position themselves ahead of the all-important U.S. non-farm payrolls number due out tonight.”

Japan’s Topix index retreated 0.6 percent. Bank of Japan officials see little need for an immediate expansion of monetary stimulus and would prefer to hold off to get a clearer picture of the economic outlook, according to people familiar with their deliberations.

Board members who gather for a policy meeting Oct. 6-7 want the opportunity to observe further economic data and developments in financial markets at home and abroad, according to the people, who asked not to be named because talks are private.

Regional Gauges
South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index was little changed. Markets in Hong Kong have yet to open.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.2 percent. The underlying gauge rose 0.2 percent in New York on Thursday, reversing a drop of as much as 1 percent.

American manufacturing barely grew in September. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 50.2, the weakest since May 2013, the Tempe, Arizona-based group reported Thursday. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

We have a bit of resistance at 6100 to start with this morning so I think we may see a dip this morning to take us down 6055 which looks like fairly decent support so worth a long here. Looking at the Dow I can see a dip and rise day for that today, with 16180ish level providing the support. If those levels hold then we could be on for a fairly decent bounce today, probably after NFP comes out at 13:30. The bulls will be keen to at least reach the top of the daily channels around the 6150 level, though with both Bianca channels there and going into the weekend we may see a pullback from there as profit is banked if that 6050 level does provide support. So, fairly simple plan today and going for a V shaped day.

Good morning. Bullish end to the quarter yesterday and those 2 shorts both got stopped out, even managing to break the top of the 10 day down channel. Beginning of the new month will see some new funds flowing ion this morning so expecting a bit of upside from that and we are still testing the top of the daily channels – both the Raffs are around this 6150 area. If the market isn’t too careful its going to rise too far too fast, get overbought and then come back down sharpish! Probably after NFP tomorrow….

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks followed U.S. shares higher, after the regional benchmark index posted its worst quarter since 2011, as investors awaited Chinese factory data.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.2 percent to 124.09 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge slumped 15 percent in the three months ended September. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.9 percent in New York Wednesday, its best rally in three weeks, paring its quarterly drop to 6.9 percent.

With almost $11 trillion erased from global shares in the past three months, investors turn to Thursday’s Chinese manufacturing reports for clues on the extent of the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. Riskier markets have been sold amid decelerating growth in China, a prolonged commodity slump and an exodus from developing-nation assets as the U.S. prepares to raise interest rates as soon as this year. With a week-long holiday in China from Thursday, money managers will then assess Friday’s U.S. payrolls report for indications on whether the job market is strong enough to withstand tightening.

“You shouldn’t be surprised if October is at least as volatile as September,” said Don Williams, Sydney-based fund manager at Platypus Asset Management Ltd. “The environment is still tough and earnings growth is hard to come by.”

China PMI
China’s statistics bureau is scheduled to release an official manufacturing index for September on Thursday. The reading will probably be 49.7, unchanged from a month earlier, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. Recent data have been weak, with a preliminary reading of a private factory gauge falling to the lowest level since the global financial crisis and industrial profits slumping the most in at least four years.

Japan’s Topix index gained 0.7 percent. The Tankan index of sentiment among large manufacturers fell to 12 in the third quarter, from 15 in the previous three months, the Bank of Japan said. Economists had expected a reading of 13. Big companies across all industries plan to boost capital expenditure by 10.9 percent this fiscal year, more than the median economist estimate of 8.7 percent.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.2 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slipped 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.2 percent.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Could be an interesting day today, especially going into NFP tomorrow and with ISM Manufacturing today in the US. We have popped above the 10 day Bianca channel overnight at 6097, however, both the 10 and 20 day Raff channels are around the 6150 area, so we may well get a dip from this area. The daily pivot is down at 6021 for today so support there, with 5990 below that. As you can see from the chart below there is a fairly decent looking 10 minute (rising) channel in play, with support around the monthly pivot area at 6078. I don’t think we will get as low as the pivot today, with the 6078 area holding for support, but if it breaks then its more likely. At the moment the various moving averages are all bullish so the bias is still long, and the Dax is just popping above its daily Raff channels too, after these big overnight rises, so a bit of a gap close start might well be likely.

Good morning. Interesting day yesterday that played out with the arrows exceptionally well – but frustratingly just missed the long order first thing by 3 points (knew I should have set it at 5975!). Overnight we have had the rise to the 5980n area and with the 200ema here on the 30min chart it will be interesting to see if we get an initial dip to the 5940 area, before a push higher towards 6035 where we have the top of the 10 day Bianca channel. Prices are certainly moving around a fair bit at the moment with the volatility. Glencore came out fighting yesterday (had to really!) and their shares rallied 17% after saying that the business was viable. Its the end of the quarter today so the market might be keen to apply a bit of polish to the performance, Asia certainly has with MSCI’s Asia Pacific gauge rallying 2 percent in Tokyo, trimming its loss since the end of June to less than 16 percent, still the most since at least the third quarter of 2011.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose on the final day of the quarter, tracking a late rally in U.S. shares, as the regional benchmark index headed for its worst three months since the financial crisis.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent to 121.40 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure has slumped 17 percent since the end of June, on course for the biggest drop since the quarter ended September 2008. It’s down 6.6 percent for the month.

Stocks have been volatile in recent weeks amid confusion over the Federal Reserve’s position on raising interest rates and concern the slowdown in China’s economy will curb demand for commodities and impact global growth. China starts a five-day holiday Thursday.

“Asian markets will be closing the month and quarter on what looks like a positive note,” said Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG Ltd. in Melbourne “And given what an absolute shocker it’s been, traders will certainly take this.”

Japan’s Topix index advanced 1.5 percent after tumbling 4.4 percent on Tuesday. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 1.4 percent today as it reopened from a two-day holiday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.1 percent, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slid 0.4 percent.

Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.7 percent in most recent trading, while those on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added 0.9 percent. The H-share gauge slid 3 percent on Tuesday, the biggest loss in a month, while the Hang Seng measure dropped 3 percent to a two-year low.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent. The underlying gauge advanced 0.1 percent on Tuesday, following five days of losses. The S&P 500 is poised for its worst quarter since 2011, down 8.7 percent. The benchmark measure is almost 12 percent below its all-time high set in May. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

The FTSE is just nearing the 200ema on the 30min chart as I write this so we may well see some resistance there and a little dip to start today, probably only down to the daily pivot at 5922. There is some rising 30min PRT support at 5930 as well, and with a green trend line now in play the 30min chart looks positive for a bullish session (at the moment anyway!). Its quarter end today so with bonuses etc tied into that, we may well have a bullish overtone. I think a rise towards the 10 day Bianca channel at 6035 is looking likely, and if it hits that level at around the market close, then a dip from there is also likely. We also have a PRT line at 6020 so a couple of resistance levels here. So bullish today, bearish tomorrow I am feeling!

Good morning. Well that got bearish quickly yesterday. There was an initial move up on the Dax, S&P and FTSE (stop hunt), before all 3 fell, and was just a bit early with the Dax short. Wasn’t expecting a 200 point fall on the FTSE, even though I am in short the rallies mode. We ended up testing the bottom of the 20 day Bianca at 5909 just before the end of the US session which saw a little bounce (coincided with Dow hitting 16000). The mining sector took a bashing with Glencore looking rather ropey at the moment — the shares dropped 25% yesterday. Its the usual story of too much debt and the fall in commodity prices has meant that debt isn’t as serviceable as it was. Over leverage – has killed off many a trader, many a company and even countries (looking at you Greece).

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, with the benchmark index heading for the lowest close since November 2012, as a selloff in U.S. and European markets spread to the region and material shares led losses.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated 1.4 percent to 122.96 as of 9:10 a.m. in Tokyo, on course to slide 16 percent this quarter. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slumped 2.6 percent on Monday amid a rout in commodity and biotechnology shares, while a gauge of global equities fell to a two-year low. Glencore Plc slumped 29 percent, dragging the Bloomberg World Mining Index to its lowest level in almost seven years.

Markets have been whipsawed as China’s economy falters despite stimulus efforts. A gauge of industrial profits fell the most in at least four years, a report showed on Monday, ahead of manufacturing data this week that should provide further clues on the health of Asia’s largest economy. The specter of higher interest rates in the U.S. is also weighing on sentiment, with Federal Reserve officials ramping up rhetoric in favor of a 2015 rate increase.

“The slowdown in China is spreading to other Asian economies, Brazil and Australia, and weakness in emerging countries could echo throughout the overall world economy,” said Toshihiko Matsuno, chief strategist at SMBC Friend Securities Co. in Tokyo. “We still don’t know when market fears will end about China’s slowdown, and because of this investors are turning to cash and safe assets.”

Regional Gauges
Japan’s Topix index lost 2.4 percent after the yen gained 0.6 percent against the dollar on Monday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 2.3 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index fell 0.9 percent. Markets in South Korea are closed for a holiday and those in China, Hong Kong and India are yet to open. Taiwan’s equity market is shut because of a typhoon.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent after the underlying gauge’s drop on Monday sent the measure to a one-month low. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index sank 6 percent following its worst week since 2011. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. fell the most in four years.

Data Monday showed household spending climbed more than forecast in August, indicating consumers will help the U.S. economy muddle through any global slowdown.

New York Fed President William C. Dudley said on Monday that the U.S. economy was “doing pretty well” and that the U.S. central bank will probably raise rates later this year. John Williams, head of the San Francisco Fed, also reiterated his expectation that borrowing costs will be boosted in 2015, adding that the jobless rate will probably fall to below 5 percent this year.

“Volatility is going to stay high,” Dan Suzuki, a strategist at Bank of America Corp., told Bloomberg TV in New York. “There’s a general sense that people don’t want to go all into these markets.” [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

I was a bit too optimistic for yesterday expecting the bulls to rise to 6150 before the downside started. I seem to be running 24 hours early with my hunches the past few sessions so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the 5875/5892 area hold as support for today with a rise towards the daily pivot at 5986. My 2 hour chart has resistance at 6010ish as well and this level could be worth a short to hold for a few days, maybe even to reach 5700. Trends are all still down, volatility is up and I still think we will see 5700 soon – shorting the rallies seems to be the way to be at the moment. The Dow has just snuck below the 16000 level so may well pull back above that today before another leg down to the August lows (15200 area). So for today I am thinking we will be flat to slightly bullish, but should present a good opportunity for shorting, especially at the 6010 area if seen.

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