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Good morning. It was another volatile day with the markets moving sharply down on geopolitical tensions following the downing of a Russian warplane near the Syrian border. Still, it meant that the 6295 short came good quickly, closing out at 6260 a few minutes after the open. The 6220 support area held during the later stages of the day and there was an afternoon rally on stronger than expected US economic data pushing the FT100 back up towards the 6300 level. The travel sector was the hardest hit following a U.S. travel warning, while oils were strong on oil supply concerns in the Middle East on mounting tensions.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, dragged lower by Japanese shares as the yen gained after Turkey downed a Russian warplane, fueling demand for haven assets.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1 percent to 134.37 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.5 percent after the yen rose 0.3 percent against the dollar on Tuesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the shooting down of his country’s plane by Turkish forces near their border with northeastern Syria would have “serious consequences.” The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 1.2 percent on Tuesday.

The incident added “to a growing sense of geopolitical unease that has built up since the attacks in Paris,” said Jasper Lawler, a London-based market analyst at CMC Markets Plc.

While European stocks sold off on the warplane news, the impact was more limited in the U.S. as political analysts in Russia and Europe said a major escalation seems unlikely given the risks associated with any conflict between Russia and Turkey, a NATO member. The downing of the plane comes as Brussels remains on the highest-level terror alert amid what officials have called credible terrorist threats and after the U.S. State Department issued a global alert for Americans.

The Asia Pacific gauge is down 2.5 percent this year, poised for its first back-to-back annual declines since 2002 as investors assess the extent of China’s economic slowdown amid preparations by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as early as next month.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.1 percent on Wednesday as consumer firms declined while energy and materials producers rallied after a two-day slide. South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed and New Zealand’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent.

Futures the FTSE China A50 Index added 0.2 percent in most recent trading. China has canceled a rule requiring brokerages to hold daily net long positions in their proprietary trading accounts as the nation’s stock market stabilizes following its summer slump, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent. The S&P 500 closed 0.1 percent higher on Tuesday. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Today’s pivot is 6280 and we have a rising positive trend line (coral) on the 30min at 6275, so a long around this level might well be worth a go. There is a rising channel on the 30min chart with support at 6250 and resistance at 6350. We have a fairly small dividend today of 2.8 points so unlikely to see much buying at the close from he divi hunters today. If the bulls do get the rise from the pivot then 6315 is the first level of resistance that they will need to break. With all the turmoil in the world at the moment the indices are holding up pretty well! If the bulls do play ball today then the top of the 20 day Bianca at 6363 looks worth a short as that would roughly tally with the top of that 30min channel, and also R1 at 6340. On the flip side, if we dip down to 6220 again then this might well be worth a long for a double bottom bounce.

Good morning. It was a choppy day of trading with the FTSE100 oscillating around the 6300 level. The bias was definitely negative with commodity prices hitting their lowest levels in 13 years and the US dollar at its highest in 8 months. The Euro also fell to a 7 month low on prospect of ECB easing. In terms of sectors, commodities and supermarkets were the main losers, the latter on margin concerns which has dogged the sector for some time now. The best sector was defence on announcements of increased government spending.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell as tumbling commodity prices dragged raw-materials shares lower, with BHP Billiton Ltd. on course to close at the lowest since 2008.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1 percent to 134.16 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo, as Japanese markets opened after a holiday. Material shares led losses among the regional measure’s 10 industry groups. The increased likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this year is sending the dollar higher, making industrial metals more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. Copper fell below $4,500 a metric ton for the first time in six years and nickel touched the lowest in more than a decade. U.S. crude rose back above $42 per barrel after Saudi Arabia pledged to help stabilize markets.

“Wild gyrations in oil and another copper tumble could see further pressure on resource stocks,” said Michael McCarthy, chief markets strategist in Sydney at CMC Markets. “The rhetoric from the Fed suggests numbers would have to fall off a cliff to stop an interest-rate rise in December.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.4 percent. BHP Billiton fell 1.7 percent in Sydney, the biggest drag on the regional benchmark gauge. Rio Tinto Group lost 1.1 percent.

Regional Gauges
Japan’s Topix index slipped 0.2 percent. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index added 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed.

Markets in Hong Kong and China have yet to open. Futures on the Hang Seng Index added 0.2 percent in most recent trading, as did contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6 percent on Monday on a slump in technology companies as the securities regulator gave the green light to initial public offerings following a five-month freeze.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. The underlying gauge slipped 0.1 percent Monday as gains in consumer companies were overshadowed by a retreat in Allergan Plc and Pfizer Inc. amid their record $160 billion merger. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Certainly quite choppy at the moment and a bit directionless. The bulls failed to break the daily pivot yesterday at the 6328 area, and today the daily pivot is resistance at 6295. If the bulls are able to break through this level then a rise to 6320, and possibly 6345 looks doable, though there is a decent downtrending channel on the 10min and 30min charts at the moment. Key support on the 30min chart is at 6280, if the bears break through this (its possible as this would be the third test of the rising support line on the 30min chart) then a decline to 6220 looks possible. So, its in a pretty narrow range as I am writing this of just 15 points between decent support and resistance. I think a short off the pivot at 6295 is worth a try initially, though be easy to flip to long of the bull looks to be pushing through this level.

Good morning. The FTSE100 ended a strong week on a stable note with a gain of just a few points. It’s promising to see that there was little profit taking after recent gains and so consolidation was the mood for Friday, but at least that short netted a few points. In terms of sectors there was no real trend either way, with special situations providing the biggest movers.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian commodity stocks declined while consumer shares advanced, leaving a regional equity gauge little changed following last week’s rally.

Markets in South Korea and Australia edged up as Japan was closed for a holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index was little changed at 420.55 as of 8:26 a.m. in Hong Kong, before Chinese markets opened, after climbing 2.4 percent last week.

With interest-rate futures now predicting a 68 percent probability that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates next month and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signalling he may soon boost stimulus, investors are watching economic data releases to assess global monetary policy divergence.

“Markets are going to be driven by expectations about the key coming events, which are the ECB next week and payrolls” in the U.S., Richard Yetsenga, head of global markets research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., told Bloomberg TV in Sydney. “Markets will be nervous ahead of that.”

John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said at the weekend that there was a “strong case” for a December rate hike, a day after his counterpart at the St Louis Fed, James Bullard, said the pace of any increases will be data dependent. The comments came after Draghi said ECB officials “will do what we must” to boost price growth, weakening the euro and fueling gains in shorter-maturity German bunds.

Regional Gauges
The Kospi index added 0.2 percent, with volume 16 percent below its 30-day average. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.2 percent and New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index rose 0.8 percent.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent. The underlying gauge gained 0.4 percent on Friday, bringing its gain last week to 3.3 percent, the most since December.

Commodities producers accounted for the biggest declines on the Asia-Pacific regional gauge. Copper in New York traded near its weakest price since 2009. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, declined 2.5 percent and Rio Tinto Group slipped 1.1 percent in Sydney.

Woolworths Ltd. led consumer shares higher, climbing 2.9 percent, the most in a month, after the Australian Financial Review reported private equity firms are eyeing the retailer’s Big W unit.

Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.3 percent, while contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index gained 0.4 percent in most recent trading. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

We have a pretty decent rising 30min channel with support from the channel also coinciding with the 200ema at around the 6300 area. As such there could well be some support here this morning, and if we follow Asia and the ASX200 then we should have a fairly flat to slightly bullish day. If the bears break through that 6300 are then a decline to the bottom for he descending channel looks likely, with support at the 6240 area. Todays pivot is 6328, so if the bears can break the 34sma on the 10min at 6317 initially, a rise to that pivot looks likely. The 30 minute chart has 25ema resistance initially at 6320 which is why I think the bulls will have some initial resistance here. If the bulls really go for it and break the 6345 area then 6385 looks possible for the top of the 30min channel, though with the 20 day Bianca at 6350 I think the upside might be limited today.

Good morning. The FTSE was buoyed by indications from the U.S. Federal Reserve late on Wednesday that the U.S. economy was strong enough to cope with an interest rate hike, which many expect it to decide on in December. Also expectations of more monetary support from the European Central Bank (ECB) next month helped push the markets upwards. The commodity sector was a strong early gainer but fell back in the afternoon on demand issues. House builders, banks and supermarkets were the weakest performers perhaps on the effects of the coming upward interest rate cycle.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks pared their biggest weekly advance in six weeks, with Japanese shares dragged lower by a stronger yen.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.2 percent to 133.71 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, paring this week’s climb to 1.2 percent. The gauge posted the biggest daily jump in a month on Thursday amid optimism the Federal Reserve’s pace of tightening will be gradual, taking its rebound to 11 percent from a September low.

“The Fed has made it clear that its base case is for a lift off in December and if they were to break that, it would be a huge, market-moving event,” said Evan Lucas, Melbourne-based strategist at IG Ltd. “It’s been very positive for markets this week, with equities responding favorably to this macro picture.”

Japan’s Topix index slipped 0.4 percent, paring a fifth week of gains, as the yen held Thursday’s 0.6 percent advance. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who unleashed unprecedented monetary stimulus at the Bank of Japan in 2013 and doubled down on it last year, is done expanding his efforts, according to an increasing number of economists. He is due to speak on Friday.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.1 percent and New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index advanced 0.6 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.1 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.1 percent and those on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added 0.2 percent.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.1 percent. The underlying gauge is up 2.9 percent this week. The measure slipped 0.1 percent Thursday, after fluctuating throughout the day, as UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s profit warning rattled the health-care sector and oil’s descent sank energy producers. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Bit more bullish than I expected yesterday with an eventual rise to the top of the Raff channels at the 6370 area, as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting reassured investors the world’s biggest economy can withstand higher borrowing costs.. However, from there the bears reappeared with a dip back down. Looking at the 30minute chart there is more resistance than support on the face of it so I am favouring a slight dip today. We have resistance at the 6345/50 area so I think that any early bullishness might get tempered here, and we see a dip down to 6320 or lower.

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