Good morning. Well the FTSE wasn’t quite as bullish as it could have been, failing to break the 6710 area, but spent most of the day fairly flat with the 6672 support area holding till after hours. Fortunately yesterdays S&P trade worked well, running to target at 2108 before falling back. Gold didn’t fair so well though, which continued falling while indices did in the latter stages of the US session. Greece’s stock market reopened and immediately had its biggest ever fall, 22%. For the FTSE 6730 still looks like the main resistance area for the bulls to break, with a rise to 6780 possible.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks dropped after Brent crude slid below $50 a barrel for the first time since January, dragging commodity producers lower.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.3 percent to 140.70 as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.2 percent ahead of Tuesday’s central bank interest-rate decision. Chinese stock-index futures fell after regulators imposed limits on short selling on Monday in its latest effort to suppress volatility.

Speculation Iran could boost oil output soon after sanctions are lifted and mounting concern over slowing Chinese economic growth fueled commodity losses, with energy and materials shares sliding around the world. The plunge in oil and data, indicating a pullback in U.S. manufacturing, bolstered the case for keeping American rates lower, as the Federal Reserve mulls its first increase since 2006 as early as next month.

“Renewed Chinese growth concern is driving commodities and stock prices lower,” said Matthew Sherwood, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at Perpetual Ltd., which manages the equivalent of $24 billion. “With earnings season concluding this week, all eyes are likely to look back at the clouded macro picture. China and Greece remain problematic and the U.S. Fed is likely to remain at the forefront of investors’ concerns.”

Japan’s Topix index retreated 0.3 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index fell 1.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.2 percent.

Australian Rates
While most economists predict the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave the benchmark cash rate unchanged at 2 percent at its meeting on Tuesday in Sydney, Stevens has said the option of further easing remains on the table. Swaps markets are pricing in about a 90 percent chance of a reduction in the next year, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index fell 0.4 percent in most recent trading. With mainland Chinese stocks dropping for six of the past seven days, regulators announced the short-selling restrictions after markets closed Monday. Those who borrow shares will have to wait a day to pay back the loans, according to statements.

Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index decreased 0.2 percent and contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland firms listed in the city added 0.1 percent.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.2 percent after the underlying gauge yesterday retreated 0.3 percent. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Yesterday high at 6710 will be the level that the bulls need to break, for a push to the 6730 area. If they manage to break this the the top of the Bianca 10 day at 6780 looks likely to get hit, as we also have the daily 200ema and top of the 20 day Raff here. As such looks a good place for a short. The daily pivot is 6671 today, pretty much where we are as I write this, so we may have a pull back from here initially, possibly back down to the 200ema area on the 30min at 6650. We also have the bottom of the rising 30min channel that held yesterday at this level, so i have gone for a fairly bullish play off this level. Below this then 6625 is a fairly decent support level, though looking at the 10minute chart its a fairly bullish start as I am writing. so, 6648, 6710, 6730, 6780 all look like the main areas for action today.

S&P Analysis

S&P Prediction

S&P Prediction

That was a very quick trade really on this yesterday though it bounced perfectly at the long entry, and ran to the 2108 target. Should have flipped to short really as it fell away to 2088! For today, the pivot is 2098, where we are as I write this so we may see an initial dip from this resistance level, down towards the 2095 and possible 2090 level. Below this there is support at 2084 and 2082, the former being the bottom of the 30min channel.

LONG 2088, stop 2083 target 2100+

Dax Analysis

Dax Analysis

Dax Analysis

Didn’t quite dip as far as I wanted for that long entry which was a shame as it then took off upwards to 11450+. Todays pivot is 11374 for support initially, and with a rising 30min channel and the daily EMAs just crossing over to bull, we might be on for some upwards action early this week. The daily EMAs show support around the 11350 area. On the 30min we have support at 11295 and 11328. Resistance is 11454, 11501,

LONG 11350, stop 11335, target 11450+

Good morning. Well here we go with a new month, this year seems to be zipping by. Focus currently has swung to interest rates and when and who will be raising them first. Yellen is kind of backed into a bit of a corner for a rise next month so we shall see.I imagine the US will raise and then the UK will follow suit. Don’t want to do it too early though as we seem to be having a pre crisis rush for debt with loads of people leveraging themselves up while money is cheap. Lets hope they can sustain it with a 3 or 4% interest rate, otherwise hello recession. Again. Greek markets open today after a 5 week suspension, while talks are still ongoing about the austerity measures and debt relief reforms.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days as data showed a Chinese factory gauge slipped to a five-month low and energy shares retreated amid a drop in oil.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index slipped 0.3 percent to 141.67 as of 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure lost 0.4 percent last week for a second weekly decline. The official China Purchasing Managers’ Index was 50 in July, compared with the median estimate of 50.1 in a Bloomberg survey and down from June’s 50.2. Energy shares sank as crude futures in New York slid as much as 1.6 percent after Iran claimed it will be able to bolster production a week after sanctions are lifted.

“China will have several hard questions asked of it over the week, feeding into concern it’s facing a hard landing,” Evan Lucas, a markets strategist in Melbourne at IG Ltd., wrote in an e-mail to clients. “We see a slightly negative start to August.”

Japan’s Topix index fell 0.1 percent. More than 70 companies in the nation’s benchmark gauge are scheduled to report earnings today.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index gains 0.5 percent. Markets in Hong Kong and China are yet to open.

Futures on the FTSE A50 Index of China’s largest companies advanced 0.4 percent in most recent trading. The Shanghai Composite Index resumed a decline last week, tumbling 10 percent after three weekly gains. Most of the loss came on July 27, when the Chinese measure tumbled 8.5 percent for its largest daily slump since 2007.

China, Oil
A final reading of a private gauge of Chinese manufacturing due Monday is expected to show further contraction in the sector.

West Texas Intermediate crude declined as much as 1.6 percent after capping its worst month since 2008 in July amid concern over a global supply glut. Iranian production can increase by 500,000 barrels a day within a week after sanctions end, and by 1 million barrels a day within a month following that, state-run Islamic Republic News Agency said.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.1 percent after the underlying equity measure lost 0.2 percent on Friday in New York. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Todays pivot is 6681 and I think that might well hold as support initially. Typical hr start of a new month is fairly bullish as we see a decent amount of buying, certainly first thing. If the pivot does hold then I can see a rise to the top of the 30min channel at 6720, before dropping back. I have put in another leg up though after that to the top for he 10 day Bianca channel at 6740. If we get that high today then a 60 point rise might well be worth a short from that level. Above that there are some daily resistance levels at 6770 and6780. Support wise, below the pivot we have the bottom of that 30min channel and fib 1 at 6655, so this could well be a good place for another long. Generally I think August might be fairly bullish and if so we may even see 7000 again this month. If the 6655 area breaks though then we may follow Australia’s lead and in fact be bearish today.

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