Good morning. A bit unfortunate yesterday for my long order at 6520, as the low was 6521.3 and miss, before getting the rise to 6591 as expected, though it took all day to get there. Today it will be all eyes on the Fed and the prospect of rate rises, though a poor consumer confidence report out in the US yesterday might temper any enthusiasm to raise rates in September. I think he UK will follow the US lead and wait to see the effect of raising rates. Don’t want to do it too soon really….

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose for the first time in six days, following U.S. and European shares higher, as investors awaited an update on monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4 percent to 140.85 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. Better-than-estimated earnings from Pfizer Co. to Ford Motor Co. and mergers among European companies fueled Tuesday’s rally outside Asia, with a gauge of global stocks snapping a five-day slump. Traders will be combing the Fed’s post-meeting statement on Wednesday as policy makers assess the strength of economic growth amid plunging commodity prices and Chinese financial-market turmoil.

“Often when a lot of stocks get washed out, we get a rebound,” Nader Naeimi, Sydney-based head of dynamic asset allocation at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which oversees A$160.5 billion ($117 billion), said by phone. “The Fed will be focused on global conditions. What’s happening globally can’t be totally ignored.”

While economists see no chance the central bank will raise rates this week, they put the odds of a September boost at about 50 percent, a Bloomberg survey published July 22 showed.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen has signaled that the central bank is likely to lift rates this year, and emphasized that the pace of subsequent increases would be gradual. Data showed consumer confidence slumped in July by the most since August 2011 as Americans became less upbeat about prospects for the economy, employment and their finances.

Japan’s Topix index gained 0.5 percent. Fanuc Corp. slumped 0.8 percent in Tokyo after lowering its full-year profit forecast as demand from the information-technology industry declines.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.4 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.8 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index was little changed.

China Futures
Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index, a gauge tracking the country’s biggest mainland stocks, added 1.1 percent in most recent trading, while contracts on the broader Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index were down 2 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index ended Tuesday 1.7 percent lower, paring a slump of as much as 5.1 percent following Monday’s 8.5 percent tumble.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index futures and contracts on the Hang Seng Index both rose 0.3 percent. E-mini futures on the S&P 500 were little changed. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

So far yesterdays 6591 has held as resistance still so with the daily pivot and the bottom of the 30min channel at 6560 I am thinking that we have an initial drop to this level (maybe a slow drop). It might be a fairly flat day while we await direction from the Fed once again, with rates expected to stay the same for the moment but looking for clues as to when they may or may not rise. Below the pivot we have support at 6535, with the bottom of the 20 day Bianca below that at 6476. Not sure it will get that low today.

Above the 6591 resistance area we have the 200ema on the 30min, followed by the 10 day Bianca at 6612 which may be worth a small short, followed by the tops of those 10min and 30min PRT channels both at 6622. We then have 6657 with the 25ema on the daily as a possible stronger shorting area. Generally I think it will be fairly flat till later (7pm) when the Fed roll into town.

Good morning. Well now we have China having a wobble again as the next thing to drive markets lower, which they certainly did yesterday. However, having had a low just below 6500 yesterday the FTSE has bounced back overnight and risen to 6545. A dip from here and then further rises will play out nicely with the moving averages, and that decent bearishness might curtail any rate rises in the near future – maybe pushing back the Fed’s mooted September date. we will find out on Wednesday when they might give us a bit more of a clue. Greece also threw a bit of a spanner in the works yesterday with leaking of the plan for a dual currency – something that everyone had joked about as using the Drachma on the black market had become a standing joke, with a grain of truth it turns out!

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks dropped after a rout in Chinese equities drove global shares lower.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.7 percent to 139.94 as of 9:04 a.m. in Tokyo, extending its five-day fall to 3.7 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index plunged the most in eight years on Monday, intensifying concern government efforts to prop up shares are unsustainable. The turmoil bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve will keep U.S. interest rates lower for longer.

“Extreme caution is needed here,” said Matthew Sherwood, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at Perpetual Ltd., which manages A$33 billion ($24 billion). “The return of market volatility in China will be a significant discussion point at the U.S. Fed. in terms of what this is telling us about the Chinese economy. There is a lot of global weakness and significant external risk.”

Japan’s Topix index declined 1.2 percent as the yen held three days of gains to trade at 123.27 per dollar. South Korea’s Kospi index retreated 0.6 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index lost 0.3 percent.

After the 8.5 percent slide in the Shanghai Composite, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.6 percent at the close in New York on Monday, falling for a fifth day. European stocks sank 2.2 percent and emerging-market shares lost 2 percent.

Continued Support
China’s securities regulator assured investors the government hasn’t withdrawn support for equities.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission will continue to “stabilize” the market and “prevent systemic risk,” spokesman Zhang Xiaojun said in a statement on Monday. He was responding to media reports saying the government was pulling back from support measures adopted after the China’s stock market began tumbling last month, according to the statement.

The International Monetary Fund recently urged China to unwind its support measures, saying share prices should be allowed to settle through market forces, a person familiar with the matter said last week.

Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index, which tracks the largest Chinese companies, slipped 0.2 percent in most recent trading. Contracts on a gauge of mainland shares listed on Hong Kong lost 0.6 percent.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 rose less than 0.1 percent. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

An overnight rise to 6545 looks good for an initial pullback towards the 6520 area where there is, at present, some decent support. As such a long from this area for another test of 6545, and possibly onto 6590 looks a decent set up, certainly for this morning. The US bulls will be hoping that the current bearishness makes the Fed think twice about rate rises in September, and to be honest I think its too soon to raise interest rates. The housing market in the UK is certainly going to get a shock when they start going up. I’ve always thought it would make more sense to have a fixed rate for the life of the mortgage rather than trying to make everyone gamble on what rates are going to do, but anyway. Back to the FTSE and if the bulls break 6545 then the top of the 30min channel at 6575 comes into play, with 6590 above that. The lows from yesterday at 6495 are the support for today if 6520 breaks, and we also have the bottom of the 30min channel at 6490. Todays pivot is 6529 which wasn’t much resistance on that overnight rise, but might hold as support on this dip back from 6545 (which has started while writing this). Generally, despite all the headlines and bearish press around, I think a rise is on the cards.

Good morning. Hope you had a good weekend. That was quite a sell off on Friday from the 6685 level that we rose to first thing, the main reason for the sell off was that once again I was doing a seminar that day. Seems that every time I do a seminar the market drops that day (bear that in mind!). The ASX200 Australia had a family positive session today so we may well see the same today and have a little bit of a bouche from the 6550 area as we have the 10 day Bianca support here, as well as the bottom of the 20 day Raff. That said, the moving averages are bearish to start with on the 10min and 30min, so the bulls will need to be quick out the blocks to make that happen.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its worst week since January, as investors awaited data on China amid a selloff in commodities.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.4 percent to 141.95 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo after the Dow slumped 2.9 percent last week. China reports on industrial company profits Monday, providing further clues on the slowdown in Asia’s largest economy. Gold is trading near a five-year low and oil is in a bear market amid concern raw material supplies are outpacing demand. In the U.S., data are due on durable and capital goods orders, with investors looking to this week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve to gauge the timing for higher interest rates.

“Share markets are likely to remain volatile as we are still going through a seasonally weak period of the year for shares,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based global strategist at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which oversees A$160.5 billion ($117 billion). “Uncertainties remain regarding Chinese economic growth and a likely Fed interest rate hike lies ahead for later this year.”

Japan’s Topix index fell 0.7 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index dropped 0.5 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.2 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slipped 0.4 percent.

Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index sank 0.7 percent in most recent trading, with contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, a gauge of mainland Chinese stocks listed in the city, down 1.1 percent. Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index, which tracks the largest Chinese companies, lost 0.8 percent and CSI 300 Index contracts declined 3 percent in Friday trade.

S&P 500 e-mini futures were little changed on Monday. The underlying equity gauge lost 1.1 percent on Friday. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

We are on 2 daily supports at the 6550 area, the 10 day Bianca and the 20 day Raff so we may see a bounce from here, firstly towards the daily pivot at 6592, then the 200ema area at 6660. As such I think an initial long will be a decent play, especially if we follow the ASX’s lead which has had a fairly bullish session. After Friday’s sell off I wouldn’t be surprised if the bears take a bit of a breather as the Dax and S&P are also near the bottom of the daily Bianca channels. Unfortunately the bears managed to break through that 2100 S&P level in the end, though it put up a brave fight on Thursday night with a bounce to 2110. Back to the FTSE and if the 6550 level breaks first thing then the next supports to watch for are 6526 where we have a Fib and a PRT line, then 6457 for a daily PRT line, with 6432 below that for 30min support. Certainly going to be an interesting open to see who goes for it first – bulls or bears.

Good morning. Fairly bearish day in the end yesterday, though a bounce on the S&P at the close from the 2100 area I was looking for might be gaining some traction. Will find out today! We are also at the bottom of the 10 day Bianca at 6624 so will be interesting to see if these levels hold.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index extending its weekly decline, as the commodities rout deepened with oil entering a bear market.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2 percent to 143.38 as of 9:11 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge is headed for a 0.9 percent decline this week as global equities traced losses on commodity markets, where concern over supply gluts sent gold to industrial metals and oil tumbling. Adding to commodity investors’ pain is the resurgent dollar, with focus shifting to next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting amid buoyant economic data. U.S. stocks fell for a third day as earnings results from 3M Co. and Caterpillar Inc. disappointed.

“With the U.S. dollar likely to keep rising as the Fed prepares to raise rates, there’s still some sort of weakness to come in the commodity space,” Angus Gluskie, managing director at White Funds Management Pty in Sydney, who oversees $550 million, said by phone. “The earnings outlook in the U.S. is also somewhat subdued as a result of the strong U.S. dollar. We’re not likely to see a massive rally in the next few months.”

Japan’s Topix index slid 0.2 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index dropped 0.7 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slipped 0.1 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to open.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose for a sixth day on Thursday, climbing 2.4 percent and sending the benchmark index to its longest stretch of gains since May, as unprecedented government intervention to support equities took root. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland shares traded in Hong Kong advanced 0.9 percent.

China Manufacturing
A gauge of Chinese manufacturing due Friday may confirm the sector contracted for a fifth straight month in July.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.1 percent. The U.S. equity benchmark index retreated 0.6 percent on Thursday.

The earnings season has been spotty for U.S. companies so far, with sluggish demand overseas damping returns for some multinational companies. Disappointing results from Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. earlier in the week sparked a selloff in technology shares. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

6624 is the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel and has held so far though there is a decent 30min channel also in play, with support at 6610 (along with a fib level here) and resistance at the 6655 area. The moving averages are bearish to start with and the T3 coral line is also showing resistance at 6640 initially which might scupper any early rises. I have put in a dip to 6610 with the arrows but I do feel about 50% sure that 6624 is going to hold, especially with the S&P bouncing off the 2100 level to 2106 this morning. The bulls will need to break 6634 first thing for 6624 to hold.Generally feeling a bit bullish today, though if 6610 and 2100 on the S&P break then I think we will head down to 6550 and 2090.

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