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Good morning. It was a mainly quiet day on the FT100 on Friday with Wall Street having a shortened day of trading. The 6350 long ran up for a few points, whilst the Dax was the best performer for the trade plan, playing out as predicted rising to 11350 then falling back. The only news which moved the market was some weak China economic data overnight and a fall on the Shanghai index due to some broker irregularities. This and a negative announcement from Anglo American had a knock-on effect on the commodity sector which fell around 4%.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell after Chinese shares posted the biggest one-day selloff in three months. Material and consumer-staple shares led losses on the benchmark index at the start of a pivotal week for the region’s markets.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.3 percent to 132.82 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo, headed for a monthly loss of 1.2 percent, its sixth such decline in seven months. This week brings a decision by the European Central Bank and the last reading on U.S. jobs before the Federal Reserve decides on whether to raise interest rates in December. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 5.5 percent on Friday, its largest retreat since the depths of a market rout in August, as regulators clamped down on brokerages.

“The main event is the ECB moving on Thursday and the U.S. non-farm payrolls on Friday,” said Mark Matthews, head of Asia research and a managing director of Bank Julius Baer & Co. in Singapore. Friday’s move in Chinese markets was “a positive because they were investigating brokers, which is a sign they don’t want another bubble to form, which was happening as it was up about 25 percent just in the last couple of months. It was oversold on Friday and I would expect it to bounce today.”

Japan’s Topix index lost 0.3 percent. Data Monday showed a preliminary reading for industrial production rose less than economists estimated in October compared with the previous month, while retail sales climbed more than they had expected.

Regional Gauges
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.1 percent. Dick Smith Holdings Ltd. plunged 47 percent in Sydney after the electronics retailer said it sees a A$60 million ($43 million) writedown and abandoned its profit forecast.

New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index increased 0.4 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.8 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.3 percent in most recent trading, while contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index slid 0.2 percent.

China’s securities regulator is investigating Citic Securities Co., Haitong Securities Co. and Guosen Securities Co. over alleged breaches of rules on margin and short-selling contracts. Shares of Chinese brokerages led the decline on Friday.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.2 percent after the underlying gauge climbed 0.1 percent on Friday in a shortened session. As investors await payrolls figures for November, traders are now pricing in a 72 percent chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December.

ECB Meeting
European policy makers meet Dec. 3 to discuss monetary policy and what the ECB can do to prop up sluggish inflation within the region. The central bank is considering cutting its deposit rate further below zero and adding to its program of quantitative easing.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde and some two dozen officials on the fund’s executive board gather Monday in Washington to decide whether to grant China’s yuan status as a reserve currency by adding it to the fund’s Special Drawing Rights basket. While Lagarde has already announced that fund staff had recommended the yuan be included and that she supported the finding, the IMF is likely to give more details on how it arrived at the decision.

This week also sees a policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia, while members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will gather in Vienna. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

I am feeling a little bearish this morning looking at the charts, with a decline from the 6380 level towards the 6315 area looking distinctly possible. We have the daily pivot at 6369, as well as the hull ma (2hour) showing resistance at 6377. A short around this area first thing this morning could set the tone for the day, especially as Asia stocks have fallen during Mondays session. The ASX200 (Australia) had a little rise initially then fell back also. I think the FTSE will follow the same pattern today. However, if not and the bulls manage to break the 6380 area of resistance then a rise towards the top of the Bianca channels at 6450 is possible. We have an ECB meeting on 3rd December which may yield further monetary stimulus, so might see some more bullishness around then in anticipation of that. 6345 area is going to be initial support today, as that was Fridays low that we bounced off, the bottom of a rising 30min channel and the 200ema on the 30min there also.Therefore the bears, if they show up first thing, will be keen to break through this strong area of support to target the 6315 level. Below 6300 and there is quite a lot of fresh air till 6200 and 6140 so the bulls will be keen to defend this area.

Dax Analysis

Dax Analysis

Dax Analysis

Just testing the pivot at 11276, with a 30min channel support below that at 11255. If that breaks then a decline to S1 at 11193 looks likely. Also looks bearish really, dropping off the 20 day Bianca at 11342 overnight.

LONG 11255, stop 11240, target 11350
SHORT 11350, stop 11377, target 11280 or lower

Good morning. Am now back in the UK after travelling back yesterday, probably a good day to choose in the end with the US in Thanksgiving holiday mode. The FTSE100 ground up slowly through the day to close near its highs, and nudge the 6400 level during the session. The two main supports were a rally in base metal prices (after falling to multi-year lows) and expectations of aggressive European Central Bank (ECB) action next week. US markets were closed so the thin trade exaggerated today’s move. The main sector to benefit today was commodities on the back of metal price rises.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks advanced, with a regional gauge reversing its weekly drop, as a rebound in metals spurred gains for materials shares and investors awaited a report on China’s industrial profits.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent to 134.60 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, with materials and telecommunication shares leading gains. The measure is poised to close the week little changed. Industrial metals surged Thursday after people familiar with the matter said China is stepping up its efforts to support the domestic industry, with the largest copper and nickel suppliers planning to meet this week to weigh their response to the slump in prices. Financial markets in the U.S. were closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

“With regards to China, our sense is that there are still significant risks to the global economy but on the other side, that they’ve got the policy ammunition to dampen that risk,” said Chris Green, director of economics and strategy in Auckland at First NZ Capital Group Ltd.

Japan’s Topix index added 0.1 percent. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 0.2 percent to 19,983.66, closing in on 20,000 for the first time since August. The nation’s consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.1 percent in October from a year earlier, in line with economists’ estimates, according to a report released before the stock market opened Friday. A measure of inflation that also excludes energy rose 0.7 percent. The jobless rate fell to 3.1 percent, the lowest since 1995.

South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.4 percent, while New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index was little changed. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.4 percent in most recent trading, while contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index rose 0.3 percent.

China Data
China is due to publish figures on October industrial profits, which slipped 0.1 percent in September from a year earlier. Citic Securities Co. is being investigated by the market regulator because it allegedly violated rules on the supervision and administration of securities firms, the nation’s largest brokerage said in an exchange filing Thursday. Some of the firm’s top executives have already been placed under investigation.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.3 percent from Wednesday’s close. U.S. equity markets reopen Friday for a shortened trading day. Traders are now pricing in a 72 percent probability that the Federal Reserve will increase borrowing costs at its December meeting.

Next week sees policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and European Central Bank, before the U.S. reports payrolls figures for November. The International Monetary Fund’s board meets on whether to grant the yuan reserve-currency status, and members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will gather in Vienna.

“Traders still need to take into consideration that the investment landscape could change significantly next week,” said Chris Weston, the chief markets strategist at IG Ltd., in an emailed note. “Moves in the U.S. dollar hold the key for all risk assets.” [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

We have dropped back a bit from the 6400 level since yesterdays close, with todays emphasis on Black Friday and the retail sector. Its also the day after Thanksgiving in the US which can often see a rise during the US session (share tips discussed over turkey?!). The pivot at 6373 didn’t act as much support overnight, so I think a decline towards the 6350 area where we have the bottom of the 30min channel and the 200ema (30min) at 6340. So, for today I think a decline then a rise towards the pivot at 6373, and possibly higher. However, if the 6350 level breaks then 6305 looks likely, so flip to short on a break of that. We also have the 10 day Bianca at 6310 so worth a long at this level.

Good morning. It was another volatile day with the markets moving sharply down on geopolitical tensions following the downing of a Russian warplane near the Syrian border. Still, it meant that the 6295 short came good quickly, closing out at 6260 a few minutes after the open. The 6220 support area held during the later stages of the day and there was an afternoon rally on stronger than expected US economic data pushing the FT100 back up towards the 6300 level. The travel sector was the hardest hit following a U.S. travel warning, while oils were strong on oil supply concerns in the Middle East on mounting tensions.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, dragged lower by Japanese shares as the yen gained after Turkey downed a Russian warplane, fueling demand for haven assets.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1 percent to 134.37 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.5 percent after the yen rose 0.3 percent against the dollar on Tuesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the shooting down of his country’s plane by Turkish forces near their border with northeastern Syria would have “serious consequences.” The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 1.2 percent on Tuesday.

The incident added “to a growing sense of geopolitical unease that has built up since the attacks in Paris,” said Jasper Lawler, a London-based market analyst at CMC Markets Plc.

While European stocks sold off on the warplane news, the impact was more limited in the U.S. as political analysts in Russia and Europe said a major escalation seems unlikely given the risks associated with any conflict between Russia and Turkey, a NATO member. The downing of the plane comes as Brussels remains on the highest-level terror alert amid what officials have called credible terrorist threats and after the U.S. State Department issued a global alert for Americans.

The Asia Pacific gauge is down 2.5 percent this year, poised for its first back-to-back annual declines since 2002 as investors assess the extent of China’s economic slowdown amid preparations by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as early as next month.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.1 percent on Wednesday as consumer firms declined while energy and materials producers rallied after a two-day slide. South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed and New Zealand’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent.

Futures the FTSE China A50 Index added 0.2 percent in most recent trading. China has canceled a rule requiring brokerages to hold daily net long positions in their proprietary trading accounts as the nation’s stock market stabilizes following its summer slump, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent. The S&P 500 closed 0.1 percent higher on Tuesday. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Today’s pivot is 6280 and we have a rising positive trend line (coral) on the 30min at 6275, so a long around this level might well be worth a go. There is a rising channel on the 30min chart with support at 6250 and resistance at 6350. We have a fairly small dividend today of 2.8 points so unlikely to see much buying at the close from he divi hunters today. If the bulls do get the rise from the pivot then 6315 is the first level of resistance that they will need to break. With all the turmoil in the world at the moment the indices are holding up pretty well! If the bulls do play ball today then the top of the 20 day Bianca at 6363 looks worth a short as that would roughly tally with the top of that 30min channel, and also R1 at 6340. On the flip side, if we dip down to 6220 again then this might well be worth a long for a double bottom bounce.

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