Good morning. If you wanted to take a day off to enjoy the warm weather today is a good day to do it. The US is closed for Independence Day and we are going into what could be a lively weekend with a possible Greek referendum, that at the moment is too close to call one way or the other. So much so that IG and other workers have increased their margin requirements substantially for the expected increase in volatility. Would be a good weaken to not hold any position over unless you fancy the risk.

Greece (from Bloomberg)
“People will just wait and see what happens after the referendum,” said Benedict Goette, founder of asset-management firm Compass Capital AG in Zurich. “The dynamics are still difficult for the market. There’s another turn every other day, a new rumor, a new leaked document.”

A measure of expected stock volatility was near a three-year high reached this week. A survey showed more Greeks are going against the government’s call to vote against creditors’ demands. The nation is now living with capital controls and has shut banks and its stock market after its euro-area financial-aid package expired and it missed a payment to the International Monetary Fund. Further bailout negotiations would have to wait until after the referendum.

U.S. Jobs
European equities first remained little changed after the U.S. payrolls report showed employers added 223,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to a seven-year low of 5.3 percent. Then, as the dollar weakened against the euro, the Stoxx 600 drifted lower. [Ref]

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fluctuated, with the regional benchmark gauge set for a weekly decline, as investors awaited Greece’s referendum and weighed U.S. jobs data.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent to 147.08 as of 9:20 a.m. in Tokyo after falling as much as 0.1 percent. The measure is headed for a 0.5 percent decline this week. The monthly U.S labor report indicated job creation advanced in June while pay stagnated and the size of the workforce receded. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ended the shortened week down 1.2 percent, the biggest weekly loss since March, after closing little changed Thursday.

“I don’t think the U.S. labor market is getting worse, but it’s not getting better either,” said Nobuhiko Kuramochi, head of investment information at Mizuho Securities Co. “It’s not a reason for the Federal Reserve to hurry into raising interest rates. Polls on the Greek vote show that the results are in the balance. It’s difficult for investors to move.”

Markets across Asia will on Monday be the first to react to the result of Greece’s vote. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is calling for a rejection of creditors’ demands, and polls suggest it’s too close to call. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said he’ll quit if voters back austerity.

Two days after Greece missed a payment to the International Monetary Fund, the Washington-based global lender of last resort said the country needs at least a further 36 billion euros ($39.9 billion) from the euro region over the next three years and easier terms to make the debt sustainable.

Jobs Report
U.S. employers added 223,000 jobs in June following a 254,000 increase in the previous month that was less than previously estimated, Labor Department figures showed Thursday. The jobless rate fell to a seven-year low of 5.3 percent as more people left the labor force.

Earnings at private employers held at $24.95 an hour in June on average and rose 2 percent over the past 12 months, matching the mean since the current expansion began six years ago. Wages had increased 2.3 percent in the year ended in May. The participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, decreased to 62.6 percent, the lowest level since October 1977.

Japan’s Topix index gained 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.5 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index added 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.1 percent.

Futures on the Hang Seng Index slipped 0.1 percent and contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 0.3 percent in most recent trading. Contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index lost 0.7 percent in Singapore, indicating another day of losses in a stock market poised to be the world’s worst performer this week. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Its a hard one to call today but I have gone for an initial rise to 6650 where we have the top of the 10 day Raff and the first of the fib resistance lines, as well as yesterday high. A dip back towards the pivot at 6618 and possibly even the bottom of that rising 30min channel slightly lower at 6605 before another rise. I am not sure we will see 6728 but if we do then that will be a good shorting area as we have the top of the 10 day Bianca and also the 25ema on daily there. At the moment the polls show the referendum split down the middle so a tough one to call, but then we all know what polls are like! FTSE is cautiously bullish first thing for me again, but will need to see what it does at 6650. A break below that 30min channel will then lead to next support at 6592 then 6548. Might be worth a brave long here as we also have S2 at this level. Pretty much all of today is going to be focussed on the Eurozone and Greece and what may or may not happen. The 30min channel looks a good one to use for trades initially.

Good morning. Well we got the rise towards 6650 yesterday but unfortunately it didn’t dip down to the 6546 order level for the ideal long entry. Was just a case of hopping on and riding it up. It stalled at about 6640 as profit was banked and more uncertainty over Greece. I saw that IG have now also raised their margin requirements (following Intertrader last week) from Friday for trades Friday afternoon and over the weekend – so they are expecting increased volatility then. The US is closed tomorrow so we have the NFP figure being released today at 13:30.

Greece – latest
European stocks advanced amid investor optimism that Greece and its creditors can work out a bailout deal and keep the Mediterranean nation in the euro area.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras signaled he’s prepared to compromise on the starting point for talks. Shares trimmed gains after he reiterated his call for voters to reject austerity measures in Sunday’s referendum.

Greece has already missed a $1.7-billion payment to the International Monetary Fund, after previous proposals to creditors were rebuffed.

“It seems they are on their way towards some type of a deal,” said Otto Waser, chief investment officer at R&A Research & Asset Management AG in Zurich. “It’s a first step, and if they decide there is room for negotiation, the markets will stay up. One percent of the advance is just a rebound from previous days’ losses and the rest because of this new proposal. Ultimately, Greece will stay in the euro.”

Three days of capital controls, rationing pensions and the expiry of its bailout pushed the Greek government to say it’s willing to accept creditors’ latest offer as a basis for compromise. Sunday’s referendum remains a stumbling block, along with disagreements over pensions, spending and taxes. Tsipras called for voters to reject austerity measures to help strengthen the government’s negotiating position. [Ref]

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose for a third day, following gains in Europe and America, with a weaker yen buoying equities in Tokyo as investors awaited developments in Greece and U.S. jobs data.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1 percent to 146.69 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index advanced 1 percent after the yen slid 0.5 percent Wednesday. Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index gained 3.3 percent after Chinese securities regulators relaxed margin-trading rules and cut equity-transaction fees in their latest attempts to prevent its bear market from deepening.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.7 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 1.5 percent after two days of declines as Greece signaled it was ready to compromise on ending a standoff over bailout aid. The bid was rejected by euro-area leaders, who have said they won’t hold talks until after Sunday’s referendum on creditors’ demands.

“There has to be a negotiated deal there and I think the market believes there will be at the end of the day despite the drama,” Michael Cuggino, a fund manager at Pacific Heights Asset Management LLC in San Francisco, told Bloomberg TV. “Corporate earnings in the second quarter along with the labor data will give us an indication as to what we’re going to see going forward.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed and South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index advanced 0.2 percent. Hong Kong’s market reopens Thursday after a holiday.

China Futures
FTSE China A50 Index futures trading in Singapore gained after the China Securities Regulatory Commission said it will no longer require brokerages to force the sale of stock held by clients with insufficient collateral, and will allow “reasonable rollover” in margin trading. China’s two bourses will reduce the fees by 30 percent starting Aug. 1, the Shanghai Stock Exchange said.

Chinese stocks have been on a rollercoaster over the last two weeks with investors torn between hefty valuations and the government’s efforts to prop up the market.

In the U.S., companies added 237,000 workers in June, the most in six months, data from Automatic Data Processing Inc. showed Wednesday. A separate report showed manufacturing expanded in June at the fastest pace in five months, indicating domestic demand is allowing American factories to withstand sluggish overseas economies.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 were little changed on Thursday. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook & Analysis

FTSE 100 Prediction and analysis

FTSE 100 Prediction and analysis

I’m feeling a little bit bullish to start off with today, and think that we may well get a rise from the 6581 level. There hasn’t been much bearishness overnight (and we have had a pretty positive ASX200 Australia session) and also since the 30min chart rolled over to bearishness at 8pm last night we have only dropped 10 or so, whereas I would usually expect a bigger reaction from that. The pivot today is 6586 so we are just on that as initial resistance, but I think we are going to head up to 6626 where we have the 200ema on the 30min, with the 25ema on the daily at 6734 above that for a bigger picture resistance level. There is the the top of that rising 30min channel at 6666 first so might be worth a short there with a tight stop.

All that said, if the 6581 level breaks then I think we will likely see the bottom of the 20 day Bianca channel at 6516 and if it gets really bearish the bottom of the 10 day at 6446. We are not out of the woods yet with regards to resolving the Greece situation and I am still watching the S&P for a rise to 2095 before more downside. So cautiously bullish for today.

Good morning. So Greece didn’t make the payment in the end and have defaulted on €1.6bn debt, and the FTSE rose from that 6500 low. The Greeks requested a 2-year bailout package but that was denied by the Germans. Its getting very tedious and will be a relief when its sorted one way or the other really. There is a 1.7 divi to be applied today. Also, NFP will be released tomorrow in the US as they are closed on Friday for Independence Day holidays.

Greece – overview of where we are now
European leaders are waiting for signs that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is ready to compromise as his country buckles under capital controls and fails to make its International Monetary Fund payment.

With Greek society feeling the pain of rationed bank withdrawals and pensions, the government is looking for a way out of economic ruin after a bailout expired and the country joined delinquent Sudan and Zimbabwe in being in arrears to the global lender of last resort.

An 11th-hour request for a new two-year rescue package to tide over a ravaged economy was sternly dismissed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. With Greece’s stay in the euro club at stake, finance ministers in the 19-nation bloc are scrambling for a solution to pull Greece away from the precipice after more than five years of crisis fighting and two bailouts.

“People are just completely fed up,” said Andrea Montanino, a former IMF executive board member who now heads the global economics program at the Atlantic Council in Washington.

While Tsipras has framed the July 5 referendum on budget cuts to be a vote against austerity, economists and policy makers view it as a decision on remaining in the euro. The outcome could determine whether the European Central Bank pulls a financial lifeline keeping the economy on life support.

Merkel said there was “absolutely nothing” to talk about before Sunday.

Still Talking?
Nevertheless, there are tentative signs of a thaw as euro-area finance ministers decide to take up Greece’s new aid bid for the second time at 11:30 a.m. Brussels time Wednesday. At first glance, a plan devoid of any economic-reform measures appeared to be a non-starter, according to three officials with knowledge of the first call on the proposal that took place Tuesday.

“The request from Greece appears designed to keep the region somewhat off-balance, and to create the impression that Tsipras is searching for an imaginative solution,” said Malcolm Barr, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in London. “Any deal struck at this stage is going to be on the Eurogroup’s terms.”

In an effort to give talks traction, Greece has agreed to offer more information and said it might change its referendum terms and recommendation, according to an official speaking on condition of anonymity.

‘Little Choice’
“With no fundamental change in the institutions’ offer, Tsipras will have little choice than to maintain his support for a ‘No’ vote, as he announced last Friday,” analysts at Barclays wrote in a note to investors. “This has become even more important, since he publicly declared that he would resign in case of a ‘Yes’ vote. The referendum is thus now about euro membership and Tsipras’s future.”

In Washington, the IMF is digesting what is the biggest missed payment since the institution was created during World War II. Its board will decide whether to grant a Greek request for an extension, something Montanino doesn’t think is likely.

For now, at least, markets suggest investors are confident policy-makers are containing the damage. The euro is trading at $1.114, about the same as before negotiations collapsed on June 26. Bonds rose on Tuesday in Spain, Portugal and Italy, which sold 6.8 billion euros ($7.6 billion) of debt on Tuesday. In Asian trading Wednesday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained for a second day, adding 0.4 percent at 12:30 p.m. in Hong Kong.

Back in Greece — where citizens are limited to 60 euros ($67) a day of withdrawals — the stress of living under financial quarantine is beginning to show. Two pensioners came to blows on a bus returning from the beach to Athens Tuesday morning over who is to blame for the crisis. [Ref]

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, after the regional benchmark gauge posted its biggest monthly drop since September, as energy and materials shares led gains.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.1 percent to 146.38 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure slid 3.4 percent in June, leaving it little changed for the quarter, as Chinese equities in Hong Kong slumped. The city’s stock market is closed Wednesday for a holiday.

An official report on China’s manufacturing industry for June will show the quickest expansion since October, while a private factory gauge will signal a fourth month of contraction, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg before data Wednesday. Greece missed a deadline for repaying $1.7 billion to the IMF after bailout talks with its creditors imploded, with investors now awaiting a July 5 vote by its people on whether they support austerity measures.

“The extreme wariness toward Greece does seem to be fading,” said Hiroichi Nishi, a manager at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “But until the referendum, it’s like annoyingly having a tiny fish bone stuck in the back of your throat.”

Japan’s Topix index added 0.3 percent after posting a fifth straight quarterly gain. A survey of sentiment among the nation’s large manufacturers beat estimates. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.1 percent after capping a 7.3 percent slide from March through June, its steepest such drop since 2011. The Kospi index gained 0.1 percent in Seoul, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index rose 0.5 percent.

Chicago futures trading on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is delayed until 8:45 p.m. New York time to account for the leap second. The underlying measure rallied 0.3 percent in New York on Tuesday, following its steepest one-day slump since April 2014. The gauge slid 0.2 percent in the quarter. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook for spread betting help

FTSE 100 Prediction for spread betting help

FTSE 100 Prediction for spread betting help

I think most people are getting pretty fed up of trying to navigate and trade around Greece at the moment. That said, for today we have some support initially at the daily pivot at 6546, which may see us build on the bounce from 6500 overnight. However, below the pivot 6513 is the next support. We are then getting towards the bottom of the 2 Bianca channels at 6522 and the 10 day at 6486. I think the 6522/6513 area might hold on any initial dip. There is also a pretty wide declining channel on the 30min with resistance at 6570ish and support at 6460 and then 6410.

Im going to try a small long off the pivot initially but with a tight stop and see what happens. It will either bounce there or go to 6520. If it bounces then a break out above the 30min channel at 6570 could well reach the 200ema at 6650ish.

Good morning. Well the saga rumbles on with the latest twist seeing the Greek threaten legal action to keep them in the EU! Yesterday saw the arrows play out quite well in the end, with a rise to the 6690 area in the end, before we fell right back down below 6600. Today is the due date for the Greeks to pay the IMF as their latest loan package expires. What a situation!

Greece closed its banks and imposed capital controls after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on Friday called for a July 5 referendum on austerity measures demanded by creditors. The country’s current aid package expires Tuesday, when a deadline to pay the International Monetary Fund is also due.

“This episode showcases the structural flaws in the euro project and the limits of political will to hold it together,” said Michael Ingram, a London-based market strategist at BGC Partners. “Absent a complete capitulation from the troika, Greece will default on the IMF tomorrow and emergency liquidity assistance should be withdrawn on Wednesday. I can’t see anyone stepping in before Wednesday ahead of ELA withdrawal.”

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said voting no in the referendum “would signal that Greece wants to distance itself from the euro zone and Europe.” Leaders of France and Germany, the region’s biggest economies, offered no further concessions.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index climbing from a three-month low, as investors watched developments in Greece’s debt crisis.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1 percent to 145.16 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo after closing Monday at the lowest since March 17. The gauge is on course to fall 4.1 percent this month and 0.8 percent for the quarter. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sank 2.1 percent on Monday, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 2.7 percent.

“All eyes this week will be on the ECB, which has the potential to announce a front-loading of its QE program,” said Matthew Sherwood, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at Perpetual Ltd. “That should help stabilize things.”

Greece plunged into financial turmoil as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras decided to put creditors’ demands to a referendum. After the nation imposed capital controls and shut its banks, the focus Tuesday shifts to whether it will default, with $1.7 billion due to the International Monetary Fund. As 12,000 people gathered in Athens’ Syntagma Square with banners that read “our lives do not belong to the creditors,” Tsipras struck a defiant tone, saying European leaders don’t have the nerve to kick Greece out of the euro.

Markets will be looking to the European Central Bank for measures to contain the crisis, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz SE and a Bloomberg View columnist, said in an interview from New York.

Regional Gauges
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index retreated 0.2 percent on the final day of the financial year. Japan’s Topix index advanced 0.1 percent, extending its gain for the second quarter to 5.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.1 percent, as did New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index.
Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.1 percent and contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 0.4 percent in most recent trading.

The Shanghai Composite Index sank 3.3 percent on Monday as signs of an exodus by leveraged investors overshadowed the central bank’s effort to revive confidence with an interest-rate cut. The measure has fallen 22 percent from a June 12 peak.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 climbed 0.2 percent today. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction for spread betting

FTSE 100 Prediction for spread betting

Going to be another interesting day thats for sure. We start with resistance at the daily pivot at 6594, and the 20 day Bianca support at 6576, a level which I think might well hold, especially if the FTSE follows the ASX (it had a dip on open then rose for most of the morning). The 10 minute chart is actually bullish to start the day with an uptrend and support at 6586, while the 30minute chart isn’t quite as strong but has a decent channel in play with support at 6491 and resistance at 6673 – will be interesting to see if we hit either of those levels, with the bulls needing to break 6599 initially to push higher. Also on the 30min we are just tracking a rising PRT line overnight with the Asia strength. I am thinking a little dip to start things off, most likely to 6576 support then hopefully another rise. Its all volatile and depends on the evolving Greek situation.

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