Good morning. I hope you had a good weekend. There is only one story today and its “no”. Greece voted against yielding to further austerity demanded by creditors, leaving Europe’s leaders to determine if the renegade nation can remain in the euro. Sixty-one percent of voters backed Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s rejection of further spending cuts and tax increases in an unprecedented referendum that’s also taken the country to the brink of financial collapse. Tsipras described the result as a “great victory”, and said Athens would return to the negotiating table on Monday with a strengthened hand. The result turns the tables on Merkel and Greece’s other creditors, who must now decide if a financial rescue of the region’s most-indebted country is still possible. It significantly raises the chances of a Greek exit from the single currency, as the country’s banks run out of cash and its economy staggers toward all-out collapse.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index set for its biggest drop in more than a year, after Greece voted to reject further austerity. Chinese shares rallied after a three-week slump.

Asahi Glass Co., which gets about 21 percent of sales from Europe, dropped 2.7 percent in Tokyo. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, slipped 2.1 percent in Sydney as copper futures headed for a second day of declines in London. China Airlines Ltd. gained 2.9 percent in Taipei after regulators increased flights to mainland China.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 2.1 percent to 143.35 as of 12:16 p.m. in Hong Kong, heading for the biggest decline since February 2014. Sixty-one percent of voters backed Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s rejection of further spending cuts and tax increases in an unprecedented referendum that’s also taken the country to the brink of financial collapse. The results mean Greece exiting the currency union is now the base scenario, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said. Japan’s Topix index sank 2 percent as the yen gained 1 percent against the euro.

European Union President Donald Tusk called a euro-area summit for Tuesday. While the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is due to talk on Monday on whether to keep supporting Greece’s lenders, it’ll probably be reluctant to preempt such a meeting.

“There’s a whole range of unpredictable outcomes,” Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners Ltd. in Wellington, which manages about $7.2 billion, said by phone. “It’s surprising that the ‘no’ vote won so convincingly, certainly more decisively than the polls had suggested. This puts us in limbo for so much longer, and it’s very negative for risk sentiment especially when you add in what we’re seeing with developments out of China.”

China Measures
The Shanghai Composite Index gained 2.2 percent after China suspended initial public offerings and brokerages pledged to buy shares in weekend measures aimed at halting the market rout. Mainland shares have erased $3.2 trillion of value after posting their biggest three-week slump since 1992 on concern leveraged traders are liquidating bets after valuations exceeded levels seen during China’s stock-market bubble of 2007.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 1.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index sank 1.8 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex slid 0.8 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slipped 1 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell 0.8 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index tumbled 3.2 percent.

West Texas Intermediate crude dropped as much as 4.4 percent to as low as $54.44 a barrel, headed for its lowest close in almost three months. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Well yet again we open Monday morning significantly gapped down from Fridays close, a top left at 6593 this time. We didn’t close the previous gap last week though at 6757. We are not far off the bottom of the Bianca 10 day channel for support at 6413 though today and a level that could well be worth a very brave long! The US is back today after having Friday off so will be interesting to see how much notice they take of the Greece news. They don’t usually like to miss too much of a fall so we could get a bounce this afternoon, pulled up by them. With such a large gap down most technical levels become pretty irrelevant, but the daily pivot is at 6601 for resistance if it were to add 150 points today. Doubtful though! While writing this the Greek Finance minister has just resigned. Probably forced out so that a deal can be done and talks advanced.

In light of that I think it helps the bulls actually, and the market has just risen 15 as that news broke. Its going to be a fast moving day i think as stories break. Generally, though we have a bit more clarity now having had the referendum, so just sort out the money side now or leave the Euro. The 10min chart is the one I have used for the arrows today as there is a fairly decent channel in play initially, with the bottom coinciding with a fib pivot at 6449. All moving averages across the board are bearish though to start so maybe a bit of a dead cat bounce similar to last Monday.

Good morning. If you wanted to take a day off to enjoy the warm weather today is a good day to do it. The US is closed for Independence Day and we are going into what could be a lively weekend with a possible Greek referendum, that at the moment is too close to call one way or the other. So much so that IG and other workers have increased their margin requirements substantially for the expected increase in volatility. Would be a good weaken to not hold any position over unless you fancy the risk.

Greece (from Bloomberg)
“People will just wait and see what happens after the referendum,” said Benedict Goette, founder of asset-management firm Compass Capital AG in Zurich. “The dynamics are still difficult for the market. There’s another turn every other day, a new rumor, a new leaked document.”

A measure of expected stock volatility was near a three-year high reached this week. A survey showed more Greeks are going against the government’s call to vote against creditors’ demands. The nation is now living with capital controls and has shut banks and its stock market after its euro-area financial-aid package expired and it missed a payment to the International Monetary Fund. Further bailout negotiations would have to wait until after the referendum.

U.S. Jobs
European equities first remained little changed after the U.S. payrolls report showed employers added 223,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to a seven-year low of 5.3 percent. Then, as the dollar weakened against the euro, the Stoxx 600 drifted lower. [Ref]

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fluctuated, with the regional benchmark gauge set for a weekly decline, as investors awaited Greece’s referendum and weighed U.S. jobs data.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent to 147.08 as of 9:20 a.m. in Tokyo after falling as much as 0.1 percent. The measure is headed for a 0.5 percent decline this week. The monthly U.S labor report indicated job creation advanced in June while pay stagnated and the size of the workforce receded. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ended the shortened week down 1.2 percent, the biggest weekly loss since March, after closing little changed Thursday.

“I don’t think the U.S. labor market is getting worse, but it’s not getting better either,” said Nobuhiko Kuramochi, head of investment information at Mizuho Securities Co. “It’s not a reason for the Federal Reserve to hurry into raising interest rates. Polls on the Greek vote show that the results are in the balance. It’s difficult for investors to move.”

Markets across Asia will on Monday be the first to react to the result of Greece’s vote. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is calling for a rejection of creditors’ demands, and polls suggest it’s too close to call. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said he’ll quit if voters back austerity.

Two days after Greece missed a payment to the International Monetary Fund, the Washington-based global lender of last resort said the country needs at least a further 36 billion euros ($39.9 billion) from the euro region over the next three years and easier terms to make the debt sustainable.

Jobs Report
U.S. employers added 223,000 jobs in June following a 254,000 increase in the previous month that was less than previously estimated, Labor Department figures showed Thursday. The jobless rate fell to a seven-year low of 5.3 percent as more people left the labor force.

Earnings at private employers held at $24.95 an hour in June on average and rose 2 percent over the past 12 months, matching the mean since the current expansion began six years ago. Wages had increased 2.3 percent in the year ended in May. The participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, decreased to 62.6 percent, the lowest level since October 1977.

Japan’s Topix index gained 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.5 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index added 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.1 percent.

Futures on the Hang Seng Index slipped 0.1 percent and contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 0.3 percent in most recent trading. Contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index lost 0.7 percent in Singapore, indicating another day of losses in a stock market poised to be the world’s worst performer this week. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Its a hard one to call today but I have gone for an initial rise to 6650 where we have the top of the 10 day Raff and the first of the fib resistance lines, as well as yesterday high. A dip back towards the pivot at 6618 and possibly even the bottom of that rising 30min channel slightly lower at 6605 before another rise. I am not sure we will see 6728 but if we do then that will be a good shorting area as we have the top of the 10 day Bianca and also the 25ema on daily there. At the moment the polls show the referendum split down the middle so a tough one to call, but then we all know what polls are like! FTSE is cautiously bullish first thing for me again, but will need to see what it does at 6650. A break below that 30min channel will then lead to next support at 6592 then 6548. Might be worth a brave long here as we also have S2 at this level. Pretty much all of today is going to be focussed on the Eurozone and Greece and what may or may not happen. The 30min channel looks a good one to use for trades initially.

Good morning. Well we got the rise towards 6650 yesterday but unfortunately it didn’t dip down to the 6546 order level for the ideal long entry. Was just a case of hopping on and riding it up. It stalled at about 6640 as profit was banked and more uncertainty over Greece. I saw that IG have now also raised their margin requirements (following Intertrader last week) from Friday for trades Friday afternoon and over the weekend – so they are expecting increased volatility then. The US is closed tomorrow so we have the NFP figure being released today at 13:30.

Greece – latest
European stocks advanced amid investor optimism that Greece and its creditors can work out a bailout deal and keep the Mediterranean nation in the euro area.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras signaled he’s prepared to compromise on the starting point for talks. Shares trimmed gains after he reiterated his call for voters to reject austerity measures in Sunday’s referendum.

Greece has already missed a $1.7-billion payment to the International Monetary Fund, after previous proposals to creditors were rebuffed.

“It seems they are on their way towards some type of a deal,” said Otto Waser, chief investment officer at R&A Research & Asset Management AG in Zurich. “It’s a first step, and if they decide there is room for negotiation, the markets will stay up. One percent of the advance is just a rebound from previous days’ losses and the rest because of this new proposal. Ultimately, Greece will stay in the euro.”

Three days of capital controls, rationing pensions and the expiry of its bailout pushed the Greek government to say it’s willing to accept creditors’ latest offer as a basis for compromise. Sunday’s referendum remains a stumbling block, along with disagreements over pensions, spending and taxes. Tsipras called for voters to reject austerity measures to help strengthen the government’s negotiating position. [Ref]

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose for a third day, following gains in Europe and America, with a weaker yen buoying equities in Tokyo as investors awaited developments in Greece and U.S. jobs data.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1 percent to 146.69 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index advanced 1 percent after the yen slid 0.5 percent Wednesday. Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index gained 3.3 percent after Chinese securities regulators relaxed margin-trading rules and cut equity-transaction fees in their latest attempts to prevent its bear market from deepening.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.7 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 1.5 percent after two days of declines as Greece signaled it was ready to compromise on ending a standoff over bailout aid. The bid was rejected by euro-area leaders, who have said they won’t hold talks until after Sunday’s referendum on creditors’ demands.

“There has to be a negotiated deal there and I think the market believes there will be at the end of the day despite the drama,” Michael Cuggino, a fund manager at Pacific Heights Asset Management LLC in San Francisco, told Bloomberg TV. “Corporate earnings in the second quarter along with the labor data will give us an indication as to what we’re going to see going forward.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed and South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index advanced 0.2 percent. Hong Kong’s market reopens Thursday after a holiday.

China Futures
FTSE China A50 Index futures trading in Singapore gained after the China Securities Regulatory Commission said it will no longer require brokerages to force the sale of stock held by clients with insufficient collateral, and will allow “reasonable rollover” in margin trading. China’s two bourses will reduce the fees by 30 percent starting Aug. 1, the Shanghai Stock Exchange said.

Chinese stocks have been on a rollercoaster over the last two weeks with investors torn between hefty valuations and the government’s efforts to prop up the market.

In the U.S., companies added 237,000 workers in June, the most in six months, data from Automatic Data Processing Inc. showed Wednesday. A separate report showed manufacturing expanded in June at the fastest pace in five months, indicating domestic demand is allowing American factories to withstand sluggish overseas economies.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 were little changed on Thursday. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook & Analysis

FTSE 100 Prediction and analysis

FTSE 100 Prediction and analysis

I’m feeling a little bit bullish to start off with today, and think that we may well get a rise from the 6581 level. There hasn’t been much bearishness overnight (and we have had a pretty positive ASX200 Australia session) and also since the 30min chart rolled over to bearishness at 8pm last night we have only dropped 10 or so, whereas I would usually expect a bigger reaction from that. The pivot today is 6586 so we are just on that as initial resistance, but I think we are going to head up to 6626 where we have the 200ema on the 30min, with the 25ema on the daily at 6734 above that for a bigger picture resistance level. There is the the top of that rising 30min channel at 6666 first so might be worth a short there with a tight stop.

All that said, if the 6581 level breaks then I think we will likely see the bottom of the 20 day Bianca channel at 6516 and if it gets really bearish the bottom of the 10 day at 6446. We are not out of the woods yet with regards to resolving the Greece situation and I am still watching the S&P for a rise to 2095 before more downside. So cautiously bullish for today.

Good morning. So Greece didn’t make the payment in the end and have defaulted on €1.6bn debt, and the FTSE rose from that 6500 low. The Greeks requested a 2-year bailout package but that was denied by the Germans. Its getting very tedious and will be a relief when its sorted one way or the other really. There is a 1.7 divi to be applied today. Also, NFP will be released tomorrow in the US as they are closed on Friday for Independence Day holidays.

Greece – overview of where we are now
European leaders are waiting for signs that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is ready to compromise as his country buckles under capital controls and fails to make its International Monetary Fund payment.

With Greek society feeling the pain of rationed bank withdrawals and pensions, the government is looking for a way out of economic ruin after a bailout expired and the country joined delinquent Sudan and Zimbabwe in being in arrears to the global lender of last resort.

An 11th-hour request for a new two-year rescue package to tide over a ravaged economy was sternly dismissed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. With Greece’s stay in the euro club at stake, finance ministers in the 19-nation bloc are scrambling for a solution to pull Greece away from the precipice after more than five years of crisis fighting and two bailouts.

“People are just completely fed up,” said Andrea Montanino, a former IMF executive board member who now heads the global economics program at the Atlantic Council in Washington.

While Tsipras has framed the July 5 referendum on budget cuts to be a vote against austerity, economists and policy makers view it as a decision on remaining in the euro. The outcome could determine whether the European Central Bank pulls a financial lifeline keeping the economy on life support.

Merkel said there was “absolutely nothing” to talk about before Sunday.

Still Talking?
Nevertheless, there are tentative signs of a thaw as euro-area finance ministers decide to take up Greece’s new aid bid for the second time at 11:30 a.m. Brussels time Wednesday. At first glance, a plan devoid of any economic-reform measures appeared to be a non-starter, according to three officials with knowledge of the first call on the proposal that took place Tuesday.

“The request from Greece appears designed to keep the region somewhat off-balance, and to create the impression that Tsipras is searching for an imaginative solution,” said Malcolm Barr, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in London. “Any deal struck at this stage is going to be on the Eurogroup’s terms.”

In an effort to give talks traction, Greece has agreed to offer more information and said it might change its referendum terms and recommendation, according to an official speaking on condition of anonymity.

‘Little Choice’
“With no fundamental change in the institutions’ offer, Tsipras will have little choice than to maintain his support for a ‘No’ vote, as he announced last Friday,” analysts at Barclays wrote in a note to investors. “This has become even more important, since he publicly declared that he would resign in case of a ‘Yes’ vote. The referendum is thus now about euro membership and Tsipras’s future.”

In Washington, the IMF is digesting what is the biggest missed payment since the institution was created during World War II. Its board will decide whether to grant a Greek request for an extension, something Montanino doesn’t think is likely.

For now, at least, markets suggest investors are confident policy-makers are containing the damage. The euro is trading at $1.114, about the same as before negotiations collapsed on June 26. Bonds rose on Tuesday in Spain, Portugal and Italy, which sold 6.8 billion euros ($7.6 billion) of debt on Tuesday. In Asian trading Wednesday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained for a second day, adding 0.4 percent at 12:30 p.m. in Hong Kong.

Back in Greece — where citizens are limited to 60 euros ($67) a day of withdrawals — the stress of living under financial quarantine is beginning to show. Two pensioners came to blows on a bus returning from the beach to Athens Tuesday morning over who is to blame for the crisis. [Ref]

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, after the regional benchmark gauge posted its biggest monthly drop since September, as energy and materials shares led gains.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.1 percent to 146.38 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure slid 3.4 percent in June, leaving it little changed for the quarter, as Chinese equities in Hong Kong slumped. The city’s stock market is closed Wednesday for a holiday.

An official report on China’s manufacturing industry for June will show the quickest expansion since October, while a private factory gauge will signal a fourth month of contraction, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg before data Wednesday. Greece missed a deadline for repaying $1.7 billion to the IMF after bailout talks with its creditors imploded, with investors now awaiting a July 5 vote by its people on whether they support austerity measures.

“The extreme wariness toward Greece does seem to be fading,” said Hiroichi Nishi, a manager at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “But until the referendum, it’s like annoyingly having a tiny fish bone stuck in the back of your throat.”

Japan’s Topix index added 0.3 percent after posting a fifth straight quarterly gain. A survey of sentiment among the nation’s large manufacturers beat estimates. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.1 percent after capping a 7.3 percent slide from March through June, its steepest such drop since 2011. The Kospi index gained 0.1 percent in Seoul, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index rose 0.5 percent.

Chicago futures trading on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is delayed until 8:45 p.m. New York time to account for the leap second. The underlying measure rallied 0.3 percent in New York on Tuesday, following its steepest one-day slump since April 2014. The gauge slid 0.2 percent in the quarter. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook for spread betting help

FTSE 100 Prediction for spread betting help

FTSE 100 Prediction for spread betting help

I think most people are getting pretty fed up of trying to navigate and trade around Greece at the moment. That said, for today we have some support initially at the daily pivot at 6546, which may see us build on the bounce from 6500 overnight. However, below the pivot 6513 is the next support. We are then getting towards the bottom of the 2 Bianca channels at 6522 and the 10 day at 6486. I think the 6522/6513 area might hold on any initial dip. There is also a pretty wide declining channel on the 30min with resistance at 6570ish and support at 6460 and then 6410.

Im going to try a small long off the pivot initially but with a tight stop and see what happens. It will either bounce there or go to 6520. If it bounces then a break out above the 30min channel at 6570 could well reach the 200ema at 6650ish.

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