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Approximately where will the FTSE close 2015?

Lower than 6000
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Dax Analysis

Dax Analysis

Dax Analysis

Just testing the pivot at 11276, with a 30min channel support below that at 11255. If that breaks then a decline to S1 at 11193 looks likely. Also looks bearish really, dropping off the 20 day Bianca at 11342 overnight.

LONG 11255, stop 11240, target 11350
SHORT 11350, stop 11377, target 11280 or lower

Good morning. Am now back in the UK after travelling back yesterday, probably a good day to choose in the end with the US in Thanksgiving holiday mode. The FTSE100 ground up slowly through the day to close near its highs, and nudge the 6400 level during the session. The two main supports were a rally in base metal prices (after falling to multi-year lows) and expectations of aggressive European Central Bank (ECB) action next week. US markets were closed so the thin trade exaggerated today’s move. The main sector to benefit today was commodities on the back of metal price rises.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks advanced, with a regional gauge reversing its weekly drop, as a rebound in metals spurred gains for materials shares and investors awaited a report on China’s industrial profits.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent to 134.60 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, with materials and telecommunication shares leading gains. The measure is poised to close the week little changed. Industrial metals surged Thursday after people familiar with the matter said China is stepping up its efforts to support the domestic industry, with the largest copper and nickel suppliers planning to meet this week to weigh their response to the slump in prices. Financial markets in the U.S. were closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

“With regards to China, our sense is that there are still significant risks to the global economy but on the other side, that they’ve got the policy ammunition to dampen that risk,” said Chris Green, director of economics and strategy in Auckland at First NZ Capital Group Ltd.

Japan’s Topix index added 0.1 percent. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 0.2 percent to 19,983.66, closing in on 20,000 for the first time since August. The nation’s consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.1 percent in October from a year earlier, in line with economists’ estimates, according to a report released before the stock market opened Friday. A measure of inflation that also excludes energy rose 0.7 percent. The jobless rate fell to 3.1 percent, the lowest since 1995.

South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.4 percent, while New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index was little changed. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.4 percent in most recent trading, while contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index rose 0.3 percent.

China Data
China is due to publish figures on October industrial profits, which slipped 0.1 percent in September from a year earlier. Citic Securities Co. is being investigated by the market regulator because it allegedly violated rules on the supervision and administration of securities firms, the nation’s largest brokerage said in an exchange filing Thursday. Some of the firm’s top executives have already been placed under investigation.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.3 percent from Wednesday’s close. U.S. equity markets reopen Friday for a shortened trading day. Traders are now pricing in a 72 percent probability that the Federal Reserve will increase borrowing costs at its December meeting.

Next week sees policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and European Central Bank, before the U.S. reports payrolls figures for November. The International Monetary Fund’s board meets on whether to grant the yuan reserve-currency status, and members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will gather in Vienna.

“Traders still need to take into consideration that the investment landscape could change significantly next week,” said Chris Weston, the chief markets strategist at IG Ltd., in an emailed note. “Moves in the U.S. dollar hold the key for all risk assets.” [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

We have dropped back a bit from the 6400 level since yesterdays close, with todays emphasis on Black Friday and the retail sector. Its also the day after Thanksgiving in the US which can often see a rise during the US session (share tips discussed over turkey?!). The pivot at 6373 didn’t act as much support overnight, so I think a decline towards the 6350 area where we have the bottom of the 30min channel and the 200ema (30min) at 6340. So, for today I think a decline then a rise towards the pivot at 6373, and possibly higher. However, if the 6350 level breaks then 6305 looks likely, so flip to short on a break of that. We also have the 10 day Bianca at 6310 so worth a long at this level.

Good morning. It was another volatile day with the markets moving sharply down on geopolitical tensions following the downing of a Russian warplane near the Syrian border. Still, it meant that the 6295 short came good quickly, closing out at 6260 a few minutes after the open. The 6220 support area held during the later stages of the day and there was an afternoon rally on stronger than expected US economic data pushing the FT100 back up towards the 6300 level. The travel sector was the hardest hit following a U.S. travel warning, while oils were strong on oil supply concerns in the Middle East on mounting tensions.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, dragged lower by Japanese shares as the yen gained after Turkey downed a Russian warplane, fueling demand for haven assets.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1 percent to 134.37 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.5 percent after the yen rose 0.3 percent against the dollar on Tuesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the shooting down of his country’s plane by Turkish forces near their border with northeastern Syria would have “serious consequences.” The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 1.2 percent on Tuesday.

The incident added “to a growing sense of geopolitical unease that has built up since the attacks in Paris,” said Jasper Lawler, a London-based market analyst at CMC Markets Plc.

While European stocks sold off on the warplane news, the impact was more limited in the U.S. as political analysts in Russia and Europe said a major escalation seems unlikely given the risks associated with any conflict between Russia and Turkey, a NATO member. The downing of the plane comes as Brussels remains on the highest-level terror alert amid what officials have called credible terrorist threats and after the U.S. State Department issued a global alert for Americans.

The Asia Pacific gauge is down 2.5 percent this year, poised for its first back-to-back annual declines since 2002 as investors assess the extent of China’s economic slowdown amid preparations by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as early as next month.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.1 percent on Wednesday as consumer firms declined while energy and materials producers rallied after a two-day slide. South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed and New Zealand’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent.

Futures the FTSE China A50 Index added 0.2 percent in most recent trading. China has canceled a rule requiring brokerages to hold daily net long positions in their proprietary trading accounts as the nation’s stock market stabilizes following its summer slump, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent. The S&P 500 closed 0.1 percent higher on Tuesday. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Today’s pivot is 6280 and we have a rising positive trend line (coral) on the 30min at 6275, so a long around this level might well be worth a go. There is a rising channel on the 30min chart with support at 6250 and resistance at 6350. We have a fairly small dividend today of 2.8 points so unlikely to see much buying at the close from he divi hunters today. If the bulls do get the rise from the pivot then 6315 is the first level of resistance that they will need to break. With all the turmoil in the world at the moment the indices are holding up pretty well! If the bulls do play ball today then the top of the 20 day Bianca at 6363 looks worth a short as that would roughly tally with the top of that 30min channel, and also R1 at 6340. On the flip side, if we dip down to 6220 again then this might well be worth a long for a double bottom bounce.

Good morning. It was a choppy day of trading with the FTSE100 oscillating around the 6300 level. The bias was definitely negative with commodity prices hitting their lowest levels in 13 years and the US dollar at its highest in 8 months. The Euro also fell to a 7 month low on prospect of ECB easing. In terms of sectors, commodities and supermarkets were the main losers, the latter on margin concerns which has dogged the sector for some time now. The best sector was defence on announcements of increased government spending.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell as tumbling commodity prices dragged raw-materials shares lower, with BHP Billiton Ltd. on course to close at the lowest since 2008.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1 percent to 134.16 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo, as Japanese markets opened after a holiday. Material shares led losses among the regional measure’s 10 industry groups. The increased likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this year is sending the dollar higher, making industrial metals more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. Copper fell below $4,500 a metric ton for the first time in six years and nickel touched the lowest in more than a decade. U.S. crude rose back above $42 per barrel after Saudi Arabia pledged to help stabilize markets.

“Wild gyrations in oil and another copper tumble could see further pressure on resource stocks,” said Michael McCarthy, chief markets strategist in Sydney at CMC Markets. “The rhetoric from the Fed suggests numbers would have to fall off a cliff to stop an interest-rate rise in December.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.4 percent. BHP Billiton fell 1.7 percent in Sydney, the biggest drag on the regional benchmark gauge. Rio Tinto Group lost 1.1 percent.

Regional Gauges
Japan’s Topix index slipped 0.2 percent. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index added 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed.

Markets in Hong Kong and China have yet to open. Futures on the Hang Seng Index added 0.2 percent in most recent trading, as did contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6 percent on Monday on a slump in technology companies as the securities regulator gave the green light to initial public offerings following a five-month freeze.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. The underlying gauge slipped 0.1 percent Monday as gains in consumer companies were overshadowed by a retreat in Allergan Plc and Pfizer Inc. amid their record $160 billion merger. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Certainly quite choppy at the moment and a bit directionless. The bulls failed to break the daily pivot yesterday at the 6328 area, and today the daily pivot is resistance at 6295. If the bulls are able to break through this level then a rise to 6320, and possibly 6345 looks doable, though there is a decent downtrending channel on the 10min and 30min charts at the moment. Key support on the 30min chart is at 6280, if the bears break through this (its possible as this would be the third test of the rising support line on the 30min chart) then a decline to 6220 looks possible. So, its in a pretty narrow range as I am writing this of just 15 points between decent support and resistance. I think a short off the pivot at 6295 is worth a try initially, though be easy to flip to long of the bull looks to be pushing through this level.

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