Good morning. A pretty bullish day yesterday trending in one direction, fortunately taking our long from 6220 with it. As it happened it rose all the way to the 6320 level after the bell, even managing 6340 before its dropped back a bit overnight. Not by much though! The top of the 10 day Bianca channel is 6339 so the bulls will be keen to break this level this morning to push higher but the problem with rising too far too fast is that you then get a sharp correction in the other direction, so be cautious for longs as we start to test the upper bands of the daily channels (Raff 20 day is also 6340), and we also have a daily RSI figure of 66 currently.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose for a fifth day, following gains in U.S. equities, amid speculation that global central bank policy will remain accommodative to counteract weak economic growth.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.8 percent to 128.88 as of 9 a.m. in Tokyo, extending its five-day gain to 6.4 percent. Futures traders see only a 10 percent chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its Oct. 27-28 meeting following weaker-than-expected employment growth, while 17 of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect additional easing from the Bank of Japan by the end of the month.

“Markets continue to believe that weak data will pressure central banks in Europe and Japan to provide more stimulus and will delay the U.S. Fed in its pursuit to begin withdrawing monetary stimulus,” said Matthew Sherwood, head of investment strategy at Perpetual Ltd. in Sydney, which manages about $21 billion. This “continues to have investors believe that asset prices can defy the weak growth environment.”

Japan’s Topix index rose 1.4 percent after the yen weakened 0.5 percent on Monday. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to push through structural changes to recharge Japan’s economy got a boost as negotiators reached a deal on a Pacific trade pact that would create the world’s biggest regional trade zone. The Trans-Pacific Partnership still needs to be ratified by lawmakers in the 12 member nations.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 1.2 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index climbed 0.8 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 1 percent. Mainland Chinese markets remain closed for a holiday, while Hong Kong is yet to open. Futures on the Hang Seng Index gained 1.2 percent.

U.S. Services
The pace of growth in U.S. services industries cooled last month from the best readings in a decade, a sign consumers may be taking demand down to a more sustainable level in the face of global weakness. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index declined to 56.9 in September from 59 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said Monday.

Traders see a 35 percent probability that the Fed will raise its target rate by December, down from a 58 percent likelihood seen a month ago, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan starts a two-day meeting Tuesday. Two of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect additional stimulus this week, with 15 more forecasting the central bank will ease policy at its Oct. 30 meeting.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.2 percent Tuesday. The underlying measure added 1.8 percent on Monday to cap its longest stretch of gains this year. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

My bullishness has weakened today and I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a dip down to the 6220 area from where we are as I am writing this (6320) to test the bottom of the 30min channel. Below that we have the 30min 200ema at 6180ish, along with a major PRT support line. A mentioned above I am always a bit wary when we have a few up days on the trot, especially trending ones as its like its risen too far too fast, everything becomes over extended and therefore I expect a snap back at some point – same as if it drops too far too fast. So, for today I think a short now to target at the very least the daily pivot at 6288, and possibly 6220 below that. If the bulls defend that level then a rise back to the 6300 level and a period of consolidation after the recent rises while we await the next bit of news! My 10min chart is bearish to start the day, whilst the 30min is still bullish, but with the gap between the moving averages narrowing – so early bear will more than likely lead to a cross and a bear signal.

Good morning I hope you had a good weekend. Well NFP Friday was rather wild wasn’t it – I really wasn’t expecting nearly 200 points off the 6055 level otherwise I wouldn’t have moved the stop to breakeven quite so quickly! well done those that emailed me and held for 6100 and higher. Following the poor jobs data the chances of rates rises this year diminished (as I have said all along, will be 2016 at the earliest) hence the rally in pretty much everything. For the moment the bulls are in charge.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian shares rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for its longest winning streak in almost three months, after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report reduced the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4 percent to 126.92 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, advancing for a fourth day. U.S. employers added 142,000 jobs in September, less than the lowest estimate of 96 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, figures from the Labor Department showed Friday. The report increased the likelihood that near-zero interest rates will persist into next year, keeping in place the stimulus that has underpinned the world’s biggest economy.

“Throughout this year we’ve had moments when stocks rose on an increased probability of rate increases in the U.S., but at the end of last week the market saw the probable delay as a positive,” said Shoji Hirakawa, chief equity strategist at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.2 percent. The underlying measure jumped 1.4 percent on Friday, wiping out an earlier drop of as much as 1.6 percent in its biggest intraday rebound since October 2011.

Japan’s Topix index rose 0.9 percent, and South Korea’s Kospi index increased 0.7 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index jumped 1.8 percent as commodity shares led gains. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index added 0.6 percent. Hong Kong’s equity market is yet to open, while those in mainland China remain closed for a holiday.

Participation Rate
The U.S. jobless rate held at 5.1 percent, and wage growth was little changed from the prior month. Joblessness remained low as people left the workforce, pushing the participation rate down to 62.4 percent, the lowest since October 1977.

The probability the Fed will move by its Dec. 15-16 meeting fell to 33 percent from 46 percent before the jobs data, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. The odds for the January meeting slid below 50 percent.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 1.1 percent last week. The measure slumped 15 percent in the third quarter amid concern about China’s economic slowdown and confusion over the timing of the first U.S. interest-rate increase since 2006. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

For the moment the trends are pretty firmly up, and there is a chance the Dow will be testing 16600 soon – decent resistance level here if so. I have gone for an initial dip down to the 25ema line on the 30min chart where we have some decent support and also the bottom of the channel. At the moment everything looks pretty hopeful for a rise towards 6300. I have gone for an initial dip as we have some PRT resistance at the 6246 level on the daily charts and its also the overnight high. We have broken out above the Bianca channels (10 day top is 6207 so may get a back test of that level today) and are nearly at the top of the 20 day Raff at 6268 so look around here for resistance as well. All fairly simple in terms of the plan today – go long on any initial dip to 6220.

Good morning. Bit of a slow start on the FTSE there in terms of points. The 6150 short came good, though there was a suspicious spike up to 6174 before it dropped down to the 6035 level. The long managed a few points off the support, but wasn’t quite the easy ride up I was hoping for. The 200ema at 6035 on the 30 minute chart provided good support in the evening, and the bulls are pushing to get this back above 6100 as I write. We have NFP out at 13:30 today, with the US expected to add 203K jobs in September, back above August’s 173K.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell as investors awaited a monthly government report on U.S. jobs to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.5 percent to 125.22 as of 9:16 a.m. in Tokyo. Economists expect U.S. employers to have added about 201,000 workers in September after a gain of 173,000 in August. The data will factor into the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision, due Oct. 28, as the central bank also weighs global financial-market turmoil.

The regional benchmark index’s drop Friday trimmed its advance this week to 0.1 percent with mainland Chinese markets currently shut for a week-long holiday.

“Asia is in for a bit of indigestion today,” said Angus Nicholson, a Melbourne-based market analyst at IG Ltd. “Some of the gains will be pared back as the markets position themselves ahead of the all-important U.S. non-farm payrolls number due out tonight.”

Japan’s Topix index retreated 0.6 percent. Bank of Japan officials see little need for an immediate expansion of monetary stimulus and would prefer to hold off to get a clearer picture of the economic outlook, according to people familiar with their deliberations.

Board members who gather for a policy meeting Oct. 6-7 want the opportunity to observe further economic data and developments in financial markets at home and abroad, according to the people, who asked not to be named because talks are private.

Regional Gauges
South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index was little changed. Markets in Hong Kong have yet to open.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.2 percent. The underlying gauge rose 0.2 percent in New York on Thursday, reversing a drop of as much as 1 percent.

American manufacturing barely grew in September. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 50.2, the weakest since May 2013, the Tempe, Arizona-based group reported Thursday. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

We have a bit of resistance at 6100 to start with this morning so I think we may see a dip this morning to take us down 6055 which looks like fairly decent support so worth a long here. Looking at the Dow I can see a dip and rise day for that today, with 16180ish level providing the support. If those levels hold then we could be on for a fairly decent bounce today, probably after NFP comes out at 13:30. The bulls will be keen to at least reach the top of the daily channels around the 6150 level, though with both Bianca channels there and going into the weekend we may see a pullback from there as profit is banked if that 6050 level does provide support. So, fairly simple plan today and going for a V shaped day.

Good morning. Bullish end to the quarter yesterday and those 2 shorts both got stopped out, even managing to break the top of the 10 day down channel. Beginning of the new month will see some new funds flowing ion this morning so expecting a bit of upside from that and we are still testing the top of the daily channels – both the Raffs are around this 6150 area. If the market isn’t too careful its going to rise too far too fast, get overbought and then come back down sharpish! Probably after NFP tomorrow….

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks followed U.S. shares higher, after the regional benchmark index posted its worst quarter since 2011, as investors awaited Chinese factory data.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.2 percent to 124.09 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge slumped 15 percent in the three months ended September. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.9 percent in New York Wednesday, its best rally in three weeks, paring its quarterly drop to 6.9 percent.

With almost $11 trillion erased from global shares in the past three months, investors turn to Thursday’s Chinese manufacturing reports for clues on the extent of the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. Riskier markets have been sold amid decelerating growth in China, a prolonged commodity slump and an exodus from developing-nation assets as the U.S. prepares to raise interest rates as soon as this year. With a week-long holiday in China from Thursday, money managers will then assess Friday’s U.S. payrolls report for indications on whether the job market is strong enough to withstand tightening.

“You shouldn’t be surprised if October is at least as volatile as September,” said Don Williams, Sydney-based fund manager at Platypus Asset Management Ltd. “The environment is still tough and earnings growth is hard to come by.”

China PMI
China’s statistics bureau is scheduled to release an official manufacturing index for September on Thursday. The reading will probably be 49.7, unchanged from a month earlier, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. Recent data have been weak, with a preliminary reading of a private factory gauge falling to the lowest level since the global financial crisis and industrial profits slumping the most in at least four years.

Japan’s Topix index gained 0.7 percent. The Tankan index of sentiment among large manufacturers fell to 12 in the third quarter, from 15 in the previous three months, the Bank of Japan said. Economists had expected a reading of 13. Big companies across all industries plan to boost capital expenditure by 10.9 percent this fiscal year, more than the median economist estimate of 8.7 percent.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.2 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slipped 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.2 percent.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Could be an interesting day today, especially going into NFP tomorrow and with ISM Manufacturing today in the US. We have popped above the 10 day Bianca channel overnight at 6097, however, both the 10 and 20 day Raff channels are around the 6150 area, so we may well get a dip from this area. The daily pivot is down at 6021 for today so support there, with 5990 below that. As you can see from the chart below there is a fairly decent looking 10 minute (rising) channel in play, with support around the monthly pivot area at 6078. I don’t think we will get as low as the pivot today, with the 6078 area holding for support, but if it breaks then its more likely. At the moment the various moving averages are all bullish so the bias is still long, and the Dax is just popping above its daily Raff channels too, after these big overnight rises, so a bit of a gap close start might well be likely.

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