I am just putting together another seminar on the 6th November 2015 as a few members couldn’t make the last London one, and wondered if you were also interested in attending?

The full details of what is covered can be found here –  and the cost is £300 for the day, including lunch and all drinks/snacks. Previous attendees have found the day very useful as we cover a range of areas plus some live trading too. Some previous feedback here

This one will be held at the Premier Inn on Bath Road, near Heathrow Airport, the hotel website is here. I have used this venue previously and it’s ideal for the seminar.

If you are interested please let me know.


Good morning. Turned into a slightly volatile day yesterday with a firm rebuttal of the 6400 level with a drop down to 6320 again. The 1995 S&P short worked well, though in the end closed far too early. Most of that drop down was due to the IMF report on global debt. The International Monetary Fund warned officials to protect their financial systems from possible instability as the Fed prepares to raise interest rates, saying shocks or policy missteps risk derailing the global economy and triggering equity market selloffs. This followed a separate report in which the IMF cut its outlook for global growth this year to 3.1 percent from a July forecast of 3.3 percent.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose for a seventh day, following U.S. shares higher, with Chinese markets set to open after a week-long holiday that saw a global equity rally.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.2 percent to 131.95 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for an almost seven-week high. Chinese markets, which were at the epicenter of August’s global turmoil, will trade for the first time since Sept. 30. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, a gauge of mainland shares traded in Hong Kong, has jumped 11 percent since then, with stocks around the world posting their longest rally since April. Investors are betting the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates near zero for longer, spurring demand for assets that benefit from an environment where borrowing is cheap.

“There’s been a little bit of a relief rally amid speculation the Fed will delay raising rates,” said Tim Schroeders, a portfolio manager who helps oversee about $1 billion in equities at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “I wouldn’t hold my breath that the rally can continue until the end of the year. Ultimately investors will come around and start to realize that the rate increase is being delayed because the economy isn’t that strong.”

Odds of a Fed liftoff in 2015 have fallen below 50 percent after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report last week reduced the case for the Fed to raise interest rates this year.

Japan’s Topix index lost 0.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.5 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.9 percent. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index was little changed. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to open.

H-share Rally
Futures on the H-share gauge slid 0.8 percent in most recent trading after the underlying measure surged 4.7 percent on Wednesday. Contracts on the FTSE China A50 gauge of the mainland’s largest stocks slipped 0.7 percent. Shanghai shares were hovering near their 2015 low before the holidays as mounting signs of a slowdown in China and its potential to spread throughout the world economy fueled a selloff last quarter.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.1 percent on Thursday. The underlying equity measure advanced 0.8 percent on Wednesday as biotechnology companies rebounded and energy shares extended their longest rally since December 2013. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose for a fourth day, adding 0.1 percent. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

The bulls were quite resilient yesterday but I am still feeling bearish, maybe was just 24 hours early but I think we will see some declines today and tomorrow. My 2 hour chart has resistance at 6400, thought he 30min is looking better for initial downside, with the 6350 level being the 25ema and a decent entry. With the pivot here too at 6352 I fell that this is a good level to short from and “shorting the rallies” is a good plan for the next 48 hours. We have China back from their 5 day break today , and the ASX has had a weak session dropping 0.7%. I think the FTSE will have a negative day today as well.

Good morning. Interesting day first thing with the drop as expected from the 6320 area down to 6260, before a second bite of the cherry at 6303 for a shorter run down. The bulls kept fighting back though and that 6330 level got hit – I thought it was going to blast through the 6345 stop level but it literally stopped dead there and dropped back down. Bit unlucky with that final short in the end. That said, I am not expecting us to push that much higher above the 6346 level as the 2 hour chart has resistance there and has gone bearish, so a possible dip to 6150ish looks viable for the next move.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks climbed, building on their biggest five-day advance in almost four years, as Samsung Electronics Co. jumped after quarterly profit topped estimates and investors awaited a Bank of Japan decision on monetary policy.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2 percent to 129.23 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo, as Samsung rallied 3.8 percent to provide the biggest boost to the regional gauge. The company posted third-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates as the weaker Korean currency boosted component revenue and blunted the impact of price cuts on Galaxy smartphones. Japan’s Topix index added 0.2 percent before BOJ board members and Governor Haruhiko Kuroda decide whether to expand already unprecedented monetary stimulus.

“As chances for additional stimulus are very low, even if stocks rise early on anticipation of easing, they will probably pull back in the afternoon,” said Chihiro Ohta, general manager of investment information at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “And with Kuroda’s press conference coming after the market close, today might be a day of simply waiting for further clues on direction.”

Thirty-four of 36 analysts forecast that the Japanese central bank will forgo further easing, with just two predicting a move, according to a Bloomberg survey. Fifteen are forecasting additional stimulus at the next meeting on Oct. 30.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 0.4 percent and New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index was little changed. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.4 percent. Mainland Chinese markets remain closed for a holiday, while Hong Kong is yet to open.

U.S. Shares
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.2 percent after concern over pharmaceutical pricing and company earnings spurred a slump for drugmakers on Tuesday. The underlying measure slipped 0.4 percent to end its longest winning streak this year.

“The recovery in U.S. markets began to show signs of fatigue,” Matthew Sherwood, head of investment strategy at Perpetual Ltd. in Sydney, which manages about $21 billion, wrote in an e-mail to clients. “There was little macro data out of note last night, which provided investors with time to analyze what had changed during the recent five-day rally and the answer was not a lot.” [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

I have a possible swing short entry around the 6347 area off the 2 hour chart so this is worth a go with a slight wider stop than I usually use for day trades with a view to holding this for a drop to the 6150ish area where there is support from the 25ema on the daily chart. Initially we are within a pretty decent looking 10 min channel. with resistance at 6330 first thing, and then 6345 later on, if we get a bounce from the 6303/6297 area – there is the bottom of that channel, the daily pivot and the bottom of the 10min channel at that area. I am wary of this bounce getting aead of itself as its had a good run and there are only so many up days you have in a row till the worm turns, profit is taken and we drop back down again. Generally I am feeling cautiously bearish at the moment.

Good morning. A pretty bullish day yesterday trending in one direction, fortunately taking our long from 6220 with it. As it happened it rose all the way to the 6320 level after the bell, even managing 6340 before its dropped back a bit overnight. Not by much though! The top of the 10 day Bianca channel is 6339 so the bulls will be keen to break this level this morning to push higher but the problem with rising too far too fast is that you then get a sharp correction in the other direction, so be cautious for longs as we start to test the upper bands of the daily channels (Raff 20 day is also 6340), and we also have a daily RSI figure of 66 currently.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose for a fifth day, following gains in U.S. equities, amid speculation that global central bank policy will remain accommodative to counteract weak economic growth.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.8 percent to 128.88 as of 9 a.m. in Tokyo, extending its five-day gain to 6.4 percent. Futures traders see only a 10 percent chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its Oct. 27-28 meeting following weaker-than-expected employment growth, while 17 of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect additional easing from the Bank of Japan by the end of the month.

“Markets continue to believe that weak data will pressure central banks in Europe and Japan to provide more stimulus and will delay the U.S. Fed in its pursuit to begin withdrawing monetary stimulus,” said Matthew Sherwood, head of investment strategy at Perpetual Ltd. in Sydney, which manages about $21 billion. This “continues to have investors believe that asset prices can defy the weak growth environment.”

Japan’s Topix index rose 1.4 percent after the yen weakened 0.5 percent on Monday. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to push through structural changes to recharge Japan’s economy got a boost as negotiators reached a deal on a Pacific trade pact that would create the world’s biggest regional trade zone. The Trans-Pacific Partnership still needs to be ratified by lawmakers in the 12 member nations.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 1.2 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index climbed 0.8 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 1 percent. Mainland Chinese markets remain closed for a holiday, while Hong Kong is yet to open. Futures on the Hang Seng Index gained 1.2 percent.

U.S. Services
The pace of growth in U.S. services industries cooled last month from the best readings in a decade, a sign consumers may be taking demand down to a more sustainable level in the face of global weakness. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index declined to 56.9 in September from 59 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said Monday.

Traders see a 35 percent probability that the Fed will raise its target rate by December, down from a 58 percent likelihood seen a month ago, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan starts a two-day meeting Tuesday. Two of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect additional stimulus this week, with 15 more forecasting the central bank will ease policy at its Oct. 30 meeting.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.2 percent Tuesday. The underlying measure added 1.8 percent on Monday to cap its longest stretch of gains this year. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

My bullishness has weakened today and I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a dip down to the 6220 area from where we are as I am writing this (6320) to test the bottom of the 30min channel. Below that we have the 30min 200ema at 6180ish, along with a major PRT support line. A mentioned above I am always a bit wary when we have a few up days on the trot, especially trending ones as its like its risen too far too fast, everything becomes over extended and therefore I expect a snap back at some point – same as if it drops too far too fast. So, for today I think a short now to target at the very least the daily pivot at 6288, and possibly 6220 below that. If the bulls defend that level then a rise back to the 6300 level and a period of consolidation after the recent rises while we await the next bit of news! My 10min chart is bearish to start the day, whilst the 30min is still bullish, but with the gap between the moving averages narrowing – so early bear will more than likely lead to a cross and a bear signal.

Older Posts »