Managed Trading

For a while now I have been asked if I can trade on behalf of other people and up till now I haven’t been able to. However, I am just working on a copy trading system whereby you can set up an account with my broker, and your account will automatically follow all my trades. The beauty of doing it this way is that you remain in control of the money in your account at all times and are free to withdraw/close the account at any time. The “fund” will be fully FCA registered and will be completely automated in terms of following the trades that I do.

The fund will be focussed purely on the FTSE but if there is demand then I may expand it to other instruments. I am aiming to put the trade plan trades through this fund, as well as any other FTSE trades that look like they will yield decent returns.

The amount deposited in the account is up to you, and the stake sizes your account will do will reflect your risk set up and account balance.

You can put as much into your account as you want, though there is a £5000 minimum investment. The more you put in the bigger size stake you will get (subject to leverage, risk profile and the stake size that I do for the trade.)

You will get a statement emailed to you each day for the trades from that day with full P&L.

Fees
There is no set up fee or annual management charge.

There is a 25% Performance fee charged monthly.

The performance fee is subject to a “high watermark”, meaning that it only gets charged for incrementally positive returns. For example, if your account gains 15% in a particular month (the fee is charged monthly) from say £10,000 to £11,500 then the fee is charged on the £1500 rise, 25% being £375. If the account value then fell by say 20% to £9,200 the next quarter, there would be no performance fees charged until the account value was once again above the £11,500 level – the previous high watermark level.

Results
I am starting initially with 5 friends and family to build up some real history to show the asset manager. The widget below will track the results. Full results are available here

If you are interested in this service please enter your details below and then click the link on the confirmation email, and I will be in touch when the service launches, which should be in the next month or two, so roughly May 2016

Support 6264 6247 6229 6225 6197 6145
Resistance 6285 6297 6312 6332
Good morning Nick. Bit of a weird one on the FTSE yesterday with a fairly narrow range and not much happening at the key levels. Mostly down to the expectation that the UK will now remain in the EU which also helped the pound gain against other currencies. With the US and the UK closed on Monday we will probably have more of the same today. We also have Yellen giving a speech later at 15:30 – dovish or hawkish? The highlight yesterday was the gold long getting some decent points though it then fell back to the 1220 level, just after we closed. Was $1300 a flash in the pan?

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian equities rose for a third day, supported by prospects for stimulus in China and Japan. A gauge of dollar strength held near a one-week low before a speech by the head of the Federal Reserve, while crude oil retreated with gold.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was headed for its first weekly gain since April. Japan’s Topix climbed to a one-month high as local newspapers reported the potential postponement of a sales-tax increase. The yen weakened as data showing a drop in Japan’s consumer prices reinforced expectations the Bank of Japan will add to record monetary stimulus. The British pound was the biggest gainer among major currencies this week as polls showed growing support for the U.K. to remain in the European Union before a June referendum. Oil pared its weekly advance and gold slid for an eighth day.

Investor sentiment picked up this week, with global stocks and emerging-market currencies paring their losses for May. Leaders from the Group of Seven nations are meeting in Japan and are set to issue a communique saying they’ve strengthened their economies sufficiently to avoid a crisis. China said Thursday it has room to borrow more to finance spending needed to shore up growth and Asahi newspaper reported that Japan will postpone a planned sales-tax hike. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak Friday, after a string of her colleagues have indicated their willingness to tighten policy.

“We are still a little cautious,” said Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners in Wellington, which manages about $7.2 billion. “Yellen is likely to continue with the rhetoric of wanting to hike and that’s their plan. Equity markets still offer value on a medium-term basis and it’s certainly the only place where you’re getting any sort of yield.”

Yellen’s appearance is impacting traders’ long weekend plans, read more here.

Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive of DoubleLine Capital LP in Los Angeles, said he expects a dovish speech from Yellen and predicts the Fed will refrain from raising interest rates in June unless traders in the futures market assign a probability of at least 50 percent to such a move. The odds pulled back to 28 percent on Thursday from 34 percent in the prior session, according to Fed Funds futures.

Japan’s core consumer prices fell 0.3 percent in April from a year earlier, following a similar decline the previous month, data showed Friday. Taiwan joins the U.S. in posting an update on first-quarter gross domestic product and a gauge of American consumer confidence is also due. Colombia’s central bank will probably raise its key rate for a ninth straight month to help contain inflation. Financial markets in the U.S. and the U.K. will be closed Monday for holidays.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent as of 1:50 p.m. Tokyo time, set for a 1.8 percent weekly advance. Benchmarks rose in Tokyo, Sydney and Singapore, while declines were seen in Hong Kong and Shanghai.

The Shanghai Composite Index was poised for its sixth weekly loss in a row, the longest losing streak in almost four years. Data on Friday showed industrial companies’ profit growth slowed to 4.2 percent in April from 11 percent the previous month. The finance ministry said the government’s debt is equivalent to 39 percent of GDP, relatively low by global standards, and there’s scope for more leverage.

Lenovo Group Ltd. fell to its lowest since 2011 in Hong Kong after the company announced revenue and earnings that fell short of analysts’ estimates. Toshiba Corp. jumped 10 percent to this year’s high after JPMorgan Chase & Co. upgraded its recommendation on the stock. Hyundai Merchant Marine Co. surged as much as 30 percent after Korea Development Bank said the company has made progress in negotiating discounts on leased vessels as part of a debt revamp plan.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed, after the gauge ended Thursday near to a one-month high. Evidence is mounting the economy is solid enough to merit Fed action, with a measure of data surprises surging to the highest since the start of last year.

Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, was little changed after losing 0.2 percent in each of the last two trading sessions. The yen weakened 0.1 percent versus the dollar, trimming its weekly gain to 0.2 percent.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rose 0.4 percent this week, snapping a run of three weekly losses. South Korea’s won and Taiwan’s dollar were Asia’s best performers, strengthening at least 0.7 percent during the period.

The currencies of oil-exporting nations were buoyed this week by an increase in crude prices. Canada’s dollar appreciated 0.9 percent, while the Russian ruble jumped 1.4 percent.

The pound climbed 1.1 percent this week. A poll by former Conservative lawmaker Michael Ashcroft showed almost 65 percent of voters believe the U.K. will remain in the EU after a June 23 referendum.

Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 0.7 percent to $49.12 a barrel. It’s gained about 3 percent this week, buoyed by a drop in U.S. oil inventories and output, and exceeded $50 in the last session for the first time this year. OPEC is unlikely to set a production target when it meets June 2 as it sticks with Saudi Arabia’s strategy of squeezing out rivals, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Gold fell as much as 0.7 percent to a three-month low of $1,211.68 an ounce. Bullion has retreated this month as speculation mounted that the U.S. will raise borrowing costs as early as June, a move that would erode the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets.

“Gold could test $1,200, a scenario that will grow more likely if the market consensus around Fed tightening builds,” said Jordan Eliseo, Sydney-based chief economist at trader Australian Bullion Co.

Copper and aluminum rose to two-week highs, while zinc gained ground for a third day. Iron-ore futures in Dalian, China, slid to a three-month low.

Bonds
The yield on U.S. Treasuries due in a decade rose one basis point to 1.4 percent, while that on similar-maturity Japanese debt fell one basis point to minus 0.12 percent.

Societe Generale SA sold 120 billion yen ($1.1 billion) of Samurai bonds Friday, the biggest deal this year in the Japanese yen debt market for overseas issuers. The issuance included seven-year notes at a yield of 0.28 percent. Toyota Motor Corp. sold 20-year yen bonds at a yield of 0.343 percent.

The cost of insuring corporate bonds against non-payment in the Asia-Pacific region is set for a third weekly drop, the longest streak of declines in two months. The Markit iTraxx Asia index is down four basis points since last Friday at 141 basis points, according to prices from Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. and data provider CMA. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

I imagine a lot of people will remain fairly noncommittal today ahead of the long weekend here and in the US, so we will probably have a fairly low volume day. Looking at the chart at the moment I can see a rise to 6302 where we have R2 and also a rising 30min channel and also just above the 20 day Bianca channel at 6297. As such it might well be worth a short here as the bulls might start taking some profit here from the 6110 longs. Above this we also have the top of the 20 day Raff at 6310. Support wise, we have the daily pivot at 6265 which has held well overnight, then 6247 for S1 and the 200ema on 30min and S2 at 6225 – a level that will more than likely hold if seen. So, I am going for a rise towards 6300 this morning then a slow drift back down this afternoon. It will be quite interesting to see if the bulls can break 6300 and if they do then 6332 is the top of the 10 day Bianca. Obviously for the 6302 short I hope they don’t!

Support 6231 6228 6190 6120
Resistance 6259 6265 6267 6278 6285 6289 6299
Good morning. The FTSE 100 rose and dipped a little bit yesterday on what was mostly a consolidation day after the rises on Tuesday. Didn’t quite reach the sell order at 6280, instead dropping from 6278 down to 6245. Overnight we have dropped off a bit further and the 30min chart has some bearish EMAs showing now, with resistance at 6260. We are also back within the 20 day Bianca channel with resistance at 6267. With the S&P dropping back below 2090 this rally form 6040 ‘might’ running out of steam.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose to a one-week high and the currencies of oil-exporting nations strengthened as Brent crude traded above $50 a barrel for the first time since November. Gold rebounded from a seven-week low as the dollar lost ground versus most of its major peers.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was set for its biggest two-day advance in more than a month, while Brent crude rallied for a third day after data showed U.S. stockpiles declined more than forecast. The Norwegian krone led gains among major currencies, while Malaysia’s ringgit was the best performer in emerging markets. New Zealand’s dollar sank to a two-month low, the Japanese yen strengthened and gold snapped a six-day losing streak.

Market sentiment has improved over the past week on optimism that the global economy can withstand the tighter monetary policy being telegraphed by the Federal Reserve. Polls show growing support for the U.K. to remain in the European Union, easing concerns over the prospect of “Brexit,” and a rally in commodities is warding off the threat of deflation. Still, investor confidence is fragile and investors will be keeping a close eye on Friday’s Japanese consumer prices report and comments the same day by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The odds of a U.S. hike in June are 34 percent, Fed Funds futures show.

“Markets are now more accepting of a U.S. rate increase,” said Mitsushige Akino, an executive officer at Ichiyoshi Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “The thought is that a hike won’t stop the U.S. economy from growing, but if the global economy slows, they have the means to change their policy.”

Australia reported a bigger drop in private capital expenditure for the first quarter than economists forecast, while New Zealand Finance Minister Bill English projected growing operating surpluses in his annual budget announcement. The U.K. and Spain will release details on Thursday of how their economies performed in the last quarter, while the U.S. has durable goods orders data for April due as well as weekly jobless claims figures. In addition, leaders from the Group of Seven nations are meeting in Japan to discuss topics including economic policy, climate change and boosting infrastructure investment.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent as of 12:56 p.m. Tokyo time, after gaining 1.5 percent in the last session. Japan’s Topix index rose as much as 1.1 percent, before paring the bulk of its advance as the yen strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index slid to its lowest in almost three months, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated from a three-week high.

Energy shares led gains in the region, with Cnooc Ltd. and Inpex Corp. climbing more than 2 percent. Mitsubishi Motor Corp. surged as much as 9.5 percent in Tokyo after the company booked a charge related to its fuel economy testing scandal, providing some clarity on the scale of the losses.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index declined 0.2 percent, after the benchmark gained more than 2 percent in the last two sessions. More than $900 billion has been added to the value of global equities this week, trimming this month’s losses to about $1 trillion.

Currencies
The krone rose 0.7 percent versus the greenback and the ringgit advanced 0.5 percent as higher crude prices brightened prospects for oil exports from Norway and Malaysia. The yen strengthened 0.5 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback against 10 major peers, declined 0.2 percent following a similar-sized drop in the last session.

The kiwi slid as much as 0.6 percent to its weakest level since March after Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd., the world’s largest dairy exporter and New Zealand’s biggest company, forecast a lower-than-expected payout to its farmer shareholders.

Commodities
Brent crude rose as much as 0.8 percent to $50.12 a barrel. U.S. inventories declined by 4.23 million barrels last week, exceeding an expected drop of 2 million, data showed Wednesday. In addition, attacks in Nigeria have cut production to a 20-year low and Venezuela is struggling to maintain output amid power cuts.

The final preparatory gathering of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries officials before a ministerial meeting next week didn’t include discussions on limiting output, signaling the group will stick with its strategy of defending market share.

Gold added 0.4 percent, after sliding 4.3 percent over the last six trading sessions as prospects for monetary tightening in the U.S. curbed the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets. Platinum and palladium gained more than 1 percent.

“It’s because of the weakening of the dollar that we see precious metals have come up a little,” said Brian Lan, managing director of Singapore-based GoldSilver Central Pte. “Previously we’ve seen gold come down sharply, so this is a slight correction.”
Investors are also waiting for more news on whether the Fed will raise interest rates in June, Lan said.

Copper advanced for a third day in London, while tin and lead were poised for their first gains in more than a week.

Bonds
U.S. Treasuries advanced following strong demand for the securities at auctions this week. The 10-year yield fell by two basis points to 1.85 percent, retreating from a three-week high. A gauge of demand at a $34 billion sale of five-year notes Wednesday rose to the highest since 2014 as primary dealers were awarded the lowest percentage at an offering of the securities in data going back to 2003. The offering came a day after a $26 billion two-year note sale also left primary dealers with the lowest award on record. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

For today I am thinking we are going to get a drop from the 6265 area down to the 6230 area. We have 6265 as the daily pivot and the 30min chart has gone bearish with 25ema resistance at 6260. We also have the top of the 20 day Bianca channel at 6267, along with the 20 day Raff at 6287. So there are a few signifcant resistance levels nearby. Admittedly with the recent surges we have broken though most resistance levels which is quite annoying for those of us that trade off S&R levels. Support wise, the 200ema on the daily chart is at 6229 currently, so as we are now above it then that is now support. We also have S2 at 6231 (S1 on live charts though), with round number support at 6200 below that. The green coral on the 2 hour chart will also be around 6200 later on today, though the Hull moving averages on the 2 hour have closed the gap slightly and could switch to short if it were to be bearish today. The longs might also be keen to start banking the profits ahead of the bank holiday weekend. So, cautiously bearish for today.

Support 6251 6242 6229 6203 6168
Resistance 6285 6286 6299 6316
Good morning. Well those two FTSE shorts yesterday didn’t really work out! The Dax at 9930 got a few but otherwise it was a one way rocket from the initial dip down to 6110. Unfortunately trending days don’t suit my style as I tend to enter off key levels, but on a trending day they just get broken. The rise was put down, initially, to the Brexit polls and the latest view being that we are staying in the EU. I am still sure its already a foregone conclusion anyway! In the US for the afternoon new home sales data was better than forecast and possibly an indicator that all is well in the US and interest rate rises aren’t such a big deal. Very small dividend today to bear in mind, just 0.8.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rebounded from a seven-week low, joining a rally in U.S. and European shares as a surge in U.S. home sales fueled speculation the world’s largest economy can withstand higher interest rates. Crude oil rose with copper as a gauge of dollar strength retreated from a two-month high.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed by the most in a month as U.S. and U.K. equity index futures advanced. South Korea’s won led gains among major currencies, while the yuan traded near a three-month low after China’s central bank set the weakest reference rate in five years. Crude rallied above $49 a barrel as copper headed for its highest close in a week. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries held near a three-week high.

After swinging around since the release of the Fed’s April meeting minutes last week, markets seem to have grown comfortable with the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates. Traders are now pricing in a better-than-even chance of a boost to borrowing costs in July and American data on Tuesday showed purchases of new homes surged in April to the highest since the start of 2008.
“Optimism of improving global growth is outweighing most investors’ fears of higher U.S. interest rates,” Mongkol Puangpetra, an investment strategist at KTB Securities (Thailand) Co. Ltd., said by phone in Bangkok “The expected rise in U.S. rates still remains a major risk to emerging markets.”

Data on U.S. services output and house prices is due Wednesday, while Canada’s central bank will review interest rates. A gauge of German business confidence is also scheduled and Italy will report industrial orders figures for March. Euro-area finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund reached an agreement that will allow for the release of 10.3 billion euros ($11.5 billion) of aid to Greece and have committed to taking steps to relieve the burden of the nation’s 321 billion euros of debt. Leaders from the Group of Seven nations will meet for talks in Japan from Thursday.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 1.7 percent as of 1:21 p.m. Tokyo time, driven by gains in banking stocks. With the exception of Malaysia, benchmarks rallied across the region, led by a 2.5 percent jump in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index.

China Coal Energy Co. jumped 10 percent in Hong Kong after Citigroup Inc. upgraded its recommendation on the stock amid speculation the nation’s four biggest coal producers will increase prices in June. Sony Corp. surged as much as 7.3 percent in Tokyo as investors ignored a weak profit forecast, looking instead to the company’s long-term prospects in entertainment and sensors needed for driverless cars. Toyota Motor Corp. advanced the most in two weeks after the company announced it will invest in Uber Technologies Inc.

Futures on the S&P 500 added 0.2 percent following the U.S. benchmark’s 1.4 percent gain in the last session. The probability of a Fed rate hike in June has ticked up to 34 percent, from 12 percent a week ago, while odds of an increase by July are now at 54 percent, according to Fed funds futures tracked by Bloomberg.

“Before, there was a sense that higher rates would spell trouble, but the market has had time to digest that,” said Bill Schultz, who oversees $1.2 billion as chief investment officer at McQueen, Ball & Associates Inc. in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. “People may be coming around on the idea of a rate hike as an indication of economic strength.”

Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.1 percent, trimming this month’s advance to 3.4 percent. The yen was little changed near 110 versus the greenback after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted the Japanese currency would slide 12 percent by this time next year.

While the Fed is considering adding to a December interest-rate increase, central banks in the euro region and Japan are pursuing record monetary-easing programs to spur growth.

Fed officials including the presidents of the central bank’s regional arms in San Francisco, Boston and Philadelphia have spoken this month in support of higher borrowing costs. Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak on Friday.

The won strengthened 0.8 percent, paring this month’s loss to less than 4 percent, as the equities rally bolstered demand for emerging-market assets. The ringgit strengthened 0.4 percent as the increase in oil prices brightened prospects for Malaysia, Asia’s only major net exporter of crude.

The yuan was little changed, having dropped as much as 0.1 percent to 6.5658 per dollar after the People’s Bank of China cut its reference rate for the currency by 0.34 percent to the weakest since March 2011. Steep drops in the fixing in early January raised concern about the health of China’s economy, spurring a $7 trillion selloff in global equities in the first two weeks of that month. The earliest batch of private economic indicators point to sluggish growth in the nation for May.

Commodities
Crude oil rose as much as 1.5 percent to a seven-month high of $49.35 a barrel in New York as weekly U.S. industry data showed stockpiles declined, easing a glut. Inventories dropped by 5.14 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute was said to report. Figures from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday are also forecast to show supplies fell.

Copper advanced 0.6 percent in London, while nickel gained 0.7 percent. Gold rose 0.1 percent, snapping a five-day losing streak that marked its longest run of declines since November.

Bonds
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries was little changed at 1.86 percent. It’s averaged 1.87 percent so far in 2016.

“The Treasury yield could end up a little bit above 2 percent” as the Fed raises rates, said Stephen Roberts, an economist at Laminar Group Pty, a Melbourne-based fixed-income adviser. “The U.S., of developed economies, has had the best of the economic recovery we’ve had since the global financial crisis.”

The cost of insuring corporate bonds against non-payment in Australia fell the most in a month on Wednesday, traders of credit-default swaps said. The Markit iTraxx Australia index dropped four basis points to 128.5 basis points in morning trading in Sydney, Citigroup Inc.’s prices show. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

After that rise yesterday we have broken above both the Bianca daily channels, currently sitting at 6224 and 6242, as well as the 20 day Raff at 6245. The 10 day Raff for today has resistance at the 6285 area, along with a PRT line there, so thats the next area of resistance, and after that 6315ish. We might well see a little dip back today after the strong rise yesterday, however the trend at the moment is firmly up (stating the obvious there). The 30min chart is showing support at the 6250 and 6232 areas, so bulls late to the party will be looking at entering at these levels. To be honest though the rise was built on nothing particularly strong… it just really wanted to bounce! So for today, cautiously bearish at 6285 for a dip down towards 6230.

Support 6124 6113 6080 6061
Resistance 6143 6145 6168 6193 6194
Good morning. Slightly frustrating yesterday in that it followed the arrows but just missed the orders for the long at 6120 and the short at 6180 by a few points. After the initial rise and dip it was a fairly flat day hovering around the 6140 area for the remainder of the day. Overnight has been fairly flat as well. Asian equities traded lower across the board with Fed rate hike concerns and weaker energy prices a driving force for price action. We have a tiny dividend of 0.8 this week so not likely to see much buying at the bell tomorrow.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

  • Futures show 54% chance U.S. interest rates to rise by July
  • Gold slips for fifth day in a row as nickel rebounds

Asian equities sank toward a seven-week low and the dollar strengthened as speculation mounted that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as early as next month. Crude oil fell with gold.

All 10 industry groups declined on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed to a two-month high. Malaysia’s ringgit led losses among major currencies, while Australia’s dollar weakened as central bank comments fanned speculation borrowing costs will be lowered. U.S. crude traded near $48 a barrel as Canada worked to resume output following devastating wildfires. Gold dropped for the fifth day in a row, its longest losing streak since November.

Fed Funds futures are indicating for the first time since March a better-than-even chance that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by its July meeting. The speculation is driving a dollar rally that’s somewhat reminiscent of early January, when a global equities selloff wiped out about $7 trillion of market value in the wake of a December rate hike by the Fed. Unlike back then, oil and China’s yuan are showing signs of stability and James Gorman, chief executive officer of Morgan Stanley, said he expects financial markets to rebound in a return to a “more normal environment.”

“If the U.S. does raise borrowing costs, we could see some risk-avoiding moves like we had last December,” said Toshihiko Matsuno, chief strategist at SMBC Friend Securities Co. in Tokyo. “The market’s wary of this.”

U.S. data on Tuesday are forecast to show sales of new homes climbed for the first time in April. Germany has a report on investor confidence due, while France has a gauge of business sentiment coming. Euro-area finance ministers will meet to discuss how to conclude Greece’s bailout review, including debt-relief measures and contingency plans in case budget targets are missed. Hungary’s central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates, while Nigeria’s is seen boosting borrowing costs. Turkey also has a policy meeting scheduled.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.6 percent as of 1:04 p.m. Tokyo time. Benchmark stock gauges fell across most of the region, led by declines in Shanghai and Tokyo.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed, after the benchmark declined 0.2 percent in the last session. Contracts on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index fell 0.3 percent.

“The market has good reason not to completely rule out a Fed hike over the next few months,” Mark Smith, a senior economist in Auckland at ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd., said in a client note. “Even so, the Fed is likely to move carefully and slowly.”

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Monday he doesn’t expect a U.K. vote on European Union membership next month to influence the U.S. central bank’s decision. The San Francisco Fed’s John Williams said two to three rate increases this year are still “about right,” a sentiment echoed by the Fed’s Philadelphia president Patrick Harker. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to deliver remarks on Friday.

Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback against 10 major peers, rose 0.1 percent. The Japanese yen weakened 0.2 percent after strengthening 0.8 percent on Monday.

The yuan was the most resilient of 31 major currencies, edging 0.04 percent higher versus the dollar and trimming this year’s loss to 0.9 percent. China’s central bank scrapped a market-based mechanism for managing the currency on Jan. 4, returning to a system whereby the exchange rate is based on what suits authorities the best, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people close to the People’s Bank of China.

The Aussie dropped as much as 0.6 percent after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said inflation is too low, reinforcing expectations of further interest-rate cuts. The monetary authority lowered its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a record-low 1.75 percent at the last review on May 3.

The ringgit slid 0.8 percent as the drop in oil prices dimmed prospects for Malaysia, Asia’s only major net exporter of crude. The Kiwi weakened 0.7 percent.

Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4 percent to $47.89 a barrel before weekly U.S. government data forecast to show crude stockpiles declined amid a glut. All of the Canadian oil-sands facilities that workers evacuated as a wildfire spread are being allowed to prepare for restart as cool, humid weather has helped contain the inferno.

Gold retreated 0.3 percent, after sinking more than 2 percent over the last four days. The prospect of a U.S. rate hike diminishes the precious metal’s appeal as a store of value.

Nickel added 1 percent on the London Metal Exchange, after sliding 2 percent in the last session. Copper snapped a four-day losing streak.

Bonds
Australian government debt recovered from earlier losses, with 10-year yields little changed at 2.29 percent after rising as high as 2.32 percent. Similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries yielded 1.83 percent, similar to Monday’s closing level.

Deutsche Bank AG had its credit rating cut by Moody’s Investors Service Monday, with the agency claiming the German lender faced mounting challenges in executing a turnaround plan. The bank’s senior unsecured debt rating was lowered to Baa2 from Baa1, leaving it two levels above junk. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction

Today we have the pivot at 6145, and also the top of a declining channel on the 10 minute there. We also have the 30 min coral line which has turned red (signalling a downtrend) so with 3 resistance levels there and a fairly flat session yesterday afternoon this could well be worth a short at this area. Above this we have the top of both the Bianca channels at 6193 so if the bulls were to pull it out the bag today this area is likely to cause a stall, and should see some bears appear. Whilst we are below 6150 then I am thinking that we will likely see 6080 or lower again. The 2 hour chart Hull moving averages are closing their gap and if we are bearish today are likely to cross to the downside. We tested the 25ema on the daily chart yesterday at 6173 and dropped off from there, so the trend is still bearish for the moment. The main support on the 2hour chart is 6120 still so the bears will be keen to break that first thing.

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